About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as follow through buying dried up during the day session in response to the USDA reports. USDA estimated Winter Wheat planted area at 37 million acres, from 33.3 million last year. However, current ending stocks were estimated at 567 million bushels, from 571 million last month. Big Russian production goes against the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea due to insurance requirements, but so far the lack of insurance has not increased demand for US Wheat. There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 742, 729, and 721 March, with resistance at 760, 766, and 772 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 828, 823, and 803 March, with resistance at 861, 866, and 876 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 897, 888, and 882 March, and resistance is at 923, 938, and 942 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday after trading lower early in the day in consolidation trading. USDA estimated US production at 160.4 million cwt this month, from 164.3 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 32.1 million cwt, from 38.1 million last month. Long Grain production was estimated at `18.2 million cwt, from 131.7 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 21.8 million cwt, from 27.3 million last month. Demand should be a problem for bullish traders moving forward. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1776, 1760, and 1750 March and resistance is at 1805, 1822, and 1832 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday as buying attributed to the USDA reports that were considered bullish for prices started to dry up. USDA cut production to just 13,730 billion bushels, from 13.930 billion last month. Harvested acreage was cut to account for the loss. Ending stocks were cut to 1.242 billion bushels for the US and 296.4 million tons for the world. Demand for US Corn remains muted even as forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 195,000 tons of US Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with no objectives. Support is at 677, 672, and 669 March, and resistance is at 689, 693, and 698 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 391 March. Support is at 362, 351, and 346 March, and resistance is at 377, 380, and 386 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were all lower yesterday as buying caused by the USDA reports and the dry weather in Argentina and southern Brazil continue. The products also closed higher. USDA showed production at 4.276 billion bushels, from 4.346 billion last year. US ending stocks were less than expected at 210 million bushels, from 220 million last month. Farmers are starting to sell Soybeans in the US. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, Current forecasts suggest that the showers currently in the forecast for late this week or this weekend will not able to make a real dent in the drought. Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are now closer to 40 million tons than original projections near 50 million. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1511, 1500, and 1487 March, and resistance is at 1548, 1552, and 1564 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 469.00, 466.00, and 457.00 March, and resistance is at 487.00, 490.00, and 4967.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6340, 6190, and 6150 March, with resistance at 6470, 6520, and 6670 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week as demand ideas remain uncertain and as the production uncertainty continues. Futures rallied a bit yesterday but made new lows for the move today. Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was a little lower yesterday in sympathy with the weakness in Soybeans and Soybean Oil. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 822.00 March. Support is at 831.00, 810.00, and 800.00 March, with resistance at 849.00, 852.00, and 8763.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3740 and 3500 April. Support is at 3790, 3760, and 3730 April, with resistance at 3000, 4000, and 4040 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January
92 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
114 Jan

February
92 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
1314 Mar

March
91 Mar
165 Mar
125 Mar
109 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 17
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Jan. 17, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 833.65 -7.25 Mar 23 up 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 871.90 30.00 Mar 23 up 1.00
Basis: Vancouver 899.90 58.00 Mar 23 up 3.00
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Janauary 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 945.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
March 945.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 945.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 945.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 955.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
March 955.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 955.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 955.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 920.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 705.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3950.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 240.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.337)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 164,105 lots, or 8.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,479 5,507 5,429 5,474 5,479 5,476 -3 17,136 19,257
May-23 5,460 5,527 5,433 5,488 5,467 5,478 11 123,972 124,672
Jul-23 5,447 5,487 5,405 5,447 5,446 5,449 3 15,026 30,702
Sep-23 5,431 5,480 5,408 5,448 5,442 5,450 8 3,233 8,551
Nov-23 5,449 5,483 5,414 5,455 5,439 5,450 11 4,725 13,946
Jan-24 5,425 5,457 5,425 5,435 5,420 5,437 17 13 22
Corn
Turnover: 454,241 lots, or 13.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,895 2,900 2,861 2,874 2,889 2,883 -6 300,433 698,935
May-23 2,886 2,887 2,857 2,864 2,877 2,871 -6 69,063 390,489
Jul-23 2,861 2,864 2,835 2,839 2,853 2,849 -4 50,922 336,163
Sep-23 2,842 2,845 2,820 2,824 2,837 2,831 -6 6,516 55,369
Nov-23 2,807 2,810 2,786 2,789 2,800 2,799 -1 26,780 93,189
Jan-24 2,789 2,789 2,767 2,772 2,787 2,775 -12 527 679
Soymeal
Turnover: 885,092 lots, or 34.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 4,330 4,330 4,254 4,279 4,316 4,281 -35 95,912 242,849
May-23 3,940 3,940 3,875 3,886 3,925 3,897 -28 620,465 1,291,838
Jul-23 3,912 3,912 3,838 3,848 3,884 3,861 -23 39,002 134,795
Aug-23 3,938 3,943 3,881 3,897 3,921 3,902 -19 39,521 82,231
Sep-23 3,908 3,910 3,847 3,860 3,896 3,865 -31 52,407 195,263
Nov-23 3,857 3,857 3,798 3,809 3,840 3,814 -26 26,631 32,876
Dec-23 3,805 3,817 3,778 3,785 3,805 3,792 -13 9,092 16,798
Jan-24 3,776 3,791 3,747 3,752 3,769 3,757 -12 2,062 3,609
Palm Oil
Turnover: 850,764 lots, or 66.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-23 7,700 7,760 7,580 7,660 7,700 7,698 -2 7,202 4,134
Mar-23 7,756 7,856 7,682 7,770 7,752 7,776 24 30,400 75,995
Apr-23 7,818 7,916 7,736 7,822 7,806 7,816 10 10,977 63,346
May-23 7,850 7,930 7,746 7,840 7,812 7,844 32 770,645 525,853
Jun-23 7,852 7,934 7,762 7,860 7,830 7,858 28 9,433 38,042
Jul-23 7,862 7,936 7,774 7,860 7,846 7,860 14 7,344 24,195
Aug-23 7,842 7,922 7,764 7,856 7,840 7,858 18 3,772 14,110
Sep-23 7,866 7,924 7,768 7,846 7,824 7,858 34 10,815 19,939
Oct-23 7,846 7,870 7,836 7,836 7,748 7,850 102 3 38
Nov-23 7,840 7,932 7,764 7,804 7,812 7,828 16 13 172
Dec-23 7,796 7,898 7,770 7,818 7,796 7,800 4 107 146
Jan-24 7,866 8,030 7,520 7,810 7,766 7,824 58 53 27
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 476,444 lots, or 41.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 9,004 9,094 8,960 9,064 8,968 9,038 70 18,796 60,005
May-23 8,730 8,790 8,670 8,756 8,662 8,736 74 409,922 411,519
Jul-23 8,630 8,720 8,606 8,680 8,614 8,668 54 8,213 55,617
Aug-23 8,638 8,698 8,582 8,660 8,590 8,644 54 6,422 28,062
Sep-23 8,584 8,646 8,536 8,596 8,542 8,600 58 15,162 30,026
Nov-23 8,544 8,594 8,486 8,536 8,532 8,544 12 13,428 13,914
Dec-23 8,552 8,590 8,502 8,540 8,552 8,548 -4 4,408 4,385
Jan-24 8,522 8,558 8,484 8,514 8,498 8,514 16 93 97
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322