Grains Report 02/23/2023

DJ USDA FORUM: Wheat, Corn, Soybean Planted Acreage – Feb 23
Data from 2023 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.
In Million Acres:
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1/
Wheat 50.1 46.1 47.8 45.5 44.5 46.7 45.7 49.5
Corn 94.0 90.2 88.9 89.7 90.7 93.3 88.6 91.0
Soybeans 83.5 90.2 89.2 76.1 83.4 87.2 87.5 87.5
Total 227.6 226.4 225.9 211.3 218.5 227.2 221.8 228.0
1/ Projection
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Note: Totals May not add due to rounding.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market. News that Russia has launched a new offensive in Ukraine provided much of thew support this week. Russia appears to be sending three divisions across the border to fight and it looks as though this could be a major operation for the Russian army. Wire report now suggest that Russia has now committed almost its entire army to the war. Fears of deliveries of Wheat from the Black Sea will be cut significantly are surfacing again. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Russia is said to be plotting a huge new invasion of Ukraine that could prevent farmers in Ukraine from harvesting Wheat and planting Corn. Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market. However, Russian production estimates have dropped recently. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see big snows. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with obj3ectives of 704, 698, and 689 March, Support is at 762, 713, and 656 March, with resistance at 760, 773, and 7976 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 875 and 848 March. Support is at 871, 870, and 859 March, with resistance at 916, 942, and 946 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 911, 907, and 897 March, and resistance is at 936, 942, and 946 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday as the market is in a free fall from recent highs near 1800 March. Reports indicate that the farmers have been selling and ideas are that they might dump on the market if they think a big crop is coming at the end of the new growing season that is now getting ready to start in southern growing areas. Demand has been good from domestic sources. Export demand has been uneven. Demand has been an issue for the market all year. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1690, 1683, and 1666 March and resistance is at 1729, 1746, and 1764 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lowe, but Corn held pretty well as demand is slowly improving. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America and US demand has improved because of the price differentials. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports, so the US has chance now to see export demand improve more than it has already. The export demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported. Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China has been buying the surplus. The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 672, 669, and 666 March, and resistance is at 682, 689, and 693 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 357, 348, and 335 March, and resistance is at 368, 370, and 375 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower, but Soybean Oil closed higher. The market is weaker in anticipation of the South American harvest coming to export channels in the near term. It remains hot and dry in Argentina and southern Brazil and crop conditions are getting worse. However, weather is becoming less important now as the harvest is already underway in central and northern Brazil and will spread south soon. Central and northern Brazil have seen harvest operations interrupted with too much rain. Soybean Meal saw strong weekly export sales as Argentina is having to withdraw from the market for Soy products sales due to the drought in the country and the fact that they have already sold a lot of Soybeans into the world market. They are now buying from Brazil. The harvest in Brazil is slowly expanding in central and northern areas. These areas have seen too much rain and the harvest has been slow. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take a few more weeks as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1532, 1517, and 1511 March, and resistance is at 1556, 1562, and 1574 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 488.00, 478.00, and 472.00 March, and resistance is at 508.00, 514.00, and 520.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6350, 6710, and 6950 March. Support is at 6210, 6100, and 6070 March, with resistance at 6360, 6520, and 6500 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on ideas of stronger demand due to the coming Ramadan holiday period and also on a weaker Ringgit. China was a noted buyer of Palm Oil today. Indonesia is now revoking some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing but will start to decrease soon as most have now had Covid. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was mostly slightly lower in consolidation trading. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 829.00, 820.00, and 819.00 March, with resistance at 843.00, 849.00, and 852.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4170 and 4350 May. Support is at 4270, 4090, and 34030 May, with resistance at 4230, 4280, and 4400 May.

DJ Canadian oilseeds monthly crush – January 2023
WINNIPEG — Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of January 2023, reported by Statistics Canada
are as follows.
Figures are in tonnes:
Year Ago 2022/23 2021/22
Canola Dec 2022 Dec 2021 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 826,445 704,696 4,016,019 3,802,298
Oil produced 345,687 293,945 1,666,970 1,587,501
Meal produced 485,798 422,998 2,381,130 2,251,153
Soybeans
Seed crushed 158,688 162,983 767,223 743,473
Oil produced 28,934 29,853 143,196 137,058
Meal produced 120,468 126,957 595,999 571,901
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February
87 Mar
180 Mar
125 Mar
115 Mar

