Grains Report 01/05/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 06, 2023 4 Dec 30, 2022
ROUGH RICE January Jan 06, 2023 8 Dec 27, 2022
SOYBEAN January Jan 06, 2023 69 Dec 21, 2022

DJ U.S. Nov Grain Exports-Jan 4
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 22 Oct 22 Sep 22 Nov 21
Barley 2,970,402 2,127,000 1,805,948 622,176
Corn /1 2,427,048,000 2,077,065,000 2,630,393,000 4,631,006,000
Sorghum 143,406,000 147,838,000 116,058,000 602,326,000
Oats 3,316,559 2,044,203 3,283,580 3,589,714
Rye 91,913 109,000 21,902 20,000
Wheat /1 1,350,985,771 1,383,910,244 3,048,958,205 1,447,834,497
wheat flour /1 15,180,668 16,998,303 17,840,873 20,188,791
Malt 22,453,530 26,287,945 27,045,172 34,600,221
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Nov 22 Oct 22 Sep 22 Nov 21
Barley 136,428 97,691 82,946 28,576
Corn /1 95,547,679 81,769,598 103,552,935 182,312,782
Sorghum 5,645,587 5,820,065 4,568,955 23,712,284
Oats 228,490 140,833 226,218 247,309
Rye 3,618 4,291 862 787
Wheat /1 49,639,720 50,849,475 112,028,887 53,198,265
wheat flour /1 334,676 374,748 393,324 445,087
Malt 49,501,569 57,955,008 59,624,408 76,280,443

DJ U.S. Nov Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jan 5
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 22 Oct 22 Sep 22 Nov 21
soybeans 9,667,742,693 9,780,966,637 2,122,976,204 10,635,967,547
soyoil 10,777,383 10,516,759 20,501,383 115,371,390
crude 1,131,930 1,536,300 10,440,136 105,017,038
refined 195,046 78,502 141,507 206,852
other/1 9,359,577 8,701,358 9,779,468 9,907,663
hydrogenated 90,830 200,599 140,272 239,837
cottonseed oil 2,824,974 3,269,146 4,376,424 5,904,164
crude 0 0 299,562 154,753
refined 1,649,712 2,619,317 3,294,965 4,975,952
other/1 675,137 282,734 625,124 373,820
hydrogenated 500,125 367,095 156,773 399,639
sunseeds 162,125 1,382,849 1,493,636 345,037
sunseed oil 5,406,319 3,324,137 6,551,174 3,744,919
rapeseed 17,653,239 27,577,427 16,005,614 7,000,086
rapeseed oil 6,264,815 10,948,777 7,052,063 10,922,873
crude 1,812,516 6,140,408 1,885,879 3,017,838
refined 4,452,299 4,808,369 5,166,184 7,905,035
linseed meal 62,000 52,000 81,100 272,363
cottonseed meal 2,170,958 2,210,943 3,624,562 2,596,223
soymeal 879,547,408 665,828,282 604,592,808 1,013,737,487
soymeal/flour 254,200,415 188,459,201 203,780,401 186,151,201
soymeal hulls 2,170,000 16,479,000 9,163,000 4,271,000
lard 2,035,930 1,750,065 1,807,852 18,603,388
edible tallow 4,915,470 2,246,351 2,970,327 9,408,484
inedible tallow 23,580,765 27,360,035 24,341,517 12,221,186
ch white grease 12,440 0 78,448 11,951
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Nov 22 Oct 22 Sep 22 Nov 21
soybeans 355,225,089 359,385,314 78,005,222 390,800,897
soyoil 23,760,066 23,185,489 45,197,820 254,350,420
crude 2,495,479 3,386,962 23,016,564 231,522,977
refined 430,003 173,067 311,970 456,031
other/1 20,634,339 19,183,214 21,560,040 21,842,662
hydrogenated 200,246 442,245 309,247 528,750
cottonseed oil 6,228,003 7,207,234 9,648,365 13,016,456
crude 0 0 660,421 341,172
refined 3,636,993 5,774,607 7,264,156 10,970,098
other/1 1,488,423 623,322 1,378,163 824,132
hydrogenated 1,102,587 809,306 345,625 881,053
sunseeds 357,425 3,048,661 3,292,904 760,677
sunseed oil 11,918,895 7,328,469 14,442,869 8,256,135
rapeseed 38,918,737 60,797,830 35,286,345 15,432,551
rapeseed oil 13,811,555 24,137,926 15,547,140 24,080,817
crude 3,995,914 13,537,285 4,157,652 6,653,195
refined 9,815,641 10,600,641 11,389,488 17,427,622
linseed meal 68 57 89 300
cottonseed meal 2,393 2,437 3,995 2,862
soymeal 969,525 733,943 666,443 1,117,443
soymeal flour/me 280,205 207,739 224,627 205,194
soymeal hulls 2,392 18,165 10,100 4,708
lard 4,488,458 3,858,234 3,985,632 41,013,457
edible tallow 10,836,758 4,952,357 6,548,451 20,742,160
inedible tallow 51,986,697 60,318,562 53,663,868 26,943,108
ch white grease 27,426 0 172,948 26,347

