Grains Report 01/04/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 3
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue Jan 03, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 29, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/29/2022 12/22/2022 12/30/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,855 10,010
CORN 667,010 922,142 759,563 9,584,257 13,066,487
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 224
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 300
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 2,754 43,164 1,951 406,892 1,729,339
SOYBEANS 1,462,882 1,774,899 1,616,018 28,617,907 30,794,290
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,160 432
WHEAT 85,672 313,707 230,361 11,839,979 12,200,420
Total 2,218,318 3,053,912 2,607,893 50,459,736 57,801,502
————————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 05, 2023 20 Dec 28, 2022
ROUGH RICE January Jan 05, 2023 30 Dec 27, 2022
SOYBEAN January Jan 05, 2023 16 Oct 25, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on a stronger US Dollar. The Dollar rallied over one cent. USDA said that US Wheat is now just 19% good to excellent in its monthly update on conditions. Damage from extreme cold was done two weeks ago to an already damaged HRW crop. The cold weather could have produced some Winterkill in US production areas to make a small crop even smaller. Temperatures were very cold and blizzard conditions were reported farther north due to high winds blowing the snow and probably the ground into the atmosphere. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and was hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures but this could now change due to the moves by the insurers.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed, Support is at 770, 767, and 758 March, with resistance at 799, 809, and 8013 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 861, 859, and 841 March, with resistance at 895, 901, and 915 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 912, 901, and 888 March, and resistance is at 942, 946, and 957 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was near unchanged and trends are still mixed on the daily and weekly charts. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involved in other pursuits such as hunting. The weekly export sales report showed stronger sales and included sales of 60,000 tons to Iraq. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses. Congress included support payments of two cents per pound for Rice producers in its financing bill for the next year and the bill should be signed by President Biden. At least some traders expect selling interest to show up this week in response to the support payments as farmers could become more willing sellers of cash Rice. Demand ideas got a boost when Iraq bought 104,000 tons of Rice in the last week or so.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1819, 1813, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1848, 1853, and 1864 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday ideas of less demand and the potential for USDA to raise ending stocks estimates in the next WASDE reports. The US Dollar rallied one cent to make US Corn more expensive in the world market. Producers in the US are not selling as many are waiting for the next tax year to start this week before making sales. Demand for US Corn remains muted and forecasts for only light rains or dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen. Brazil has been hanging on but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought.. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. South American prices are currently close to or above than those in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 667, 660 and 656 March, and resistance is at 677, 685, and 693 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 363, 360, and 344 March, and resistance is at 368, 377, and 380 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday as the US Dollar rallied one cent. Farmers are not selling many Soybeans in the US as many are waiting for the new tax year to start this week before making any new sales. Significant rains were reported in some provinces in Argentina last weekend, but this week looks dry for all of Argentina and for southern Brazil. Drier weather is the forecast for this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could stress crops in both areas again, Central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve, but this could take some time as a very large part of the population now has Covid. This has delayed a robust economic return for the country. Export demand for the US is improved from previous weeks but the pace is still behind what is needed to meet USDA projections.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 124,000 tons of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1497, 1488, and 1481 March, and resistance is at 1521, 1528, and 1534 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 444.00, and 435.00 March, and resistance is at 469.00, 476.00, and 478.