About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 20
For the week ended Jan 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 473.1 35.0 15533.8 16528.1 4369.2 197.5
hrw 106.8 21.0 4255.0 6500.7 984.6 90.3
srw 34.0 0.0 2424.4 2488.8 643.7 41.6
hrs 181.0 0.0 4704.0 4427.6 1389.7 49.8
white 152.9 14.0 3862.2 2943.9 1231.5 14.3
durum -1.5 0.0 288.1 167.3 119.7 1.5
corn 1132.1 87.0 23128.3 42545.8 12028.6 1248.4
soybeans 986.2 0.0 45389.7 43108.4 13661.4 397.0
soymeal 362.5 0.0 6565.6 6545.3 3254.4 18.3
soyoil 0.7 0.0 38.3 468.5 18.3 0.6
upland cotton 209.4 26.9 9068.4 11267.3 4867.3 1230.1
pima cotton 2.5 0.0 125.7 383.0 58.4 1.1
sorghum 189.0 0.0 550.0 5806.3 328.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.6 30.5 4.9 0.0
rice -5.6 0.0 1096.7 1682.5 446.9 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in sympathy with weakness in world Wheat markets and in Soybeans futures. Big Russian production goes against the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea due to insurance requirements, but so far the lack of insurance has not increased demand for US Wheat. There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 729, 721, and 714 March, with resistance at 760, 766, and 772 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 828, 823, and 803 March, with resistance at 861, 866, and 876 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 897, 888, and 882 March, and resistance is at 923, 938, and 942 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. USDA estimated US production at 160.4 million cwt this month, from 164.3 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 32.1 million cwt, from 38.1 million last month. Long Grain production was estimated at `18.2 million cwt, from 131.7 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 21.8 million cwt, from 27.3 million last month. Demand should be a problem for bullish traders moving forward. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1776, 1760, and 1750 March and resistance is at 1805, 1822, and 1832 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 20
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.03 10.71 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.70 11.10 0.00
Brokens 9.90 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 54.28/14.78 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.31/10.41 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday on ideas of weak demand and in sympathy with weakness in Soybeans. Demand for US Corn remains muted even as forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen through the weekend. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. These areas could get some significant and very welcome rains early next week. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 669, 664, and 659 March, and resistance is at 689, 693, and 698 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 391 March. Support is at 362, 351, and 346 March, and resistance is at 375, 377, and 380 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were all lower yesterday as the dry weather in Argentina and southern Brazil continues but could change to a much wetter pattern next week. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, Current forecasts suggest that the showers currently in the forecast for early next week will make a real dent in the drought. Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are now closer to 40 million tons than original projections near 50 million. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 220,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1511, 1500, and 1487 March, and resistance is at 1548, 1552, and 1564 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 469.00, 466.00, and 457.00 March, and resistance is at 481.00, 487.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6190, 6150, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6470, 6520, and 6670 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week as demand ideas remain uncertain and as the production uncertainty continues. Futures rallied a bit yesterday but made new lows for the move today. Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was lower yesterday in sympathy with the weakness in Soybeans and Soybean Oil. {rice trends could be turning down on the daily charts with the low range close of yesterday. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 822.00, 811.00, and 791.00 March. Support is at 810.00, 800.00, and 791.00 March, with resistance at 837.00, 843.00, and 849.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3740 and 3500 April. Support is at 3750, 3730, and 3720 April, with resistance at 3000, 4000, and 4040 April.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Fell 29.1% on Month, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for Jan. 1-20 are estimated to have fallen 29.1% from the previous month to 654,888 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said Friday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-20 December 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 219,664 188,653
