About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Grains Lower After Rainfall Arrives to Argentina — Market Talk
0938 ET – Grain futures on the CBOT are lower to start the week, with traders selling in the pre-market session in reaction to rainfall arriving in otherwise parched South American growing areas over the weekend. Scattered showers are expected across Argentinian growing areas through most of the week, according to a forecast from DTN, while Brazil also receives more rain. In trading, most-active corn futures are down 0.9%, soybeans are down 1.1%, and wheat is down 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed last week, with Chicago slightly lower in sympathy with weakness in world Wheat markets and Kansas City and Minneapolis a little higher. The daily charts show all three markets are in a trading range and could be forming a short term bottom. Big Russian production goes against the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea due to insurance requirements, but so far the lack of insurance has not increased demand for US Wheat. There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures. The weekly export sales report issued Friday morning did show improved sales.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 728, 721, and 714 March, with resistance at 760, 766, and 772 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 824, 822, and 803 March, with resistance at 861, 866, and 876 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 897, 888, and 882 March, and resistance is at 923, 938, and 942 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 405,665
: Positions :
: 36,907 111,177 114,393 73,883 94,574 144,186 47,465 369,370 367,608: 36,296 38,058
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 10,818) :
: 318 1,129 8,240 3,835 1,779 -791 721 11,603 11,869: -784 -1,051
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 27.4 28.2 18.2 23.3 35.5 11.7 91.1 90.6: 8.9 9.4
: Total Traders: 355 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 98 115 94 101 47 31 287 288:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 184,108
: Positions :
: 18,722 39,116 41,747 43,598 66,542 59,736 13,856 163,802 161,261: 20,306 22,847
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 7,177) :
: 4,552 995 2,351 673 1,571 287 926 7,862 5,843: -685 1,334
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.2 21.2 22.7 23.7 36.1 32.4 7.5 89.0 87.6: 11.0 12.4
: Total Traders: 199 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 41 57 56 64 35 18 160 156:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 58,230 :
: Positions :
: 34,912 35,111 2,472 898 0 4,206 6,982 1,740 3,020 737 2,038 :
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 :
: -731 262 -2 -2 -48 700 772 -123 259 -277 396 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.0 60.3 4.2 1.5 0.0 7.2 12.0 3.0 5.2 1.3 3.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 86 :
: 45 34 . . 0 7 11 7 7 5 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher last week and closed at new highs for the move on the daily and weekly charts. USDA estimated US production at 160.4 million cwt this month, from 164.3 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 32.1 million cwt, from 38.1 million last month. Long Grain production was estimated at `18.2 million cwt, from 131.7 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 21.8 million cwt, from 27.3 million last month. Demand should be a problem for bullish traders moving forward and he export sales report released on Friday morning showed negative net sales. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now although some Rice moved in Texas at what were called very good prices. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1854 and 1906 March. Support is at 1801, 1785, and 1776 March and resistance is at 1822, 1833, and 1840 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 8,772 :
: Positions :
: 4,279 4,662 0 0 0 1,283 1,286 66 717 964 798 :
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 :
: 80 14 0 0 0 159 56 -53 -85 75 58 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.8 53.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.6 14.7 0.8 8.2 11.0 9.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 14 14 0 0 0 9 5 . 7 10 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little higher last week in choppy trading. Demand for US Corn remains muted even as forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen through the weekend. However, the export demand was great last week. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. These areas could get some significant and very welcome rains early next week. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 669, 664, and 659 March, and resistance is at 678, 689, and 693 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 362, 351, and 346 March, and resistance is at 375, 377, and 380 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,552,011
: Positions :
: 202,811 88,946 348,269 412,622 821,145 427,726 75,408 1,391,428 1,333,769: 160,583 218,242
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 70,078) :
: 40,597 4,187 13,449 9,574 39,315 1,695 5,195 65,314 62,144: 4,764 7,934
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 5.7 22.4 26.6 52.9 27.6 4.9 89.7 85.9: 10.3 14.1
