About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday but still remains inside the trading range created over the last couple of months Futures have been stuck in the same trading range since the beginning of November but are showing bad demand fundamentals as China and the rest of Southeast Asia are on holiday for the Lunar New Year. Overall, the demand for US Cotton has not been strong. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months were hurt by news of Covid outbreaks in China. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.53 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,900 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 85.60, 83.20, and 82.00 March, with resistance of 89.00, 89.90 and 92.10 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower yesterday. Price action has been weak since a late week rally last week and trends could start to turn down in the short term. DJ News highlighted the tough environment in Florida for production this year and demand more generally in recent years in an article published on Wednesday. Trends are mixed as the market seems to be falling back into a trading range after making a spike high after the reports were released. Demand should start to improve now with the holidays now over. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 201.00, 197.00, and 194.00 March, with resistance at 209.00, 214.00, and 217.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London also closed high yesterday. The activity in London was diminished as Vietnam and much of Southeast Asia is closed for the Tet holiday or Lunar New Year. It seemed to rally mostly in sympathy with New York. Brazil offers have increased but offers from Vietnam are less now as the Tet holiday gets under way. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now and as offers stayed strong from Brazil and increasingly from Vietnam. Ideas are that the buy side needs Coffee now. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affected the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee either way when the next harvest comes in a few months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.858 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 159.08 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 162.00 and 172.00 March. Support is at 155.00, 152.00, and 150.00 March, and resistance is at 163.00, 166.00 and 169.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1950 and 2040 March. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1880 March, and resistance is at 1950, 1970, and 2020 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday. Ideas are that mills in Brazil will be encouraged to produce more Sugar than Ethanol due to policy changes proposed by the Lula administration. Ethanol profit margins could be squeezed by the moves. The harvest has been delayed in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also delayed. There is talk that production in India will be reduced this year after some bad weather and reduced yields reported in Maharashtra. Ideas are that India will produce about 34.3 million tons of Sugar this year, about 4% less than the previous outlook. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. World Sugar is expected to be in a big surplus production next year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1890 March and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2050 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 541.00, 537.00, and 535.00 March and resistance is at 555.00, 559.00, and 562.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in range trading on news that the rainy season has started in West Africa. Nigeria reported very good rains over the weekend. Weaker demand shown by the grind data that got released last week. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production. The North American grind was 8.1% lower. The European grind was 1.7% lower and the Asian grind was 0.25 lower. There are still reports of dry weather in West Africa that could hurt production potential. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are large at ports. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.951 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2510 March, with resistance at 2630, 2670, and 2700 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1940, 1910, and 1900 March. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1930 March, with resistance at 2030, 2050, and 2080 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322