About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was moderately higher last week and still remains inside the trading range created over the last couple of months. The USDA reports were considered bearish as USDA increased domestic production estimates and cut US and world demand to increase ending stocks for both. Ideas of weak demand continue. Futures have been stuck in the same trading range since the beginning of November but are showing bad demand fundamentals. Overall, the demand for US Cotton has not been strong. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months were hurt by news of Covid outbreaks in China. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.20 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,900 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.20, 82.00, and 81.70 March, with resistance of 88.00, 89.00 and 89.90 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 19
As of Jan 13. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 23 27,004 30,316 -3,312 16,854 16,650 204
May 23 12,807 11,084 1,723 4,498 3,768 730
Jul 23 18,213 17,261 952 2,216 2,092 124
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 9,661 9,496 165 18,202 18,035 167
Mar 24 757 629 128 1,661 1,573 88
May 24 203 291 -88 0 0 0
Jul 24 528 528 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 880 880 0 5,048 4,572 476
Mar 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 70,053 70,485 -432 48,699 46,910 1,789
Open Open Change
Int Int
Mar 23 88,115 93,854 -5,739
May 23 44,353 38,422 5,931
Jul 23 36,846 33,393 3,453
Oct 23 29 29 0
Dec 23 26,235 25,579 656
Mar 24 4,653 4,645 8
May 24 779 857 -78
Jul 24 442 436 6
Dec 24 1,400 1,418 -18
Mar 25 15 19 -4
May 25 2 2 0
Jul 25 0 0 0
May 26 0 0 0
Total 202,869 198,654 4,215

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 260,922
: Positions :
: 22,277 43,616 72,452 74,377 118,666 77,706 14,040 246,812 248,774: 14,110 12,148
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: -497) :
: -1,984 7,721 -1,507 736 -7,656 3,070 1,139 316 -303: -813 -194
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 16.7 27.8 28.5 45.5 29.8 5.4 94.6 95.3: 5.4 4.7
: Total Traders: 289 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 73 103 61 63 48 24 242 222:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower again yesterday despite a late week rally last week based on smaller Florida production estimates from USDA. Price action has been weak since then and trends could start to turn down in the short term. DJ News highlighted the tough environment in Florida for production this year and demand more generally in recent years in an article published on Wednesday. Trends are mixed as the market seems to be falling back into a trading range after making a spike high after the reports were released. Demand should start to improve now with the holidays now over. USDA estimated Florida Oranges production at just 18 million boxes, from 20 million in its previous estimate. US production was estimated at 2.7 million tons, down 22% from last month. The supply situation in the US and in the world market looks very tight. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICQE said that 10 contracts were delivered against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 201.00, 197.00, and 194.00 March, with resistance at 209.00, 214.00, and 217.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,851 :
: Positions :
: 979 9,207 1,760 137 89 6,039 0 93 823 856 747 :
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 :
: 138 228 -47 26 10 362 0 -5 54 50 -14 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 71.6 13.7 1.1 0.7 47.0 0.0 0.7 6.4 6.7 5.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 68 :
: 10 14 6 . . 25 0 . 7 9 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both higher on Friday and for the week last week, with London closing at new highs for the move. Brazil offers have increased but offers from Vietnam are less now as the Tet holiday gets under way. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now and as offers stayed strong from Brazil and increasingly from Vietnam. Ideas are that the buy side needs Coffee now. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affected the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee either way when the next harvest comes in a few months. Brazil shipped 35.57 million bags of Coffee in 2922, down about 2.6% from 2021. Conab estimated Brazil production at 54.i9 million bags, with Arabica production estimated at 37.4 million gas and Robusta production estimated at 17/5 million bags.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.851 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 156.48 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 150.00, 142.00, and 140.00 March, and resistance is at 159.00, 163.00 and 166.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1950 and 2040 March. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1880 March, and resistance is at 1950, 1970, and 2020 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 279,880
: Positions :
: 19,005 62,945 80,796 104,821 106,849 62,487 19,838 267,109 270,428: 12,772 9,452
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 7,508) :
: -3,665 9,205 -5,479 10,128 2,872 7,201 716 8,184 7,313: -675 195
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.8 22.5 28.9 37.5 38.2 22.3 7.1 95.4 96.6: 4.6 3.4
: Total Traders: 398 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 97 123 120 101 48 27 340 297:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/17/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
114,259 74,311 66,213 1,071 1,797 2,717
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 65.0% 57.9% 0.9% 1.6% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
134 45 34 5 8 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,565 21,371 4,350 5,313 1,465 10,935
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.4% 18.7% 3.8% 4.6% 1.3% 9.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 25 15 12 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,997 5,411
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 4.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week, but closed well off the highs of the week on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Ideas are that mills in Brazil will be encouraged to produce more Sugar than Ethanol due to policy changes proposed by the Lula administration. Ethanol profit margins could be squeezed by the moves. The harvest has been delayed in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also delayed. There is talk that production in India will be reduced this year after some bad weather and reduced yields reported in Maharashtra. Ideas are that India will produce about 34.3 million tons of Sugar this year, about 4% less than the previous outlook. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. World Sugar is expected to be in a big surplus production next year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1890 March and resistance is at 2030, 2050, and 2120 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 547.00, 535.00, and 527.00 March and resistance is at 555.00, 559.00, and 562.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,042,339
: Positions :
: 182,401 63,058 214,954 307,265 648,243 244,285 68,593 948,904 994,847: 93,435 47,492
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: -12,649) :
: 4,054 -208 -1,121 -9,179 -9,979 -7,206 -716 -13,452 -12,025: 803 -624
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.5 6.0 20.6 29.5 62.2 23.4 6.6 91.0 95.4: 9.0 4.6
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 39 77 70 79 46 23 233 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/17/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
89,639 34,597 71,660 6,425 4,465 2,242
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 38.6% 79.9% 7.2% 5.0% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
124 39 42 8 3 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,360 1,059 3,100 2,766 890 3,732
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
33.9% 1.2% 3.5% 3.1% 1.0% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 5 13 9 6 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,417 2,491
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 2.8%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on what appeared to be selling from producers and speculators. Weaker demand shown by the grind data that got released last week. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production. Asian Cocoa grindings were 230,806 tons in the fourth quarter of last year, from 231,309 tons in 2021. Calendar year 2022 Cocoa grindings were 904,094 tons, up 3.1% from 2021. The North American grind was 8.1% lower. There are still reports of dry weather in West Africa that could hurt production potential. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are large at ports. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.905 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2540, 2470, and 2460 March. Support is at 2540, 2520, and 2490 March, with resistance at 2630, 2670, and 2700 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1940, 1910, and 1900 March. Support is at 1980, 1960, and 1930 March, with resistance at 2030, 2050, and 2080 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 379,299
: Positions :
: 55,370 57,436 101,688 143,764 173,607 65,146 36,661 365,968 369,391: 13,331 9,908
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 17,634) :
: -295 2,467 4,853 8,545 8,293 5,126 2,043 18,229 17,656: -595 -22
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.6 15.1 26.8 37.9 45.8 17.2 9.7 96.5 97.4: 3.5 2.6
: Total Traders: 240 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 66 77 48 41 33 18 206 162:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/17/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
348,852 126,661 248,500 27,640 16,293 26,004
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.3% 71.2% 7.9% 4.7% 7.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
169 47 45 20 6 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
95,062 7,027 12,312 20,334 780 35,690
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
27.2% 2.0% 3.5% 5.8% 0.2% 10.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 10 23 18 9 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,149 2,246
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322