Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 01/11/2023
DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2022 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2021-2022
Corn Production 13,922 13,849-14,000 13,930 15,074
Corn Yield 172.4 171.4-173.2 172.3 176.7
Harvested Acres 80.7 80.5-80.9 80.8 85.3
Soybean Production 4,360 4,321-4,436 4,346 4,465
Soybean Yield 50.3 49.9-50.8 50.2 51.7
Harvested Acres 86.6 86.3-86.9 86.6 86.3
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Harvested Production Yield Harvested
Acres Acres
AgriSompo North America 13,871 172.1 80.6 4,340 50.3 86.3
Agrisource 13,884 172.0 80.7 4,337 50.0 86.7
Allendale 13,933 172.4 80.8 4,361 50.3 86.7
Doane 14,000 173.2 80.8 4,400 50.8 86.6
Futures International 13,879 172.0 80.7 4,341 50.1 86.6
Grain Cycles 13,973 172.8 80.9 4,368 50.3 86.8
Linn Group 13,849 171.4 80.8 4,346 50.2 86.6
Midland Research 13,870 171.9 80.7 4,324 50.0 86.5
Midwest Market Solutions 13,972 172.9 80.8 4,377 50.5 86.7
Sid Love Consulting 13,910 172.8 80.5 4,358 50.5 86.3
Marex Group 13,898 172.0 80.8 4,330 50.0 86.6
North Star Commodity 13,897 172.0 80.8 4,321 49.9 86.6
Prime Ag 13,900 172.0 80.8 4,330 50.0 86.6
RMC 13,962 172.8 80.8 4,436 50.2 86.6
RJ O’Brien 13,925 172.2 4,358 50.3
StoneX Group 13,984 173.0 80.8 4,384 50.6 86.6
US Commodities 13,978 173.0 80.8 4,390 50.7 86.6
VantageRM 13,946 172.5 80.8 4,346 50.2 86.6
Zaner Ag Hedge 13,878 172.4 80.5 4,388 50.5 86.9
DJ U.S. January Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK-The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. 2022-23 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2021-22
Corn 1,302 1,075-1,405 1,257 1,377
Soybeans 236 205-289 220 274
Wheat 582 556-605 571 669
2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,283 235 601
Agrisource 1,312 210 570
Allendale 1,355 207 588
Doane 1,400 255 600
Futures International 1,181 236 572
Grain Cycles 1,325 242 566
Linn Group 1,075 262 603
Sid Love Consulting 1,337 238 596
Marex Group 1,300 210 571
Midland Research 1,272 208 586
Midwest Market Solutions 1,303 261 595
Northstar Commodity 1,332 205 590
Prime Ag 1,302 210 571
RMC 1,375 235 605
RJ O’Brien 1,247 234 584
StoneX Group 1,286 257 556
US Commodities 1,405 289 565
VantageRM 1,313 236 571
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,334 250 571
DJ January World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK-The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World 2022-23 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23 USDA
Average Range December
Corn 298.0 290.0-300.3 298.4
Soybeans 101.9 95.2-107.5 102.7
Wheat 268.3 265.4-272.5 267.3
2022-23
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 299.1 102.8 267.3
Allendale 300.1 100.9 266.3
Futures International 292.5 99.1 270.5
Grain Cycles 299.5 101.2 270.5
Linn Group 290.0 95.2 271.0
Marex Group 300.0 103.0 268.0
Midwest Market Solutions 299.8 103.5 266.5
Northstar Commodity 297.0 101.0 267.9
Prime Ag 298.0 100.0 267.0
RMC 299.4 107.5 272.5
StoneX Group 299.8 103.7 265.4
US Commodities 298.1 102.0 268.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 300.3 104.4 266.6
DJ Survey: Dec. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for December 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2022 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Sept. 2022 Dec. 2021
Corn 11,187 10,737-11,937 1,377 11,642
Soybeans 3,145 3,000-3,450 274 3,152
Wheat 1,347 1,307-1,429 1,776 1,378
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 11,780 3,090 1,348
Allendale 10,752 3,121 1,307
Doane 10,975 3,155 1,315
Futures International 10,816 3,088 1,347
Grain Cycles 10,930 3,155 1,337
Linn Group 10,810 3,112 1,384
Sid Love Consulting 10,737 3,150 1,363
Marex Group 11,890 3,125 1,350
Midland Research 11,012 3,120 1,312
Midwest Market Solutions 11,642 3,152 1,378
Northstar Commodity 10,824 3,147 1,396
Prime Ag 11,000 3,450 1,325
RMC 11,400 3,000 1,340
RJ O’Brien 10,945 3,149 1,319
StoneX Group 11,097 3,189 1,356
U.S. Commodities 11,125 3,186 1,330
Vantage RM 11,695 3,092 1,315
Zaner Ag Hedge 11,937 3,127 1,429
DJ Survey: USDA U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of acres for 2023 U.S. winter wheat that was planted in October and November, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2023 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2022
All Winter Wheat 34.5 33.4-36.2 33.3
Hard Red Winter 23.9 22.1-25.0 23.1
Soft Red Winter 6.9 6.5-7.5 6.6
White Winter 3.6 3.5-3.8 3.6
All Winter Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Allendale 34.8 24.3 6.8 3.7
Doane 35.7 24.8 7.2 3.7
Futures International 34.3 24.0 6.7 3.6
Grain Cycles 33.9 23.5 6.7 3.7
Linn Group 33.5 23.2 6.7 3.6
Sid Love Consulting 34.5 24.0 7.0 3.5
Marex Group 35.0 24.0 7.4 3.6
Midland Research 34.0 23.4 7.0 3.7
Midwest Market Solutions 34.5 24.5 6.5 3.5
Northstar Commodity 36.2 25.0 7.5 3.7
RMC 33.5 22.1 6.5 3.5
RJ O’Brien 34.4 24.0 6.8 3.6
StoneX Group 34.7 24.2 6.9 3.7
U.S. Commodities 33.6 23.1 6.6 3.6
Vantage RM 35.5 24.8 6.9 3.8
Zaner Ag Hedge 33.4 23.1 6.6 3.6
