About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 13 

Source: CME Group

Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity     Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL   January    Jan 17, 2023               25   Jan 12, 2023

ROUGH RICE    January    Jan 17, 2023               14   Jan 12, 2023

SOYBEAN       January    Jan 17, 2023               50   Dec 22, 2022

 

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks 

The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.

U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2022 (million bushels)

Thursday’s                              USDA        USDA

Estimate    Average      Range      Sept. 2022   Dec. 2021

Corn          10,809      11,187   10,737-11,937    1,377       11,641

Soybeans       3,022       3,145    3,000- 3,450      274        3,137

Wheat          1,280       1,347    1,307- 1,429    1,778        1,377

 

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings 

The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report

and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’

forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.

U.S. 2023 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates

Thursday’s                              USDA

Estimate    Average     Range         2022

All Winter Wheat     37.0        34.5    33.4 – 36.2     33.3

Hard Red Winter      25.3        23.9    22.1 – 25.0     23.1

Soft Red Winter      7.90         6.9     6.5 – 7.5       6.6

White Winter         3.73         3.6     3.5 – 3.8       3.6

 

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jan 12 

U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,

cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and

Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)

bales.

Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey

date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.

======U.S.======      ================WORLD===================

Ending Stocks           Exports               Production

22/23  21/22  20/21 : 22/23  21/22    20/21 : 22/23    21/22  20/21

Soybeans  210.0  274.0  257.0 :167.53  153.89  164.99 : 388.01  358.10  368.52

Brazil      na     na     na : 91.00   79.14   81.65 : 153.00  129.50  139.50

Argentina   na     na     na :  5.70    2.86    5.20 :  45.50   43.90   46.20

China       na     na     na :  0.10    0.10    0.07 :  20.33   16.40   19.60

Soyoil    1,901  1,991  2,131 : 12.28   12.15   12.61 :  61.49   59.26   59.23

Corn      1,242  1,377  1,235 :178.17  204.03  182.70 :  1,156   1,215   1,129

China       na     na     na :  0.02    0.00    0.00 : 277.20  272.55  260.67

Argentina   na     na     na : 38.00   35.50   40.94 :  52.00   49.50   52.00

S.Africa    na     na     na :  3.40    3.20    3.73 :  16.70   16.10   16.95

Cotton     4.20   3.75   3.15 : 41.66   42.86   48.73 : 115.40  115.72  111.49

All Wheat   567    698    845 :211.62  202.55  203.33 : 781.31  779.31  774.55

China       na     na     na :  0.90    0.88    0.76 : 137.72  136.95  134.25

European

Union    na     na     na : 36.50   31.92   29.74 : 134.70  138.22  126.68

Canada      na     na     na : 26.00   15.13   26.43 :  33.82   22.30   35.44

Argentina   na     na     na :  7.50   15.98   11.53 :  12.50   22.15   17.64

Australia   na     na     na : 27.50   27.53   23.77 :  36.60   36.35   31.92

Russia      na     na     na : 43.00   33.00   39.10 :  91.00   75.16   85.35

Ukraine     na     na     na : 13.00   18.84   16.85 :  21.00   33.01   25.42

Sorghum    25.0   47.0   20.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na

Barley     61.0   42.0   71.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na

Oats       32.0   33.0   38.0 :    na      na      na :     na      na      na

Rice       32.1   39.7   43.7 : 54.34   56.84   51.15 : 502.97  514.95  509.33

 

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report 

Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the

government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a

Wall Street Journal Survey.

U.S. Corn, Soybean Production

(Production in million bushels)

(Yield in bushels per acre)

(Harvested area in million acres)

Thursday’s                                USDA

Estimate      Average     Range       December

Corn Production      13,730.0        13,922   13,849-14,000  13,930

Corn Yield              173.3         172.4    171.4-173.2    172.3

Harvested Acres          79.2          80.7     80.5-80.9      80.8

Soybean Production    4,276.0         4,360    4,321-4,436    4,346

Soybean Yield            49.5          50.3     49.9-50.8      50.2

Harvested Acres          86.3          86.6     86.3-86.9      86.6

****

U.S. 2022-23 Stockpiles (million bushels)

Thursday’s                              USDA

Estimate     Average     Range      December

Corn                   1,242.0       1,302   1,075-1,405    1,257

Soybeans                 210.0         236     205-289        220

Wheat                    567.0         582     556-605        571

****

World 2022-23 Stockpiles (million metric tons)

Thursday’s

Estimate      Average       Range         USDA Dec.