DJ U.S. November Grain Imports-January 5
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2022—- —-Oct 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 1,739,860 3,836,391 99,821 220,105
spring wheat 299,376 660,124 131,542 290,050
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 2,039,236 4,496,515 231,363 510,155
barley 25,107,886 55,362,889 7,748,654 17,085,782
oats 154,705 341,125 182,351 402,084
corn 65,504,056 144,436,443 34,958,718 77,083,973
other corn 6,970,230 15,369,357 2,290,467 5,050,480
TOTAL CORN 72,474,286 159,805,801 37,249,185 82,134,453

DJ U.S. Nov Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-January 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2022—- —-Oct 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 46,283,010 102,054,037 43,729,604 96,423,777
palm kernel oil 27,883,591 61,483,318 51,573,299 113,719,124
palm oil 159,671,882 352,076,500 235,830,855 520,007,035
soybean 34,311,442 75,656,730 33,177,066 73,155,431
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 11,744,483 25,896,585 13,492,683 29,751,366
rapeseed oil
edible 196,449,871 433,171,966 202,843,707 447,270,374
rapeseed oil,
inedible 38 84 120,039 264,686

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on what appeared to be fund selling. USDA said that US Wheat is now just 19% good to excellent in its monthly update on conditions. Damage from extreme cold was done two weeks ago to an already damaged HRW crop. The cold weather could have produced some Winterkill in US production areas to make a small crop even smaller. Temperatures were very cold and blizzard conditions were reported farther north due to high winds blowing the snow and probably the ground into the atmosphere. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and was hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures but this could now change due to the moves by the insurers.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 737 and 704 March, Support is at 738, 731, and 7524 March, with resistance at 766, 772, and 784 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 829 and 796 March. Support is at 822, 817, and 801 March, with resistance at 861, 876, and 895 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 887 and 859 March. Support is at 901, 888, and 882 March, and resistance is at 915, 938, and 942 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower on what appeared to be fund and commercial selling. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses. Congress included support payments of two cents per pound for Rice producers in its financing bill for the next year and the bill should be signed by President Biden. At least some traders expect more selling interest to show up this week. Demand ideas got a boost when Iraq bought 104,000 tons of Rice in the last week or so.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1758 March. Support is at 1765, 1750, and 1735 March and resistance is at 1791, 1800, and 1832 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower again yesterday ideas of less demand and the potential for USDA to raise ending stocks estimates in the next WASDE reports. Producers in the US are not selling as many are waiting for a rally to sell into. Demand for US Corn remains muted and forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen. Brazil has been hanging on but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought.. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. South American prices are currently close to or above than those in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 642, 636, and 632 March. Support is at 651, 647, and 644 March, and resistance is at 660, 667, and 674 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 342 and 312 March. Support is at 350, 3644, and 337 March, and resistance is at 363, 368, and 377 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower again yesterday on what appeared to be fund selling. Farmers are not selling many Soybeans in the US as many are waiting for a rally to sell into. Significant rains were reported in some provinces in Argentina last weekend, but this week and next week looks dry for all of Argentina and for southern Brazil. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country. Export demand for the US is improved from previous weeks but the pace is still behind what is needed to meet USDA projections.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1468 March. Support is at 1481, 1472, and 1468 March, and resistance is at 1514, 1521, and 1528 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 444.00, and 435.00 March, and resistance is at 469.00, 476.00, and 478.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6190 and 5930 March. Support is at 6150, 6120, and 6010 March, with resistance at 6450, 6520, and 6670 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower again today as demand ideas remain uncertain. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. There are still reports of too much rain in Ma;laysia. Canola was a little lower in range trading and in sympathy with weakness in Chicago. Ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 856.00, 845.00, and 838.00 March, with resistance at 881.00, 889.00, and 894.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4290 March. Support is at 4100, 4000, and 3980 March, with resistance at 4370, 4360, and 4390 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January
135 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
165 Jan

