About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 17
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue Jan 17, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 12, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/12/2023 01/05/2023 01/13/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,855 10,010
CORN 774,461 401,108 1,237,811 10,775,858 15,327,954
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 224
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 100 6,486 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 2,708 11,332 141,850 421,054 2,072,671
SOYBEANS 2,075,197 1,456,526 1,868,635 32,171,029 33,648,746
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,160 432
WHEAT 320,473 209,544 386,786 12,422,495 12,821,562
Total 3,172,839 2,078,510 3,635,182 55,801,137 63,881,999
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday as follow through buying developed during the day session in response to the USDA reports. USDA estimated Winter Wheat planted area at 37 million acres, from 33.3 million last year. However, current ending stocks were estimated at 567 million bushels, from 571 million last month. World ending stocks levels were increased due to big Russian production and the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea. The quarterly stocks report showed supplies at 1.280 billion bushels now, from 1.377 billion last year. There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. Russia offered to Egypt earlier this week at what were considered very low prices. However, ships still have a hard time getting insurance so the deal might fall through. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and was hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 742, 729, and 721 March, with resistance at 758, 766, and 772 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 875, 895, and 911 March. Support is at 828, 823, and 803 March, with resistance at 861, 876, and 895 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 932, 961, and 969 March. Support is at 897, 888, and 882 March, and resistance is at 938, 942, and 946 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday as some selling hit the market after the reopening for the day session. USDA estimated US production at 160.4 million cwt this month, from 164.3 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 32.1 million cwt, from 38.1 million last month. Long Grain production was estimated at `18.2 million cwt, from 131.7 million last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 21.8 million cwt, from 27.3 million last month. World ending stocks are now estimated at 169.98 million tons, from 168.64 million last month and are now estimated at 61.98 million tons with China out of the equation, from 60.64 million last month. The US Dollar and world petroleum prices were higher yesterday. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1776, 1760, and 1750 March and resistance is at 1805, 1822, and 1832 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher again yesterday in response to the USDA reports that were considered bullish for prices. USDA cut production to just 13,730 billion bushels, from 13.930 billion last year. Harvested acreage was cut to account for the loss. Yields were up 1.0 bushels per acre to 173.3 bu/acre. Ending stocks were cut to 1.242 billion bushels for the US and 296.4 million tons for the world. Quarterly stocks showed that current supplies are 10.809 billion bushels, from 11.641 billion last year. Brazil and Argentina estimates were about unchanged. Demand for US Corn remains muted even as forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time. South American prices are currently close to or above than those in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with no objectives. Support is at 672, 669, and 664 March, and resistance is at 693, 698, and 705 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 391 March. Support is at 362, 351, and 346 March, and resistance is at 377, 380, and 386 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports and as it remains dry in Argentina and southern Brazil. The products also closed higher. USDA showed production at 4.276 billion bushels, from 4.346 billion last year. USDA cut yields a bit and also cut harvested area. US ending stocks were less than expected at 210 million bushels, from 220 million last month. The quarterly stocks report showed that Soybeans supplies are currently at 1.280 billion bushels, from 1.377 billion last year. Brazil and Argentina production estimates were left unchanged. Farmers are not selling many Soybeans in the US as many are waiting for a rally to sell into. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, Current forecasts suggest that the showers currently in the forecast for late this week or this weekend will not able to make a real dent in the drought. Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are now closer to 40 million tons than original projections near 50 million. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1557 and 1574 March. Support is at 1513, 1500, and 1487 March, and resistance is at 1540, 1552, and 1564 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 488.00 and 508.00 March. Support is at 469.00, 466.00, and 457.00 March, and resistance is at 485.00, 487.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6190, 6150, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6450, 6520, and 6670 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week as demand ideas remain uncertain and as the production uncertainty continues. Futures rallied a bit yesterday but made new lows for the move today. Current forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was a little higher yesterday in sympathy with the rallies in Soybeans and Soybean Oil. A rally in Crude Oil futures lso supported Canola. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 822.00 March. Support is at 831.00, 810.00, and 800.00 March, with resistance at 852.00, 863.00, and 874.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3740 and 3500 April. Support is at 3840, 3820, and 3760 April, with resistance at 4000, 4040, and 4130 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January
110 Mar
180 Mar
1340 Mar
140 Jan

February
105 Mar
175 Mar
135 Mar
130 Mar

March
100 Mar
165 Mar
135 Mar
120 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 17
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Jan. 17, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 833.65 -7.25 Mar 23 up 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 871.90 30.00 Mar 23 up 1.00
Basis: Vancouver 899.90 58.00 Mar 23 up 3.00
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 935.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
March 935.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 940.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 940.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 945.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
March 945.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 950.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 950.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 910.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 700.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3900.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 239.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3175)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 110,046 lots, or 6.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 5,445 5,500 5,426 5,490 5,411 5,479 68 13,613 20,809
May-23 5,426 5,491 5,423 5,477 5,403 5,467 64 80,605 123,454
Jul-23 5,453 5,468 5,406 5,446 5,386 5,446 60 10,613 30,998
Sep-23 5,403 5,458 5,403 5,445 5,387 5,442 55 2,094 8,716
Nov-23 5,456 5,463 5,413 5,452 5,388 5,439 51 3,114 13,726
Jan-24 5,422 5,423 5,418 5,418 5,396 5,420 24 7 14
Corn
Turnover: 483,029 lots, or 13.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 2,879 2,900 2,875 2,898 2,883 2,889 6 313,217 739,766
May-23 2,876 2,885 2,869 2,884 2,871 2,877 6 69,161 398,498
Jul-23 2,847 2,862 2,845 2,860 2,847 2,853 6 56,835 331,275
Sep-23 2,835 2,845 2,831 2,843 2,832 2,837 5 7,264 55,391
Nov-23 2,799 2,810 2,790 2,808 2,798 2,800 2 36,360 91,560
Jan-24 2,780 2,793 2,780 2,789 2,782 2,787 5 192 361
Soymeal
Turnover: 917,521 lots, or 36.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 4,276 4,356 4,262 4,336 4,266 4,316 50 102,718 252,433
May-23 3,892 3,967 3,867 3,952 3,879 3,925 46 630,173 1,299,236
Jul-23 3,856 3,929 3,835 3,916 3,846 3,884 38 38,813 135,468
Aug-23 3,890 3,962 3,879 3,946 3,890 3,921 31 38,554 83,157
Sep-23 3,863 3,933 3,845 3,917 3,859 3,896 37 67,540 196,927
Nov-23 3,818 3,873 3,795 3,857 3,806 3,840 34 28,821 33,119
Dec-23 3,789 3,834 3,764 3,819 3,781 3,805 24 9,241 16,858
Jan-24 3,748 3,800 3,739 3,787 3,752 3,769 17 1,661 2,926
Palm Oil
Turnover: 852,448 lots, or 66.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-23 7,642 7,778 7,614 7,700 7,612 7,700 88 8,824 10,354
Mar-23 7,696 7,818 7,674 7,766 7,696 7,752 56 26,019 78,347
Apr-23 7,744 7,874 7,722 7,844 7,744 7,806 62 10,150 61,553
May-23 7,750 7,886 7,736 7,840 7,762 7,812 50 776,273 541,226
Jun-23 7,762 7,898 7,760 7,864 7,788 7,830 42 9,195 37,088
Jul-23 7,802 7,918 7,774 7,906 7,792 7,846 54 7,421 23,709
Aug-23 7,780 7,898 7,760 7,812 7,778 7,840 62 4,447 13,761
Sep-23 7,770 7,900 7,756 7,856 7,768 7,824 56 10,058 19,041
Oct-23 7,748 7,748 7,748 7,748 7,742 7,748 6 1 37
Nov-23 7,802 7,856 7,762 7,856 7,728 7,812 84 14 171
Dec-23 7,754 7,892 7,620 7,812 7,738 7,796 58 23 57
Jan-24 7,730 7,838 7,700 7,806 7,720 7,766 46 23 14
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 577,972 lots, or 50.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-23 8,880 9,064 8,852 9,026 8,846 8,968 122 17,454 63,720
May-23 8,560 8,772 8,552 8,736 8,548 8,662 114 506,536 415,964
Jul-23 8,594 8,700 8,498 8,656 8,508 8,614 106 7,871 56,102
Aug-23 8,502 8,688 8,480 8,688 8,486 8,590 104 7,934 27,858
Sep-23 8,468 8,628 8,448 8,600 8,460 8,542 82 28,973 30,723
Nov-23 8,466 8,590 8,444 8,548 8,458 8,532 74 7,498 14,410
Dec-23 8,472 8,598 8,460 8,550 8,456 8,552 96 1,655 4,092
Jan-24 8,458 8,556 8,440 8,532 8,444 8,498 54 51 55
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322