Corn                    296.4         298.0      290.0-300.3      298.4

Soybeans                103.5        101.9       95.2-107.5      102.7

Wheat                   268.4        268.3      265.4-272.5      267.3

 

DJ IGC Raises Global Grain Production Forecasts 

By Will Horner

The International Grains Council raised its forecasts for global grain production and consumption this year while lowering its expectations for carryover stocks.

The intergovernmental organization said in its monthly report Thursday that global grain production in the 2022-23 season would be 2.256 billion metric tons, 1 million tons more than it was expecting last month.

The IGC also raised its forecast for demand by 3 million tons to 2.275 billion tons and lowered its carryover stocks forecast by 3 million tons to 577 million tons.

The upward revisions to its demand expectations come largely from wheat harvests which are seen at 796 million tons this year, 5 million tons more than last month’s forecasts.

The IGC cut its forecasts for corn production by 5 million tons to 1.161 billion tons, while its forecasts for soybeans were reduced by 3 million tons to 385 million tons.

 

DJ Brazil Cuts 2022-2023 Soybean, Corn Forecasts 

By Jeffrey T. Lewis

SÃO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecasts for soybean and corn production for the 2022-2023 growing season because of bad weather in some areas.

Brazilian farmers will produce 152.7 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Thursday. In December, the agency forecast a crop of 153.5 million tons. Brazil produced 125.5 million tons of soybeans in the 2021-2022 season.

Brazilian farmers will produce 125.1 million metric tons of corn this season, the agency said. In December, the agency forecast a crop of 125.8 million tons. Brazil produced 113.1 million tons of corn in 2021-2022.

Farmers in some regions got a late start in their planting work because of the unfavorable weather as well, said Candice Romero Santos, Conab’s superintendent of agricultural information.

“The start of sowing was slightly delayed, influenced by excessive rainfall and low temperatures in parts of the states in the south and southeast regions. There were also water restrictions, allied to low soil humidity in part of the Midwest region and in Matopiba, but planting was completed within the agricultural calendar,” Ms. Santos said.

 

WHEAT 

General Comments Wheat markets were higher yesterday in recovery trading in response to the USDA reports.  USDA estimated Winter Wheat planted area at 37 miillion acres, from 33.3 million last year.  However, current ending stocks were estimated at 567 million bushels, from 571 million last month.  World ending stocks levels were increased due tobig Russian production and the difficulty of moving grain from the Black Sea.  The quarterly stocks report showed supplies at 1.280 billion bushels now, from 1.377 bijllion last year.  There are still ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market.  Russia offered to Egypt earlier this week at what were considered very low prices.  The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and was hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.  Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war.  The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and  there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed,  Support is at 721, 714, and 702 March, with resistance at 758, 768, and 7672 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 822, 803, and 792 March, with resistance at 859, 861, and 876 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 902, 890, and 888 March, and resistance is at 901, 915, and 938 March.

 

RICE:                                                 

General Comments:  Rice was higher in response to the USDA reports.  USDA estimated US production at 160.4 million cwt this month, from 164.3 million last month.  Ending stocks were estimated at 32.1 million cwt, from 38.1 million last month.  Long Grain production was estimated at `18.2 million cwt, from 131.7 million last month.  Ending stocks were estimated at 21.8 million cwt, from 27.3 million last month.  World ending stocks are now estimated at 169.98 million tons, from 168.64 million last month and are now estimated at 61.98 million tons with China out of the equation, from 60.64 million last month..  The US Dollar was sharply lower and world petroleum prices were higher to help Rice rally.  There is not much going on in the domestic market right now.  Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market.  Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1760, 1750, and 1735 March and resistance is at 1832, 1848, and 1852 March.