March
90 Mar
180 Mar
120 Mar
115 Mar

April
95 May
1780 May
1215 May
115 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 17
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 818.50 -5.00 Mar 2023 up 0.25
Track Thunder Bay 855.30 35.00 May 2023 up 2.10
Track Vancouver 882.30 62.00 May 2023 up 2.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 985.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 985.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 975.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
March 995.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 985.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 740.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4250.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 243.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.431)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 163,310 lots, or 9.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,609 5,621 5,559 5,559 5,594 5,591 -3 859 4,918
May-23 5,652 5,682 5,595 5,604 5,631 5,639 8 127,995 171,704
Jul-23 5,566 5,598 5,520 5,525 5,558 5,558 0 20,297 56,440
Sep-23 5,531 5,551 5,482 5,486 5,524 5,520 -4 2,379 6,354
Nov-23 5,506 5,524 5,458 5,464 5,495 5,493 -2 11,712 23,742
Jan-24 5,486 5,515 5,445 5,450 5,467 5,475 8 68 158
Corn
Turnover: 402,201 lots, or 11.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,841 2,846 2,831 2,833 2,838 2,838 0 6,781 31,234
May-23 2,876 2,881 2,862 2,863 2,873 2,871 -2 223,439 677,177
Jul-23 2,873 2,881 2,861 2,866 2,872 2,870 -2 97,924 550,307
Sep-23 2,835 2,842 2,824 2,827 2,834 2,834 0 15,615 94,495
Nov-23 2,790 2,799 2,787 2,789 2,792 2,792 0 57,880 188,155
Jan-24 2,771 2,775 2,765 2,767 2,768 2,769 1 562 4,696
Soymeal
Turnover: 714,053 lots, or 27.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 4,255 4,260 4,225 4,228 4,261 4,243 -18 18,867 54,722
May-23 3,870 3,875 3,835 3,840 3,873 3,851 -22 502,713 1,303,371
Jul-23 3,860 3,860 3,823 3,828 3,861 3,840 -21 25,651 199,825
Aug-23 3,900 3,903 3,871 3,874 3,906 3,886 -20 20,541 130,805
Sep-23 3,881 3,888 3,853 3,859 3,891 3,867 -24 111,693 400,448
Nov-23 3,848 3,854 3,829 3,833 3,855 3,840 -15 20,046 68,677
Dec-23 3,796 3,804 3,783 3,787 3,803 3,790 -13 3,322 25,398
Jan-24 3,734 3,973 3,715 3,719 3,735 3,726 -9 11,220 24,235
Palm Oil
Turnover: 757,426 lots, or 62.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 8,194 8,288 8,140 8,166 8,194 8,224 30 1,276 3,109
Apr-23 8,244 8,332 8,174 8,206 8,250 8,260 10 14,434 83,196
May-23 8,228 8,324 8,168 8,210 8,240 8,252 12 670,815 495,237
Jun-23 8,220 8,296 8,150 8,188 8,216 8,230 14 8,068 69,893
Jul-23 8,196 8,268 8,126 8,128 8,192 8,204 12 9,042 43,770
Aug-23 8,158 8,220 8,072 8,102 8,162 8,152 -10 8,813 29,866
Sep-23 8,130 8,188 8,026 8,060 8,138 8,114 -24 40,842 56,766
Oct-23 8,108 8,160 8,000 8,038 8,106 8,092 -14 3,948 13,573
Nov-23 8,036 8,036 7,972 7,972 8,062 7,998 -64 12 410
Dec-23 8,042 8,048 7,958 7,958 8,016 8,016 0 11 87
Jan-24 8,010 8,030 7,924 7,942 7,990 7,966 -24 163 290
Feb-24 7,994 7,994 7,990 7,990 7,894 7,992 98 2 3
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 494,956 lots, or 43.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 9,272 9,318 9,210 9,232 9,292 9,280 -12 1,000 1,847
May-23 8,888 8,932 8,818 8,844 8,902 8,878 -24 431,340 483,488
Jul-23 8,838 8,872 8,772 8,792 8,846 8,826 -20 9,333 79,446
Aug-23 8,808 8,846 8,750 8,768 8,820 8,794 -26 2,601 53,040
Sep-23 8,758 8,790 8,694 8,718 8,766 8,744 -22 34,610 87,254
Nov-23 8,686 8,722 8,634 8,662 8,700 8,680 -20 6,675 35,143
Dec-23 8,676 8,718 8,626 8,660 8,702 8,676 -26 7,812 16,407
Jan-24 8,652 8,692 8,616 8,638 8,678 8,658 -20 1,585 1,826
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322