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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Feb 9  

    For the week ended Feb 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in  

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,  

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total  

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.  

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and  

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and  

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA   

                    wk’s net chg           total  

                   in commitments       commitments      undlvd sales  

                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr  

wheat              131.4       19.5   16302.0   17347.1   3838.8    310.5  

  hrw               93.9       10.0    4486.7    6894.2    894.5    101.3  

  srw               18.0        9.5    2551.3    2560.1    634.4    134.1  

  hrs               47.5        0.0    4875.9    4648.5   1167.7     49.8  

  white            -28.9        0.0    4075.9    3076.6   1058.9     23.4  

  durum              0.8        0.0     312.0     167.7     83.2      1.9  

corn              1160.3       10.0   26792.2   45712.4  13786.7   1437.1  

soybeans           459.4      185.0   47730.9   46759.7  10314.0    903.0  

soymeal            181.7        0.9    7216.7    7722.0   3018.6     53.4  

soyoil               1.9        0.0      43.3     487.6     18.2      0.6  

upland cotton      262.8        4.8    9716.0   12176.0   4916.8   1261.2  

pima cotton          1.3        0.0     131.7     399.8     48.6      3.5  

sorghum             53.0        0.0     784.2    6356.7    490.5      0.0  

barley               0.0        0.0      11.6      28.5      4.4      0.0  

rice               112.8        0.0    1276.6    2108.3    498.0      0.0  

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Feb 8 

  U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,  

  cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and  

  Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)  

  bales.  

  Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey  

  date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.  

              ======U.S.======      ================WORLD===================  

                Ending Stocks           Exports               Production  

          22/23  21/22  20/21 : 22/23  21/22    20/21 : 22/23    21/22  20/21   

Soybeans  225.0  274.0  257.0 :167.47  153.89  164.99 : 383.01  358.00  368.52  

 Brazil      na     na     na : 92.00   79.12   81.65 : 153.00  129.50  139.50  

 Argentina   na     na     na :  4.20    2.86    5.20 :  41.00   43.90   46.20  

 China       na     na     na :  0.10    0.10    0.07 :  20.33   16.40   19.60  

Soyoil    1,936  1,991  2,131 : 12.10   12.14   12.61 :  60.91   59.02   59.32  

Corn      1,267  1,377  1,235 :181.07  204.73  182.70 :  1,151   1,216   1,130  

 China       na     na     na :  0.02    0.00    0.00 : 277.20  272.55  260.67  

 Argentina   na     na     na : 35.00   34.00   40.94 :  47.00   49.50   52.00  

 S.Africa    na     na     na :  3.40    3.20    3.73 :  16.70   16.10   16.95  

Cotton     4.30   3.75   3.15 : 40.38   42.86   48.78 : 114.37  115.71  111.49  

All Wheat   568    698    845 :212.95  202.86  203.33 : 783.80  779.33  774.55  

 China       na     na     na :  0.90    0.88    0.76 : 137.72  136.95  134.25  

European  

    Union    na     na     na : 37.00   31.92   29.74 : 134.70  138.22  126.68  

 Canada      na     na     na : 25.00   15.12   26.43 :  33.82   22.42   35.44  

 Argentina   na     na     na :  7.50   15.98   11.53 :  12.50   22.15   17.64  

 Australia   na     na     na : 28.00   27.51   23.77 :  38.00   36.24   31.92  

 Russia      na     na     na : 43.50   33.00   39.10 :  92.00   75.16   85.35  

 Ukraine     na     na     na : 13.50   18.84   16.85 :  21.00   33.01   25.42  

Sorghum    25.0   47.0   20.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na  

Barley     62.0   42.0   71.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na  

Oats       32.0   33.0   38.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na  

Rice       33.1   39.7   43.7 : 54.05   56.70   51.16 : 502.98  514.80  509.33  

TABLE-USDA February crop supply/demand report summary – Reuters News 

08-Feb-2023 11:11:29 AM 

To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here

 – The following tables summarize trade expectations and key figures in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which were released on Wednesday. 

U.S. ending stocks figures are quoted in billions of bushels while world ending stocks and production figures are quoted in millions of tonnes. 

 

USDA 2022-23 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks  

USDA Feb.

Average of 

Range of 

USDA Jan. 

2022-23

analysts’ 

analysts’ 

2022-23 

end-stocks

estimates 

estimates 

end-stocks 

estimates

estimates

Wheat  

0.568 

0.576 

0.557-0.612 

0.567 

Corn  

1.267 

1.266 

1.200-1.335 

1.242 

Soybeans 

0.225 

0.211 

0.176-0.230 

0.210 

 

USDA 2022-23 world grain and soybean ending stocks  

USDA Feb.

Average of 

Range of 

USDA Jan. 

2022-23

analysts’ 

analysts’ 

2022-23 

end-stocks

estimates 

estimates 

end-stocks 

estimates

estimates

Wheat  

269.34 

268.56 

266.00-270.20 

268.39 

Corn  

295.28 

294.71 

292.50-297.80 

296.42 

Soybeans 

102.03 

102.03 

100.00-105.50 

103.52 

 

USDA 2022-23 South American corn and soy production  

USDA Feb.

