Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Softs Report 01/13/2023
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday and remains firmly inside the trading range created over the last couple of months. The USDA reports were considered bearish as USDA increased domestic production estimates and cut US and world demand to increase ending stocks for both. US ending stocks were estimated at 4.20 million bales, from 3.5 million last month. World ending stocks were estimated at 89.93 million bales, from 89.56 million last month. Ideas of weak demand continue to be heard and the weekly export sales report was poor once again. Futures have been stuck in the same trading range since the beginning of November but are showing signs of wanting to work higher despite bad demand fundamentals. Overall, the demand for US Cotton has not been strong. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months were hurt by news of Covid outbreaks in China. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.87 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,900 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 80.50, 79.80, and 78.80 March, with resistance of 84.70, 86.10 and 88.00 March.
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item Dec Jan
Planted 12.09 11.22 13.79 13.76
Harvested 8.22 10.27 7.88 7.44
Yield per Harvested
Acre 853 819 868 947
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.75 3.75
Production 14.61 17.52 14.24 14.68
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 21.86 20.68 18.00 18.44
Domestic Use 2.40 2.55 2.20 2.20
Exports, Total 16.35 14.62 12.25 12.00
Use, Total 18.75 17.17 14.45 14.20
Unaccounted 2/ -0.04 -0.24 0.05 0.04
Ending Stocks 3.15 3.75 3.50 4.20
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 66.3 91.4 85.0 83.0
WASDE – 632 – 18 January 2023
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
Dec 85.44 115.73 42.27 111.70 42.25 -0.07 89.56
Jan 85.34 115.40 41.63 110.85 41.66 -0.08 89.93
World Less China
Dec 48.13 87.73 34.27 76.20 42.13 -0.07 51.87
Jan 48.03 87.40 33.88 75.35 41.53 -0.08 52.49
Dec 3.75 14.24 0.01 2.20 12.25 0.05 3.50
Jan 3.75 14.68 0.01 2.20 12.00 0.04 4.20
Dec 81.69 101.49 42.27 109.50 30.00 -0.12 86.06
Jan 81.59 100.72 41.62 108.65 29.66 -0.12 85.73
Major Exporters 4/
Dec 32.21 58.49 2.40 31.66 25.86 -0.17 35.75
Jan 32.11 57.74 2.45 31.16 25.54 -0.17 35.78
Major Importers 8/
Dec 46.75 39.74 37.60 73.75 2.87 0.06 47.41
Jan 46.75 39.74 36.90 73.41 2.87 0.06 47.06
WASDE – 632 – 28 January 2023
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Trends are still trying to turn up again on the daily charts. Demand should start to improve now with the holidays now over. USDA estimated Florida Oranges production at just 18 million boxes, from 20 million in its previous estimate. US production was estimated at 2.7 million tons, down 22% from last month.. The supply situation in the US and in the world market looks very tight. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are 40% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 212.00 and 220.00 March. Support is at 204.00, 201.00, and 197.00 March, with resistance at 209.00, 214.00, and 217.00 March.
Orange Production Down 5 Percent from December Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is
2.70 million tons, down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 22
percent from the 2021- 2022 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (810,000 tons), is down 10 percent from the
previous forecast and down 56 percent from last season’s final utilization.
In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 7.00
million boxes (315,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
down 62 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 11.0 million boxes (495,000 tons), is down 15 percent
from the previous forecast and down 52 percent from last season’s final
The California all orange forecast is 46.1 million boxes (1.84 million tons),
is down 2 percent from previous forecast but up 14 percent from last season’s
final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 38.0 million boxes
(1.52 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 19 percent
from last season’s final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast
is 8.10 million boxes (324,000 tons), down 11 percent from the previous
forecast and down 6 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Texas
all orange forecast, at 1.15 million boxes (49,000 tons) unchanged from the
previous forecast but up significantly from last season’s final utilization.
This report was approved on January 12, 2023.