February
123 Mar
175 Mar
135 Mar
142 Mar

March
112 Mar
165 Mar
135 Mar
127 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 868.25 0.55 Jan 2023 dn 9.30
Track Thunder Bay 901.60 30.00 Mar 2023 up 5.80
Track Vancouver 926.60 55.00 Mar 2023 up 5.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 950.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 972.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 960.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 945.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 740.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4080.00 -120.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 246.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.384)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 105,205 lots, or 5.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,240 5,240 5,240 5,240 5,240 5,240 0 6 235
Mar-23 5,235 5,242 5,213 5,221 5,248 5,223 -25 9,510 37,017
May-23 5,213 5,213 5,143 5,175 5,205 5,170 -35 83,276 158,245
Jul-23 5,201 5,201 5,144 5,172 5,195 5,166 -29 5,878 24,164
Sep-23 5,200 5,201 5,155 5,177 5,199 5,172 -27 3,590 15,695
Nov-23 5,201 5,204 5,170 5,194 5,205 5,184 -21 2,945 14,006
Corn
Turnover: 580,525 lots, or 1.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,832 2,837 2,832 2,837 2,832 2,832 0 794 7,836
Mar-23 2,875 2,882 2,859 2,878 2,863 2,872 9 341,944 714,472
May-23 2,871 2,877 2,856 2,874 2,860 2,870 10 124,073 363,435
Jul-23 2,847 2,865 2,843 2,854 2,841 2,852 11 55,578 322,237
Sep-23 2,840 2,844 2,824 2,833 2,827 2,834 7 8,292 47,632
Nov-23 2,812 2,819 2,801 2,810 2,808 2,812 4 49,844 75,739
Soymeal
Turnover: 817,434 lots, or 31.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 4,600 4,600 4,526 4,530 4,606 4,556 -50 932 7,692
Mar-23 4,233 4,242 4,165 4,169 4,261 4,199 -62 78,360 294,527
May-23 3,861 3,874 3,817 3,831 3,890 3,843 -47 621,266 1,325,561
Jul-23 3,839 3,839 3,786 3,798 3,867 3,816 -51 19,400 129,881
Aug-23 3,865 3,880 3,715 3,841 3,920 3,850 -70 24,944 82,624
Sep-23 3,845 3,848 3,798 3,810 3,863 3,819 -44 52,350 127,748
Nov-23 3,804 3,804 3,749 3,760 3,825 3,768 -57 14,397 31,023
Dec-23 3,781 3,784 3,735 3,750 3,805 3,757 -48 5,785 14,668
Palm Oil
Turnover: 906,220 lots, or 73.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 7,888 7,950 7,826 7,826 7,718 7,892 174 33 4,310
Feb-23 8,058 8,064 7,918 7,980 8,078 7,994 -84 22,022 52,142
Mar-23 8,108 8,132 7,984 8,056 8,140 8,058 -82 18,692 79,979
Apr-23 8,160 8,186 8,042 8,106 8,212 8,120 -92 10,381 50,644
May-23 8,180 8,210 8,050 8,120 8,236 8,132 -104 827,500 441,587
Jun-23 8,196 8,196 8,036 8,096 8,228 8,112 -116 8,709 29,309
Jul-23 8,146 8,180 8,030 8,082 8,218 8,108 -110 6,522 19,440
Aug-23 8,102 8,156 8,010 8,052 8,180 8,080 -100 3,936 11,507
Sep-23 8,128 8,150 7,998 8,054 8,172 8,070 -102 8,383 6,953
Oct-23 8,048 8,048 8,048 8,048 8,136 8,048 -88 1 36
Nov-23 8,002 8,024 7,950 7,984 8,060 8,000 -60 31 155
Dec-23 7,998 8,014 7,944 7,980 8,096 7,986 -110 10 19
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 576,434 lots, or 50.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 9,160 9,160 9,160 9,160 9,188 9,160 -28 47 2,618
Mar-23 9,034 9,042 8,924 9,012 9,068 8,990 -78 22,402 66,259
May-23 8,766 8,782 8,654 8,742 8,822 8,732 -90 529,921 456,091
Jul-23 8,738 8,738 8,608 8,684 8,772 8,682 -90 4,820 49,227
Aug-23 8,722 8,722 8,582 8,660 8,736 8,660 -76 3,838 26,975
Sep-23 8,650 8,660 8,542 8,620 8,686 8,610 -76 7,213 17,971
Nov-23 8,590 8,590 8,452 8,550 8,596 8,536 -60 6,593 10,947
Dec-23 8,618 8,618 8,496 8,564 8,618 8,552 -66 1,600 3,031
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322