Average of 

Range of 

USDA Jan. 

2022-23

analysts’ 

analysts’ 

2022-23 

estimate

estimates 

estimates 

estimate 

ARGENTINA  
Corn 

47.00 

48.50 

44.00-51.50 

52.00 

Soybeans 

41.00 

42.34 

38.00-45.00 

45.50 

BRAZIL 
Corn

125.00 

125.18 

124.00-129.88 

125.00 

Soybeans 

153.00 

153.01 

152.00-154.20 

153.00 

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets were higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports.  USDA made only minor changes to the demand data and ending stocks were increased by just one million bushels.  Trends are sideways in all three markets on the daily and weekly charts.   Russia is said to be plotting a huge new invasion of Ukraine that could prevent farmers in Ukraine from harvesting Whet and planting Corn.  Russia has a large production and is undercutting most world prices in the international market.  However, Russian production estimates have dropped recently.  The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.  Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers in the southeastern areas.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed,  Support is at 742, 729, and 721 March, with resistance at 767, 776, and 784 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 910 March.  Support is at 866, 859, and 850 March, with resistance at 901, 915, and 925 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 912, 907, and 897 March, and resistance is at 932, 935, and 942 March. 

RICE:                                                 

General Comments:  :  Rice was higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports.  The market had expected reductions in demand and increases in ending stocks.  That is what they got, but not at levels big enough to keep the selling pressure on so the market rallied in a major way.  Demand has been an issue for the market all year.  There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice and although some Rice moved in Tein quiet trading at what were called very good prices.  Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports and solid for domestic uses.   

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1776, 1760, and 1746 March and resistance is at 1801, 1825, and 1836 March.

CORN AND OATS 

General Comments:  Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports.  USDA cut ethanol demand and increased ending stocks for Corn by 25 million bushels.  There had been fears of a cut to export demand and a larger increase in ending stocks estimates, but USDA chose to hold off on any export demand changes for now.  Both markets remain in up trends established in early December although the short term trend in both is now sideways.  The export demand was solid last week even though demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives.  Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop although losses are now being reported.   Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought and losses could be large.  The Brazil Winter crop is harvested and China is buying the surplus.  The Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions.  The next Winter crop is going into the ground in good conditions, but it has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Corn planting is becoming delayed as well.  There are concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales.  China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 672, 669, and 666 March, and resistance is at 680, 682, and 686 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 381, 377, and 372 March, and resistance is at 392, 399, and 405 March. 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports.  USDA cut domestic demand and increased ending stocks which was a small surprise for the market.  But it was not real bearish so the market embarked on a sell the rumor and buy the fact type of trade.  USDA left Brazil production estimates unchanged but cut back on production estimates for Argentina.  Soybeans seem to have settled into a trading range amid conflicting fundamentals and before the release of the next WASDE reports by USDA later today,  The pattern in southern Brazil and Argentina is dry again.  The harvest in Brazil is slowly expanding in central and northern areas.  These areas have seen too much rain and the harvest has been slow.  Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south.  Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now although most estimates remain near 153 million tons.  Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.  Production estimates are now closer to 435 million tons.  Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take a few more weeks as a very large part of the population now has Covid.  This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1506, 1503, and 1487 March, and resistance is at 1525, 1540, and 1544 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 478.00, 470.00, and 472.00 March, and resistance is at 488.00, 500.00, and 502.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 6000, 5960, and 5840 March, with resistance at 6150, 6240, and 6360 March. 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:   Palm Oil closed lower today on fwhat was called speculative profit taking.  Export demand was less last month but could improve as the new controls in Indonesia are enacted.  Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve.  China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again.  However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing but will start to decrease soon as most have now had Covid.  Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market.  There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia.  Canola was  a little lower yesterday.  Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.  Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.  Producers are holding on t crops right now as the prices rally and will wait for a top before selling again.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 820.00, 815.00, and 799.00 March, with resistance at 837.00, 843.00, and 849.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4240 and 4510 March.  Support is at 3890, 3800, and 3720 April, with resistance at 4040, 4130, and 4250 April. 

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:  Rain south and east and snow north and west.  Temperatures should average near to above normal. 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn 

HRW 

SRW 

Soybeans 

Soybean Meal 

Soybean Oil 

February 

90 Mar 

185 Mar 

140 Mar 

130 Mar 

 

March 

99 Mar 

180 Mar 

125 Mar 

120 Mar 

April 

99 May  

175 May 

120 May  

115 May 

 

 

DJ ICE Canola Cash Close – Feb 7 

     WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from  

ICE Futures for Feb. 7, 2023.   

     Source:  ICE Futures   

CANOLA  

1 Canada NCC Best Bid   

                 Spot Price     Basis  Contract    Change  

*Par Region          828.50     -5.00    Mar 23   up 1.90  

Basis: Thunder Bay   862.50     30.00    Mar 23   dn 1.00  

Basis: Vancouver     894.50     62.00    Mar 23   dn 1.00   

*Quote for previous day   

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or  

204-414-9084)  

  

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 9 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.  