 

 

CORN AND OATS 

General Comments:  Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports that were considered bullish for prices.  USDA cut production to just 13,730 billion bushels, from 13.930 billion last year.  Harvested acreage was cut to account for the loss.  Yields were up 1.0 bushels per acre to 173.3 bu/acre.  Ending stocks were cut to 1.242 billion bushels for the US and 296.4 million tons for the world.  Quarterly stocks showed that current supplies are 10.809 billion bushels, from 11.641 billion last year.   Brazil and Argentina estimates were about unchanged. Demand for US Corn remains muted even as forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen.  Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought.  The Brazil Winter crop is harvested.  Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market.  There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales.  China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve.  The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time  South American prices are currently close to or above than those in the US.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 675 and 681 March.  Support is at 664, 659, and 649 March, and resistance is at 677, 680, and 686 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 371 and 391 March.  Support is at 351, 346, and 335 March, and resistance is at 363, 368, and 377 March.

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports.  USDA showed production at 4.276 billion bushels, from 4.346 billion last year.  USDA cut yields a bit and also cut harvested area.  US ending stocks were less than expected at 210 million bushels, from 220 million last month.  The quarterly stocks report showed that Soybeans supplies are currently at 1.280 billion bushels, from 1.377 billion last year.  Brazil and Argentina production estimates were left unchanged.  There are forecasts for a few showers to dot the landscape of southern Brazil and Argentina for today, but the rains should be light and not all that important to crops.  Soybean Meal closed higher on reports tat Argentine Meal basis was at record highs and Soybean Oil was lower.  Farmers are not selling many Soybeans in the US as many are waiting for a rally to sell into.  Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again,  A few showers could appear about Thursday but ideas and forecasts suggest that the showers will be few and far between and not able to make a real dent in the drought  Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported.  Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south.  Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now.  Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed.  Production estimates are starting to fall well below 50 million tons.  There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people.  Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid.  This has delayed a robust economic return for the country.  Export demand for the US is on pace for what is needed to meet USDA projections.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1537 and 1574 March.  Support is at 1450, 1487, and 1474 March, and resistance is at 1582, 1540, and 1552 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 488.00 and 508.00 March.  Support is at 471.00, 466.00, and 457.00 March, and resistance is at 484.00, 487.00, and 490.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 6210, 6150, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6450, 6520, and 6670 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:   Palm Oil closed lower today as demand ideas remain uncertain and as the production uncertainty continues.  Currnnet forecasts call for the rainy season to end soon and for fieldwork and harvest conditions to improve.  Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before.  Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors.  Hopes for improved demand from China were reported.  China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again.  However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing.  Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market.  There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia.  Canola was lower again today.  Demand for export has been less.  Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies.  Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.  Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 822.00 March.  Support is at 833.00, 810.00, and 800.00 March, with resistance at 852.00, 863.00, and 874.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3870 and 3670 March.  Support is at 3850, 3790, and 3750 March, with resistance at 4000, 4150, and 4270 March.

 

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports 1.47M Tons; Down 3.5%, MPOB Says  

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 3.5% on month at 1.47 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:

December   November        Change

On Month

Crude Palm Oil Output  1,618,853  1,680,741  Dn     3.68%

Palm Oil Exports  1,468,448  1,521,329  Dn     3.48%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports    134,429     78,752  Up     70.7%

Palm Oil Imports     47,114     47,047  Up     0.14%

Closing Stocks  2,194,809  2,288,471  Dn     4.09%

Crude Palm Oil  1,292,166  1,303,535  Dn     0.87%

Processed Palm Oil    902,643    984,936  Dn     8.36%

 

 

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:  Mostly dry conditions or isolated rain and snow showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis  
               
               
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil  
January 110 Mar 180 Mar 1340 Mar 140 Jan  
 

February

105 Mar 175 Mar 135 Mar 130 Mar  
March 100 Mar 165 Mar 135 Mar 120 Mar  
         

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 11 

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          834.35    -7.25     Mar. 2023    dn 17.00

Basis: Thunder Bay   861.80    30.00     Mar. 2023    dn  9.80

Basis: Vancouver     887.80    56.00     Mar. 2023    dn  9.80

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day.

