Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 23
Washington, DC Mon Jan 23, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 19, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/19/2023 01/12/2023 01/20/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 299 0 0 2,154 10,010
CORN 727,643 779,788 1,186,575 11,509,781 16,514,529
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 224
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 72,574 2,708 77,239 493,628 2,149,910
SOYBEANS 1,805,744 2,190,371 1,383,251 34,100,498 35,031,997
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,160 432
WHEAT 334,217 325,643 417,638 12,761,882 13,239,200
Total 2,940,477 3,298,510 3,064,703 58,876,789 66,946,702
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower yesterday and trends turned down in all three markets. Big Russian production goes against the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea due to insurance requirements, but so far the lack of insurance has not increased demand for US Wheat as the Russian Wheat is still moving. There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures. The weekly export sales report issued Friday morning did show improved sales.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers in southern sections. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolatecd showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 704, 691, and 689 March, Support is at 713, 702, and 696 March, with resistance at 740, 760, and 766 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 780, 736, and 704 March. Support is at 8211, 8202, and 792 March, with resistance at 861, 866, and 876 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 887, 863, and 857 March. Support is at 885, 876, and 882 March, and resistance is at 899, 907, and 918 March.
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday. Demand should be a problem for bullish traders moving forward and he export sales report released on Friday morning showed negative net sales. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although some Rice moved in Texas at what were called very good prices. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1854 and 1906 March. Support is at 1801, 1785, and 1776 March and resistance is at 1832, 1840, and 1852 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed a little higher yesterday with a change in the weather in South America the main fundamental news for traders. The export demand was great last week even though demand remains well behind the pace to make USDA objectives. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. Southern Brazil and Argentina got some significant and very welcome rains over the weekend with titals to 1.5 inches. More is in the forecast for later this week. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 656, 642, and 636 March. Support is at 659, 649, and 647 March, and resistance is at 669, 678, and 689 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 351, and 346 March, and resistance is at 375, 377, and 380 March.
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were all lower yesterday as Argentina and southern Brazil weather changed to a much wetter pattern over the weekend. More precipitation is expected later this week. Price trends are down for Soybeans and Soybean Meal as the harvest in Brazil starts to expand in central and northern areas. Current forecasts suggest that the showers currently in the forecast for early this week will make a real dent in the drought. Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now although most estimates remain near 153 million tons. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are now closer to 40 million tons than original projections near 50 million. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1469 and 1428 March. Support is at 1474, 1468, and 1460 March, and resistance is at 1502, 1513, and 1523 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 450.00 and 429.00 March. Support is at 453.00, 444.00, and 435.00 March, and resistance is at 467.00, 469.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6150, 6120, and 6050 March, with resistance at 6360, 6470, and 6520 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today for the Lunar New Year. Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was lower yesterday on selling coming from speculators who saw the price trends turn down on the daily charts late last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 791.00 March. Support is at 800.00, 791.00, and 784.00 March, with resistance at 813.00, 828.00, and 833.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3750, and 3730 April, with resistance at 4000, 4040, and 4130 April.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 805.65 -7.25 Mar 2023 dn 13.80
Track Thunder Bay 836.70 30.00 Mar 2023 dn 6.20
Track Vancouver 864.70 58.00 Mar 2023 dn 6.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
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