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Feb           957.50     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –  

March         962.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Apr/May/Jun   967.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Jul/Aug/Sep   962.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Feb           967.50     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –  

March         972.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Apr/May/Jun   977.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Jul/Aug/Sep   972.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –  

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Feb           935.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Feb           710.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Feb           3950.00    +50.00      Unquoted   –        –  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Feb           237.00     -01.00      Unquoted   –        –   

($1=MYR4.312)  

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 09 

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 93,567 lots, or 5.18 billion yuan  

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open  

                                                  Settle                                Interest  

Mar-23     5,517     5,532     5,502     5,507     5,517     5,517         0     2,911    12,301  

May-23     5,557     5,568     5,529     5,535     5,537     5,549        12    75,564   150,514  

Jul-23     5,492     5,515     5,478     5,485     5,481     5,496        15    12,013    42,412  

Sep-23     5,478     5,489     5,462     5,467     5,463     5,477        14       867     5,965  

Nov-23     5,473     5,477     5,450     5,453     5,452     5,462        10     2,208    17,515  

Jan-24     5,444     5,444     5,436     5,436     5,415     5,438        23         4        66  

Corn  

Turnover: 599,392 lots, or 16.70 billion yuan  

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open  

                                                  Settle                                Interest  

Mar-23     2,791     2,791     2,764     2,771     2,787     2,772       -15   283,713   180,795  

May-23     2,816     2,821     2,797     2,801     2,819     2,804       -15   175,094   559,042  

Jul-23     2,815     2,816     2,796     2,801     2,813     2,801       -12    92,869   494,940  

Sep-23     2,796     2,799     2,782     2,789     2,797     2,787       -10     9,672    66,745  

Nov-23     2,767     2,767     2,753     2,758     2,763     2,756        -7    36,886   163,555  

Jan-24     2,746     2,746     2,738     2,742     2,747     2,742        -5     1,158     3,621  

Soymeal  

Turnover: 1,138,190 lots, or 4.41 billion yuan  

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open  

                                                  Settle                                  Interest  

Mar-23     4,275     4,289     4,227     4,233     4,264     4,262        -2    67,991     119,698  

May-23     3,870     3,892     3,815     3,819     3,865     3,852       -13   841,016   1,329,160  

Jul-23     3,849     3,864     3,788     3,789     3,841     3,832        -9    52,657     179,343  

Aug-23     3,900     3,911     3,840     3,841     3,890     3,880       -10    32,561     120,541  

Sep-23     3,866     3,879     3,808     3,810     3,858     3,842       -16   102,712     302,926  

Nov-23     3,820     3,839     3,775     3,778     3,822     3,813        -9    29,004      62,537  

Dec-23     3,785     3,790     3,741     3,742     3,775     3,766        -9     7,368      24,617  

Jan-24     3,697     3,711     3,665     3,666     3,697     3,686       -11     4,881      15,498  

Palm Oil  

Turnover: 590,160 lots, or 4.73 billion yuan  

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open  

                                                  Settle                                Interest  

Feb-23         –         –         –     7,868     7,868     7,868         0         0     1,625  

Mar-23     7,998     8,046     7,924     7,986     7,972     7,994        22    10,051    39,028  

Apr-23     8,050     8,090     7,968     8,028     8,016     8,036        20    11,700    82,010  

May-23     8,020     8,086     7,952     8,008     8,014     8,020         6   519,976   473,015  

Jun-23     8,058     8,076     7,944     8,000     8,000     8,022        22     8,597    53,105  

Jul-23     7,968     8,048     7,928     7,972     7,968     7,992        24     6,604    35,923  

Aug-23     7,948     7,992     7,884     7,936     7,920     7,948        28     6,063    23,207  

Sep-23     7,904     7,972     7,862     7,914     7,896     7,922        26    24,454    36,075  

Oct-23     7,914     7,962     7,854     7,900     7,894     7,914        20     2,634     8,772  

Nov-23     7,900     7,918     7,850     7,868     7,846     7,882        36        18       175  

Dec-23     7,892     7,892     7,824     7,830     7,850     7,856         6         4        69  

Jan-24     7,850     7,880     7,810     7,844     7,836     7,850        14        59        87  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 415,935 lots, or 36.44 billion yuan  

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open  

                                                  Settle                                Interest  

Mar-23     9,076     9,114     9,012     9,074     9,070     9,068        -2     9,437    25,932  

May-23     8,774     8,804     8,706     8,762     8,772     8,764        -8   370,776   425,503  

Jul-23     8,714     8,744     8,652     8,706     8,714     8,706        -8     7,298    69,658  

Aug-23     8,690     8,718     8,626     8,678     8,694     8,680       -14     3,273    42,811  

Sep-23     8,638     8,664     8,566     8,624     8,640     8,626       -14    19,856    69,409  

Nov-23     8,620     8,632     8,542     8,592     8,614     8,592       -22     3,879    31,659  

Dec-23     8,618     8,632     8,544     8,598     8,616     8,598       -18     1,324     9,908  

Jan-24     8,586     8,608     8,530     8,572     8,590     8,572       -18        92       320   

Notes:  

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;  

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;  

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;  

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.  

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322