DJ Retail Orange Juice Sales Get Less of a Boost From Covid-19 — Market Talk
0923 ET – The Covid-19 boost for orange-juice sales is starting to lose its power. US stores sold 35.17M gallons of orange juice in the four weeks ended Dec. 31, the highest level since January 2022, according to Nielsen data provided by the Florida Department of Citrus. But that’s still down 7.2% from 2021 and down 5.9% from the comparable period of 2020. Retail prices once again surged to a new all-time high of $8.52 a gallon. (email@example.com)
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and as the fund selling dried up. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now and as offers stayed strong from Brazil and increasingly from Vietnam. Vietnamese sellers should remain more active in the next couple of weeks as they ty to get sales on the books before the Tet holiday. Buying interest is also reduced, but ideas are that the buy side needs Coffee now. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affected the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee either way when the next harvest comes in a few months. Vietnam exported 187,077 tons of Coffee last month, up 53% from the previous month. Vietnamese 2022 exports were 13.8% higher than in 2021.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.845 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 150.32 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 141.00 and 138.00 March. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 March, and resistance is at 154.00, 159.00 and 163.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1790, 1780, and 1770 March, and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 March.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed mixed yesterday. Reports indicate that the fund selling seen in recent days has dried up, allowing a recovery rally to develop. Ideas are that mills in Brazil will be encouraged to produce more Sugar than Ethanol due to policy changes proposed by the Lula administration. These ideas were enhanced by news that Brazil president Lula has frozen fuel taxes at current levels, giving Ethanol producers a reason to switch to Sugar as Ethanol profit margins could be squeezed by the tax moves. The harvest has been delayed in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also delayed. There is talk that production in India will be reduced this year after some bad weather and reduced yields reported in Maharashtra. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop but bad for harvest and loading at ports as it is still raining in production areas. World Sugar is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Unica said yesterday that Brazil mills crushed 2.6 million tons of Sugarcane in the last two week period, from just 8,500 tons in the same period last year. The mills produced 165,000 tons of Sugar and 322.2 million liters of Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1930, 1890, and 1850 March and resistance is at 1980, 2010, and 2030 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 535.00, 527.00, and 522.00 March and resistance is at 551.00, 556.00, and 559.00 March.
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item Dec Jan
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1618 1705 1814 1819
Production 2/ 9233 9156 9039 9248
Beet Sugar 5092 5155 4927 5048
Cane Sugar 4141 4000 4111 4199
Florida 2090 1933 1989 1989
Louisiana 1918 1944 2025 2113
Texas 134 124 97 97
Imports 3221 3646 3494 3458
TRQ 3/ 1749 1579 1691 1606
Other Program 4/ 292 298 250 250
Non-program 1180 1769 1552 1602
Mexico 968 1379 1477 1477
High-tier tariff/other 212 390 75 125
Total Supply 14072 14506 14347 14525
Exports 49 29 35 35
Deliveries 12277 12578 12605 12605
Food 12161 12470 12500 12500
Other 5/ 116 107 105 105
Miscellaneous 40 81 0 0
Total Use 12367 12688 12640 12640
Ending Stocks 1705 1819 1707 1885
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.8 14.3 13.5 14.9
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Dec 1053 6185 31 4629 1676 964
Jan 1053 6185 31 4629 1676 964
Dec 964 5900 35 4662 1266 971
Jan 964 5900 35 4661 1267 971
WASDE – 632 – 17 January 2023
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly higher yesterday on follow through buying. There are still reports of dry weather in West Africa that could hurt production potential. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Ivory coast arrivals are now 1.172 million tons, up 14% from last year. The Ivory Coast Cocoa grind is now 113,803 tons, up 6.9% from last year. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Nigeria is reporting that Harmattan winds have arrived, but no significant effects are reported for now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.101 mi0lion bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2590, 2570, and 2540 March, with resistance at 2670, 2700, and 2730 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2020, 2000, and 1980 March, with resistance at 2090, 2120, and 2160 March.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322