About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday and all three markets climbed back inside the recent trading range to negate the new down move. Big Russian production goes against the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea due to insurance requirements, but so far the lack of insurance has not increased demand for US Wheat as the Russian Wheat is still moving. There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures. The weekly export sales report last week did show improved sales.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers in southern sections. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 704, 691, and 689 March, Support is at 713, 702, and 696 March, with resistance at 740, 760, and 766 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 811, 802, and 792 March, with resistance at 840, 850, and 861 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 890, 885, and 876 March, and resistance is at 907, 918, and 923 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed to higher yesterday, with March trading a little lower most of the session. Demand should be a problem for bullish traders moving forward and he export sales report released on Friday morning showed negative net sales. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although some Rice moved in Texas at what were called very good prices. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1854 and 1906 March. Support is at 1801, 1785, and 1776 March and resistance is at 1833, 1840, and 1852 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 25
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.49 11.00 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.15 11.40 0.00
Brokens 10.17 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 54.28/14.78 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.31/10.41 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday with a change in the weather in South America the main fundamental news for traders. The export demand was great last week, but demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. Southern Brazil and Argentina got some significant and very welcome rains over the weekend with totals to 1.5 inches. More is in the forecast for later this week. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time. China is celebrating the Lunar New Year so the government and most business are closed this week.
Overnight News: Undonown destinations bought 100,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 656, 642, and 636 March. Support is at 669, 666, and 661 March, and resistance is at 678, 689, and 693 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 351, and 346 March, and resistance is at 375, 377, and 380 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were all mixed to a little lower yesterday as Argentina and southern Brazil weather changed to a much wetter pattern over the weekend. The market tried to rally early in the day session, but failed when new selling from South America was noted. More precipitation is expected later this week. Price trends are down for Soybeans and Soybean Meal as the harvest in Brazil starts to expand in central and northern areas. Current forecasts suggest that the showers currently in the forecast for early this week will make a real dent in the drought. Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now although most estimates remain near 153 million tons. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are now closer to 40 million tons than original projections near 50 million. China has been closed so far this week for the Lunar New Year and will not open again until next week. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News: Unknown destinatios bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1469 and 1428 March. Support is at 1474, 1468, and 1460 March, and resistance is at 1502, 1513, and 1523 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 450.00 and 429.00 March. Support is at 457.00, 453.00, and 444.00 March, and resistance is at 469.00, 474.00, and 481.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6050, 5940, and 5850 March, with resistance at 6220, 6360, and 6470 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on weaker competing oils markets and demand fears over biofuels use. Germany and the rest of Europe are thinking of moving away from plant based fuels, and China demand has yet to become whole. India demand has also been lacking. Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was lower again yesterday on selling coming from speculators who saw the price trends turn down on the daily charts late last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 791.00 March. Support is at 791.00, 784.00, and 778.00 March, with resistance at 810.00, 813.00, and 828.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3750, and 3730 April, with resistance at 4000, 4040, and 4130 April.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Fell 32.89% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Yifan Wang
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for Jan. 1-25 are estimated to have fallen 32.89% from the previous month to 823,376 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Jan. 1-25 Dec. 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 299,237 310,872
RBD Palm Oil 119,136 90,458
RBD Palm Stearin 46,665 91,668
Crude Palm Oil 196,250 418,421
Total* 823,376 1,226,966
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January
88 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
130 Jan

February
88 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
130 Mar

March
89 Mar
165 Mar
125 Mar
110 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 799.45 -7.25 Mar 2023 dn 6.20
Track Thunder Bay 826.70 30.00 Mar 2023 dn 10.00
Track Vancouver 854.70 58.00 Mar 2023 dn 10.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Janauary 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 930.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
March 930.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 930.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 930.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 940.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
March 940.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 940.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 940.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 900.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3870.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 235.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.259)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322