Softs Report 01/05/2023

DJ U.S. November Coffee, Cocoa Imports-January 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2022—- —-Oct 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 92,449,114 203,850,296 122,575,025 270,277,930
coffee, roasted 8,479,280 18,696,812 9,996,551 22,042,395
coffee, soluble
instant 4,781,242 10,542,639 5,472,288 12,066,395
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 12,814,418 28,255,792 17,064,661 37,627,578
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 3,038,337 6,699,533 2,550,155 5,623,092
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 13,033,753 28,739,425 10,969,657 24,188,094
cocoa paste,
not defatted 8,819,981 19,448,058 8,182,003 18,041,317
cocoa paste
defatted 7,383,977 16,281,669 7,828,870 17,262,658
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 10,696,694 23,586,210 11,360,739 25,050,429
cocoa powder,
sweetened 117,174 258,369 19,697 43,432
confectioners
coating 4,828,901 10,647,727 5,313,401 11,716,049
candy containing
chocolate 13,078,276 28,837,599 13,796,687 30,421,695

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday as ideas of weak demand continue to be heard. Futures have been stuck in the same trading range since the beginning of November. The weekly export sales report showed improved sales but overall the demand for US Cotton has not been strong. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months were hurt by news of Covid outbreaks in China. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed. The people there do not trust the government vaccines. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices and a lower US Dollar to date. Production in the US is very short.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,901 bales, from 8,901 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7980 and 7640 March. Support is at 79.80, 78.80, and 77.50 March, with resistance of 85.80, 87.40 and 89.60 March.

DJ U.S. Nov Cotton Exports-Jan 4
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 22 Oct 22 Sep 22 Nov 21
Upland, under 1 inch 3,272,164 3,464,228 9,354,662 1,971,337
1 to 1 1/8 inch 62,024,752 54,332,733 93,898,378 32,041,255
upland 1 1/8 and over 3,191,965 723,382 392,468 5,107,573
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 97,532,862 63,156,514 165,191,093 64,822,321
All cotton 166,021,743 121,676,857 268,836,601 103,942,486
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Nov 22 Oct 22 Sep 22 Nov 21
Upland, under 1 inch 15,029 15,911 42,966 9,054
1 to 1 1/8 inch 284,877 249,548 431,272 147,164
upland 1 1/8 and over 14,661 3,322 1,803 23,459
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 447,965 290,076 758,716 297,726
All cotton 762,532 558,857 1,234,756 477,404

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday in range trading, with worries still around about freeze damage to crops this weekend from freezing temperatures. Demand should start to improve now with the holidays now over. Futures look weak on the daily charts. The supply situation in the US and in the world market looks very tight. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 194.00, and 192.00 March, with resistance at 206.00, 209.00, and 214.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher again yesterday as the Brazilian Real moved lower against the US Dollar and encouraged selling from Brazil producers. Producers remain quiet in Vietnam and most of Latin America but should be more active this week as sellers and buyers are in the new year. Vietnamese sellers should become more active in the next couple of weeks as they ty to get sales on the books before the Tet holiday. Buying interest is also reduced, but ideas are that the buy side needs Coffee now. Buyers are expected to look for Coffee at origin starting this week. Ideas of reduced Brazil production and reports of reduced offers into the cash market from Brazil and Vietnam continue, but the weather is good in Brazil and improving in Vietnam. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affected the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.813 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 154.60 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 153.00 and 141.00 March. Support is at 157.00, 154.00, and 151.00 March, and resistance is at 166.00, 169.00 and 175.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1780 March, and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday. Ideas are that mills will be encouraged to produce more Sugar than Ethanol. These ideas were enhanced by news that Brazil president Lula has frozen fuel taxes at current levels, giving Ethanol producers a reason to switch to Sugar as profit margins could be squeezed by the tax moves. The harvest has been delayed in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also delayed. India is producing White Sugar mostly from Raws imported from Brazil, so the market is thought to be short Raw Sugar. There is talk that production in India will be reduced this year after some bad weather and reduced yields reported in Maharashtra. Reports indicate that Indian mills have produced 30% more Sugar than last year until now for the current marketing year. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop but bad for harvest and loading at ports as it is still raining in production areas. World Sugar is expected to be in a big surplus production next year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1930, 1930, and 1790 March. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1910 March and resistance is at 1980, 2010, and 2050 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 540.00, 527.00, and 522.00 March. Support is at 541.00, 531.00, and 522.00 March and resistance is at 556.00, 565.00, and 568.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Ivory coast arrivals are now 1.172 million tons, up 14% from last year. The Ivory Coast Cocoa grind is now 113,803 tons, up 6.9% from last year. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Nigeria is reporting that Harmattan winds have arrived, but no significant effects are reported for now. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.864 mi0lion bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2520 March, with resistance at 2620, 2670, and 2700 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2020, 2000, and 1980 March, with resistance at 2070, 2090, and 2120 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322