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on selling tied to ideas of weak demand and big Russian production that should help foster price weakness in the world market. Russia offered to Eghypt yesterday at what were considered very low prices. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and was hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 704 March, Support is at 721, 714, and 702 March, with resistance at 743, 758, and 766 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 796 March. Support is at 803, 792, and 786 March, with resistance at 829, 831, and 849 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 887 and 859 March. Support is at 888, 882, and 876 March, and resistance is at 901, 915, and 938 March.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again and has completed the retracement from the lows set last week. The US Dollar was sharply lower and world petroleum prices were higher to help Rice rally. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1780, 1770, and 1750 March and resistance is at 1832, 1848, and 1852 March.
DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 11
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.03 10.71 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.70 11.10 0.00
Brokens 9.90 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 54.28/14.78 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.31/10.41 7.00
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed and Oats closed a little higher yesterday despite ideas of less demand and the potential for USDA to raise ending stocks estimates in the next WASDE reports that will be released tomorrow. Demand for US Corn remains muted even as forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen. Brazil has been hanging on for its Summer crop but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought. The Brazil Winter crop is harvested. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. The improvement might take some time as the Chinese people get Covid, but they should be past this episode in a few weeks and demand might start to improve at that time South American prices are currently close to or above than those in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 644, and 635 March, and resistance is at 660, 664, and 667 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 312 March. Support is at 335, 330, and 328 March, and resistance is at 350, 354, and 363 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little lower yesterday on forecasts for a few showers to dot the landscape of southern Brazil and Argentina later this week. Traders were also getting ready for the USDA reports that will be released tomorrow. Soybean Meal closed lower and Soybean Oil was lower. Farmers are not selling many Soybeans in the US as many are waiting for a rally to sell into. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, A few showers could appear about Thursday but ideas and forecasts suggest that the showers will be few and far between and not able to make a real dent in the drought Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Even so, production of less than 150 million tons is possible now. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. Production estimates are starting to fall well below 50 million tons. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country. Export demand for the US is improved from previous weeks and is on pace for what is needed to meet USDA projections.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 124,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1474, 1468, and 1465 March, and resistance is at 1502, 1514, and 1521 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 479.00, 588.00, and 508.00 March. Support is at 457.00, 453.00, and 444.00 March, and resistance is at 476.00, 479.00, and 481.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6210, 6150, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6450, 6520, and 6670 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today as demand ideas remain uncertain and as the production uncertainty continues. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Malaysia. Canola was sharply lower on weakness in Chicago. Ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 842.00 and 822.00 March. Support is at 838.00, 833.00, and 810.00 March, with resistance at 852.00, 863.00, and 874.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3870 and 3670 March. Support is at 43850, 3790, and 3750 March, with resistance at 4000, 4150, and 4270 March.
DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 44.6% on Month, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for Jan. 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 44.6% from the previous month to 262,201 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-10 December 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 85,039 112,603
RBD Palm Oil 25,046 23,770
RBD Palm Stearin 9,995 25,300
Crude Palm Oil 55,000 164,640
Total* 262,201 473,086
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.
DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports 1.47M Tons; Down 3.5%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 3.5% on month at 1.47 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:
December November Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,618,853 1,680,741 Dn 3.68%
Palm Oil Exports 1,468,448 1,521,329 Dn 3.48%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 134,429 78,752 Up 70.7%
Palm Oil Imports 47,114 47,047 Up 0.14%
Closing Stocks 2,194,809 2,288,471 Dn 4.09%
Crude Palm Oil 1,292,166 1,303,535 Dn 0.87%
Processed Palm Oil 902,643 984,936 Dn 8.36%
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions or isolated rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
February
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 851.35 -7.25 Mar. 2023 dn 10.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 871.60 30.00 Mar. 2023 dn 17.00
Basis: Vancouver 897.60 56.00 Mar. 2023 dn 17.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Janauary 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 932.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 935.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
March 940.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 945.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 940.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 942.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 945.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
March 950.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 955.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 950.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 910.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 710.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3900.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 238.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.369)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 92,024 lots, or 4.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 – – – 5,400 5,400 5,400 0 0 240
Mar-23 5,298 5,320 5,279 5,284 5,291 5,294 3 15,004 30,322
May-23 5,281 5,289 5,255 5,258 5,252 5,271 19 66,811 121,843
Jul-23 5,235 5,268 5,235 5,250 5,235 5,253 18 6,675 27,750
Sep-23 5,262 5,277 5,241 5,253 5,239 5,258 19 1,938 10,119
Nov-23 5,268 5,280 5,245 5,245 5,247 5,260 13 1,596 14,089
Corn
Turnover: 452,457 lots, or 12.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 – – – 2,855 2,858 2,855 -3 0 3,063
Mar-23 2,874 2,876 2,854 2,873 2,871 2,867 -4 296,631 751,365
May-23 2,872 2,872 2,854 2,867 2,868 2,864 -4 80,563 386,058
Jul-23 2,840 2,846 2,827 2,841 2,841 2,836 -5 40,255 338,200
Sep-23 2,825 2,831 2,816 2,828 2,827 2,824 -3 4,570 52,040
Nov-23 2,805 2,811 2,792 2,808 2,804 2,802 -2 30,438 86,345
Soymeal
Turnover: 773,580 lots, or 29.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 4,580 4,610 4,580 4,610 4,554 4,590 36 60 5,460
Mar-23 4,100 4,149 4,096 4,149 4,117 4,120 3 82,045 282,856
May-23 3,781 3,822 3,769 3,820 3,785 3,796 11 528,153 1,267,663
Jul-23 3,758 3,790 3,741 3,789 3,760 3,765 5 29,439 131,522
Aug-23 3,806 3,845 3,798 3,843 3,811 3,823 12 28,640 83,516
Sep-23 3,777 3,816 3,766 3,813 3,777 3,794 17 75,581 187,268
Nov-23 3,727 3,768 3,719 3,767 3,732 3,746 14 23,376 34,103
Dec-23 3,709 3,753 3,701 3,752 3,717 3,726 9 6,286 16,929
Palm Oil
Turnover: 718,722 lots, or 56.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 7,650 7,650 7,480 7,480 7,762 7,484 -278 55 4,255
Feb-23 7,730 7,730 7,612 7,654 7,800 7,682 -118 7,315 36,286
Mar-23 7,770 7,778 7,658 7,708 7,836 7,720 -116 24,468 84,415
Apr-23 7,798 7,828 7,702 7,766 7,886 7,764 -122 9,450 56,668
May-23 7,824 7,854 7,730 7,794 7,896 7,798 -98 657,078 485,891
Jun-23 7,800 7,842 7,726 7,782 7,880 7,778 -102 7,015 33,660
Jul-23 7,808 7,844 7,732 7,782 7,884 7,784 -100 5,426 20,862
Aug-23 7,810 7,838 7,728 7,784 7,852 7,776 -76 1,309 12,594
Sep-23 7,852 7,852 7,726 7,792 7,882 7,790 -92 6,565 11,325
Oct-23 – – – 7,830 7,830 7,830 0 0 36
Nov-23 7,784 7,820 7,716 7,750 7,798 7,764 -34 22 165
Dec-23 7,768 7,788 7,736 7,764 7,826 7,756 -70 19 42
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 447,799 lots, or 38.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 – – – 9,160 9,160 9,160 0 0 664
Mar-23 8,832 8,836 8,752 8,784 8,840 8,796 -44 15,862 67,359
May-23 8,522 8,556 8,474 8,510 8,540 8,514 -26 398,349 442,069
Jul-23 8,472 8,494 8,430 8,464 8,472 8,458 -14 5,669 53,665
Aug-23 8,444 8,470 8,402 8,436 8,438 8,434 -4 7,013 27,541
Sep-23 8,410 8,432 8,360 8,386 8,414 8,392 -22 13,856 27,256
Nov-23 8,380 8,396 8,330 8,362 8,366 8,362 -4 5,027 12,517
Dec-23 8,402 8,426 8,358 8,392 8,408 8,384 -24 2,023 3,339
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322