RBD Palm Oil 83,106 56,370
RBD Palm Stearin 27,715 68,590
Crude Palm Oil 121,400 300,940
Total* 654,888 923,642
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Fell 38.54% on Month to 566,561 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ronnie Harui
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for Jan. 1-20 are estimated to have fallen 38.54% from the previous month to 566,561 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Jan. 1-20 Dec. 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 206,492 243,397
RBD Palm Oil 71,566 54,778
RBD Palm Stearin 41,565 72,968
Crude Palm Oil 99,350 327,941
Total* 566,561 921,811
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January
92 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
114 Jan

February
92 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
1314 Mar

March
91 Mar
165 Mar
125 Mar
109 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 19
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Jan. 19, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 829.45 -7.25 Mar 23 dn 5.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 856.70 30.00 Mar 23 dn 10.00
Basis: Vancouver 884.70 58.00 Mar 23 dn 10.00
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Janauary 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 947.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
March 947.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 947.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 947.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 957.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
March 957.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 957.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 957.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 920.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 705.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3950.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 238.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.288)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 80,522 lots, or 4.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,480 5,510 5,467 5,498 5,476 5,490 14 6,756 19,057
May-23 5,498 5,520 5,477 5,506 5,478 5,501 23 61,729 124,506
Jul-23 5,460 5,477 5,442 5,457 5,449 5,462 13 8,550 31,904
Sep-23 5,450 5,468 5,439 5,443 5,450 5,456 6 1,350 8,228
Nov-23 5,458 5,473 5,447 5,458 5,450 5,462 12 2,137 14,044
Jan-24 – – – 5,437 5,437 5,437 0 0 22
Corn
Turnover: 459,655 lots, or 1.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,874 2,876 2,848 2,859 2,883 2,861 -22 289,391 638,249
May-23 2,861 2,867 2,844 2,854 2,871 2,854 -17 89,382 385,376
Jul-23 2,839 2,843 2,821 2,831 2,849 2,832 -17 41,843 340,896
Sep-23 2,826 2,828 2,808 2,815 2,831 2,818 -13 10,509 58,587
Nov-23 2,795 2,795 2,763 2,765 2,799 2,774 -25 27,932 98,075
Jan-24 2,763 2,806 2,750 2,751 2,775 2,760 -15 598 1,035
Soymeal
Turnover: 716,196 lots, or 27.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 4,279 4,282 4,230 4,244 4,281 4,250 -31 72,015 237,208
May-23 3,889 3,889 3,838 3,841 3,897 3,859 -38 488,082 1,259,265
Jul-23 3,861 3,861 3,800 3,806 3,861 3,826 -35 25,975 136,865
Aug-23 3,902 3,902 3,845 3,853 3,902 3,866 -36 29,851 82,623
Sep-23 3,845 3,860 3,810 3,814 3,865 3,830 -35 58,376 196,333
Nov-23 3,803 3,803 3,758 3,762 3,814 3,777 -37 28,393 35,508
Dec-23 3,776 3,777 3,733 3,737 3,792 3,754 -38 6,638 17,215
Jan-24 3,748 3,748 3,691 3,691 3,757 3,713 -44 6,866 6,836
Palm Oil
Turnover: 505,933 lots, or 39.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-23 7,688 7,780 7,638 7,742 7,698 7,694 -4 2,006 2,407
Mar-23 7,776 7,852 7,750 7,820 7,776 7,802 26 19,616 74,130
Apr-23 7,816 7,906 7,810 7,872 7,816 7,858 42 5,907 64,314
May-23 7,842 7,922 7,818 7,888 7,844 7,868 24 458,558 503,287
Jun-23 7,876 7,926 7,836 7,888 7,858 7,878 20 4,780 39,032
Jul-23 7,860 7,934 7,846 7,906 7,860 7,892 32 4,818 24,849
Aug-23 7,872 7,922 7,836 7,900 7,858 7,886 28 2,343 14,297
Sep-23 7,870 7,924 7,830 7,910 7,858 7,884 26 7,844 19,995
Oct-23 7,850 7,850 7,850 7,850 7,850 7,850 0 1 37
Nov-23 7,838 7,850 7,838 7,850 7,828 7,844 16 2 173
Dec-23 7,864 7,864 7,816 7,862 7,800 7,852 52 10 147
Jan-24 7,816 7,864 7,788 7,836 7,824 7,836 12 48 41
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 319,925 lots, or 28.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 9,038 9,144 9,038 9,128 9,038 9,096 58 11,423 58,544
May-23 8,756 8,812 8,724 8,788 8,736 8,778 42 281,968 403,675
Jul-23 8,700 8,734 8,660 8,708 8,668 8,704 36 3,546 55,846
Aug-23 8,672 8,702 8,626 8,684 8,644 8,672 28 2,584 28,386
Sep-23 8,600 8,648 8,568 8,632 8,600 8,616 16 10,776 31,043
Nov-23 8,540 8,598 8,540 8,574 8,544 8,574 30 7,573 15,034
Dec-23 8,554 8,596 8,540 8,582 8,548 8,570 22 1,963 4,686
Jan-24 8,538 8,560 8,510 8,560 8,514 8,534 20 92 107
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322