: Total Traders: 741 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 111 168 316 390 56 27 590 621:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,693 :
: Positions :
: 905 946 0 0 0 0 1,525 0 764 0 75 :
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 :
: 28 19 0 -64 0 0 -134 0 -29 0 -1 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.5 25.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3 0.0 20.7 0.0 2.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 22 :
: 8 5 0 0 0 0 7 0 5 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were all lower Friday and for the week as the dry weather in Argentina and southern Brazil continues but could change to a much wetter pattern early this week. Price trends are starting to turn down for Soybeans and Soybean Meal as the harvest in Brazil starts to expand in central and northern areas. Current forecasts suggest that the showers currently in the forecast for early this week will make a real dent in the drought. Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are now closer to 40 million tons than original projections near 50 million. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 192,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1469 and 1428 March. Support is at 1500, 1487, and 1474 March, and resistance is at 1548, 1552, and 1564 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 450.00 and 429.00 March. Support is at 464.00, 457.00, and 453.00 March, and resistance is at 475.00, 481.00, and 487.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6190, 6150, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6470, 6520, and 6670 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 771,901
: Positions :
: 168,212 37,446 160,722 225,794 438,006 166,852 43,808 721,579 679,982: 50,322 91,919
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 44,133) :
: 30,172 -4,231 13,273 -3,348 30,595 2,249 985 42,346 40,622: 1,787 3,510
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.8 4.9 20.8 29.3 56.7 21.6 5.7 93.5 88.1: 6.5 11.9
: Total Traders: 568 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 136 117 159 168 230 57 25 443 458:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 412,731
: Positions :
: 52,568 25,004 84,491 128,953 262,351 109,580 15,913 375,592 387,758: 37,139 24,972
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,066) :
: -357 320 -1,384 5,774 5,521 -1,975 -80 2,058 4,377: 2,008 -311
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 6.1 20.5 31.2 63.6 26.5 3.9 91.0 93.9: 9.0 6.1
: Total Traders: 275 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 41 77 85 98 41 23 222 218:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 463,876
: Positions :
: 130,072 13,293 84,974 70,671 321,219 124,778 10,856 410,494 430,341: 53,382 33,535
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 (Change in open interest: 9,405) :
: 8,179 -592 5,403 23 5,068 -4,072 -3,294 9,533 6,584: -128 2,821
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.0 2.9 18.3 15.2 69.2 26.9 2.3 88.5 92.8: 11.5 7.2
: Total Traders: 303 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 37 72 89 101 44 16 256 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher last week as demand ideas remain uncertain and as the production uncertainty continues. The market was closed today for the Lunar New Year. Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was lower last week with late seek selling coming from speculators who saw the price trends turn down on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 811.00 and 791.00 March. Support is at 810.00, 800.00, and 791.00 March, with resistance at 828.00, 833.00, and 837.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3750, and 3730 April, with resistance at 4000, 4040, and 4130 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 44,722 :
: Positions :
: 35,750 25,501 1,690 8,116 135 80 0 0 4,702 8,615 2,355 :
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 :
: 819 760 0 260 0 0 0 0 186 -35 1,255 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.9 57.0 3.8 18.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.5 19.3 5.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 8 10 . 5 . . 0 0 6 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 17, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 216,746 :
: Positions :
: 172,174 158,568 5,453 2,851 416 15,245 29,038 10,053 5,055 6,510 7,072 :
: Changes from: January 10, 2023 :
: 323 -10,803 253 92 -217 -4,377 7,325 1,083 1,454 497 -9 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.4 73.2 2.5 1.3 0.2 7.0 13.4 4.6 2.3 3.0 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 260 :
: 53 63 . 5 . 27 47 18 50 48 38 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January
88 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
130 Jan

February
88 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
130 Mar

March
89 Mar
165 Mar
125 Mar
110 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 20
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Jan. 20, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 819.45 -7.25 Mar 23 dn 10.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 842.90 30.00 Mar 23 dn 13.80
Basis: Vancouver 870.90 58.00 Mar 23 dn 13.80
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322