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6310, 6150, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6520, 6670, and 6790 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today as news that Indonesia will keep Palm Oil at home and reports of more rains at harvest time in Malaysia is now part of the price. Demand ideas remain uncertain. Indonesia will now permit exporters to sell six tons for every tons sold internally instead of eight as before. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher in range trading as the US Dollar was very strong. Ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 898.00 and 930.00 March. Support is at 856.00, 845.00, and 838.00 March, with resistance at 881.00, 889.00, and 894.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4290 March. Support is at 4100, 4000, and 3980 March, with resistance at 4360, 4390, and 4500 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January
135 Mar
180 Mar
135 Mar
165 Jan

February
123 Mar
175 Mar
135 Mar
142 Mar

March
112 Mar
165 Mar
135 Mar
127 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 868.25 0.55 Jan 2023 dn 9.30
Track Thunder Bay 901.60 30.00 Mar 2023 up 5.80
Track Vancouver 926.60 55.00 Mar 2023 up 5.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 970.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 970.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 970.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 980.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 980.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 980.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 980.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 980.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 960.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 760.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4200.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 249.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.399)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,386 lots, or .71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,240 5,240 5,240 5,240 5,251 5,240 -11 10 240
Mar-23 5,268 5,268 5,225 5,237 5,274 5,248 -26 15,555 38,020
May-23 5,227 5,228 5,171 5,206 5,222 5,205 -17 106,864 149,090
Jul-23 5,215 5,215 5,168 5,200 5,212 5,195 -17 7,565 22,557
Sep-23 5,204 5,218 5,173 5,205 5,204 5,199 -5 3,576 13,893
Nov-23 5,218 5,224 5,180 5,216 5,218 5,205 -13 2,816 12,805
Corn
Turnover: 764,920 lots, or 2.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,830 2,849 2,830 2,849 2,810 2,832 22 1,877 7,902
Mar-23 2,840 2,877 2,838 2,875 2,830 2,863 33 489,218 711,148
May-23 2,844 2,870 2,844 2,869 2,835 2,860 25 167,292 372,753
Jul-23 2,819 2,854 2,819 2,854 2,816 2,841 25 68,826 317,432
Sep-23 2,810 2,836 2,810 2,836 2,803 2,827 24 7,760 45,750
Nov-23 2,798 2,815 2,797 2,812 2,791 2,808 17 29,947 72,825
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,147,590 lots, or 4.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 4,500 4,794 4,500 4,569 4,636 4,606 -30 2,395 8,211
Mar-23 4,311 4,311 4,224 4,235 4,293 4,261 -32 121,239 285,387
May-23 3,943 3,951 3,856 3,866 3,942 3,890 -52 871,802 1,358,840
Jul-23 3,908 3,913 3,824 3,829 3,902 3,867 -35 35,345 128,401
Aug-23 3,970 3,970 3,868 3,876 3,950 3,920 -30 31,590 79,834
Sep-23 3,914 3,923 3,833 3,846 3,914 3,863 -51 56,831 120,420
Nov-23 3,863 3,869 3,784 3,795 3,858 3,825 -33 17,112 30,388
Dec-23 3,852 3,858 3,772 3,788 3,852 3,805 -47 11,276 13,433
Palm Oil
Turnover: 640,611 lots, or 5.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 7,554 7,954 7,472 7,954 7,948 7,718 -230 10 4,313
Feb-23 8,074 8,138 8,010 8,084 8,074 8,078 4 18,491 56,349
Mar-23 8,174 8,200 8,068 8,148 8,134 8,140 6 13,498 78,778
Apr-23 8,204 8,274 8,150 8,208 8,202 8,212 10 7,302 50,213
May-23 8,280 8,310 8,170 8,228 8,224 8,236 12 582,314 441,316
Jun-23 8,256 8,294 8,168 8,216 8,188 8,228 40 4,571 27,996
Jul-23 8,246 8,276 8,158 8,202 8,176 8,218 42 5,481 18,777
Aug-23 8,210 8,240 8,122 8,176 8,158 8,180 22 4,361 11,023
Sep-23 8,192 8,228 8,120 8,168 8,154 8,172 18 4,549 5,718
Oct-23 8,148 8,148 8,132 8,132 8,130 8,136 6 3 37
Nov-23 8,056 8,104 8,054 8,054 8,056 8,060 4 27 165
Dec-23 8,112 8,112 8,074 8,092 8,098 8,096 -2 4 20
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 456,256 lots, or 40.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 9,142 9,230 9,132 9,206 9,126 9,188 62 179 2,665
Mar-23 9,082 9,140 9,000 9,064 9,064 9,068 4 15,929 66,102
May-23 8,894 8,912 8,756 8,808 8,844 8,822 -22 416,759 461,946
Jul-23 8,786 8,850 8,656 8,742 8,750 8,772 22 3,780 49,582
Aug-23 8,798 8,824 8,652 8,718 8,736 8,736 0 3,034 27,071
Sep-23 8,732 8,780 8,622 8,676 8,700 8,686 -14 6,814 16,254
Nov-23 8,664 8,688 8,542 8,588 8,600 8,596 -4 9,381 10,819
Dec-23 8,686 8,706 8,580 8,616 8,614 8,618 4 380 3,150
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322