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Janauary 13 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           930.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           930.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

March         930.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   935.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   935.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

-Jan           940.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           940.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

March         940.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   945.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   945.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           900.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           700.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           3900.00    00.00       Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           237.00     -01.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.337)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 13 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 128,967 lots, or .69 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-23         –         –         –     5,400     5,400     5,400         0         0         0

Mar-23     5,286     5,340     5,286     5,336     5,286     5,314        28    11,747    28,008

May-23     5,296     5,356     5,286     5,339     5,261     5,322        61   101,899   125,416

Jul-23     5,280     5,340     5,274     5,323     5,250     5,304        54     8,517    28,703

Sep-23     5,270     5,341     5,270     5,324     5,249     5,304        55     2,947     9,405

Nov-23     5,270     5,344     5,270     5,331     5,255     5,306        51     3,857    13,485

Corn

Turnover: 676,443 lots, or 19.45 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-23     2,855     2,895     2,855     2,866     2,853     2,861         8       771         1

Mar-23     2,884     2,910     2,864     2,877     2,875     2,884         9   458,077   741,379

May-23     2,868     2,885     2,861     2,871     2,865     2,873         8   118,087   391,818

Jul-23     2,844     2,865     2,838     2,841     2,838     2,847         9    57,348   336,754

Sep-23     2,831     2,848     2,826     2,829     2,827     2,834         7     8,690    54,005

Nov-23     2,809     2,824     2,797     2,799     2,808     2,810         2    33,470    89,288

Soymeal

Turnover: 918,510 lots, or 36.14 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-23     4,800     4,855     4,387     4,387     4,703     4,693       -10       636       4,866

Mar-23     4,234     4,279     4,212     4,276     4,196     4,244        48   113,425     277,868

May-23     3,877     3,921     3,867     3,916     3,854     3,896        42   621,285   1,299,445

Jul-23     3,844     3,885     3,834     3,885     3,819     3,859        40    37,564     134,422

Aug-23     3,894     3,933     3,879     3,930     3,867     3,909        42    36,939      84,627

Sep-23     3,850     3,902     3,850     3,898     3,841     3,879        38    68,327     197,910

Nov-23     3,804     3,849     3,798     3,847     3,788     3,824        36    31,054      33,615

Dec-23     3,782     3,814     3,778     3,805     3,774     3,796        22     9,280      16,954

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,177,864 lots, or 9.16 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol      Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-23     7,482     7,482     7,352     7,352     7,712     7,454      -258           5     4,075

Feb-23     7,668     7,742     7,542     7,598     7,668     7,652       -16       9,902    25,854

Mar-23     7,710     7,808     7,600     7,658     7,708     7,696       -12      33,475    83,399

Apr-23     7,776     7,864     7,648     7,714     7,766     7,766         0      12,116    58,851

May-23     7,830     7,898     7,676     7,750     7,790     7,776       -14   1,085,923   525,927

Jun-23     7,818     7,904     7,700     7,772     7,782     7,798        16      10,223    35,150

Jul-23     7,826     7,914     7,722     7,778     7,800     7,814        14       9,030    21,925

Aug-23     7,810     7,906     7,706     7,768     7,812     7,806        -6       2,987    12,852

Sep-23     7,864     7,922     7,704     7,768     7,820     7,798       -22      14,178    15,005

Oct-23     7,748     7,752     7,748     7,752     7,750     7,748        -2           4        36

Nov-23     7,804     7,838     7,712     7,712     7,780     7,766       -14          14       171

Dec-23     7,810     7,810     7,728     7,728     7,784     7,786         2           7        51

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 676,946 lots, or 57.92 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-23     8,698     8,698     8,698     8,698     8,800     8,698      -102        48       616

Mar-23     8,810     8,922     8,748     8,820     8,812     8,826        14    23,708    67,504

May-23     8,548     8,658     8,452     8,534     8,536     8,552        16   598,136   444,930

Jul-23     8,504     8,600     8,414     8,490     8,482     8,494        12     7,906    56,270

Aug-23     8,474     8,580     8,400     8,474     8,458     8,486        28     8,662    28,352

Sep-23     8,498     8,548     8,356     8,452     8,416     8,450        34    28,155    32,252

Nov-23     8,400     8,504     8,328     8,442     8,384     8,446        62     8,597    13,894

Dec-23     8,410     8,524     8,356     8,458     8,410     8,446        36     1,734     3,941

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322