Grains Report 12/21/2022

DJ DJ Analysts’ Estimates for Dec Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Dec 1 97.1 96.5- 97.6
Placed in Nov 95.7 91.8-98.0
Marketed in Nov 100.9 99.9- 101.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Dec 1 in Nov in Nov
Allegiant Commodity Group 97.0 94.9 101.1
Allendale Inc. 97.6 97.4 99.9
HedgersEdge 96.9 94.4 100.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 97.2 96.8 101.3
Midwest Market Solutions 96.5 94.1 100.5
NFC Markets 96.5 91.8 101.1
Texas A&M Extension 97.5 98.0 101.3
US Commodities 97.5 96.5 101.0
.
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little higher yesterday on forecasts for some extreme cold in US Wheat areas by the end of this week and as fighting escalates in Ukraine. The cold weather could produce some Winterkill in US production areas to make a small crop even smaller. Temperatures will be very cold and blizzard conditions are forecast due to high winds blowing the snow and probably the ground into the atmosphere. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and currently is hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The daily charts for the Chicago markets show mixed trends and demand fundamentals remain bearish. Minneapolis trends are mixed. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered snow. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 738, 731, and 724 March, with resistance at 769, 782, and 799 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 841, 829, and 822 March, with resistance at 860, 879, and 885 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 913, 901, and 894 March, and resistance is at 926, 935, and 957 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher again yesterday and trends remain up on the daily charts and are also up on the weekly charts. The weekly export sales report showed just small net sales. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involved in other pursuits such as hunting. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 850 January. Support is at 1760, 1752, and 1728 January and resistance is at 1785, 1797, and 1800 January.

DJ DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 21
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.21 10.82 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.86 11.21 0.00
Brokens 10.01 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 54.28/14.78 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.31/10.41 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday along with the other markets. Demand for US Corn remains muted and forecasts for only light rains in southern Brazil and Argentina were seen instead of the bigger rains forecast the previous day. Brazil has been hanging on but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought.. Corn prices are still hurt by a general lack of demand. Corn is still finding some support on a lack of farmer selling. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. South American prices are currently cheaper than those in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 644, 635, and 624 March, and resistance is at 656, 660, and 668 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 323 and 312 March. Support is at 330, 328, and 326 March, and resistance is at 338, 345, and 347 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher. Drier weather is no in the forecast this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could really stress crops in both areas and central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong even with potential problems and losses in the south. Argentine production ideas continue to drop with the drought as planting is delayed and the crops already in the ground are stressed. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve. Export demand for the US is improved. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads are strong and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 1475, 1460, and 1454 January, and resistance is at 1487, 1493, and 1512 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 435.00 and 415.00 January. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 433.00 January, and resistance is at 457.00 465.00, and 474.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6730 January. Support is at 6470, 6400, and 6200 January, with resistance at 6700, 6710, and 6860 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again yesterday on worries about supply as demand seemed to be mostly quiet. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported but export demand overall has improved lately, especially from India. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher along with Chicago and Malaysia. Ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 828.00 and 798.00 January. Support is at 844.00, 833.00, and 819.00 January, with resistance at 8573.00, 887.00, and 894.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3850, 3790, and 3750 March, with resistance at 3990, 4020, and 4040 March.

DJ DJ Malaysia December 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Down 2.1%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the December 1-20 period are estimated down 2.1% on month at 923,642 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday. \
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
December 1-20 November 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 188,653 228,020
RBD Palm Oil 56,370 55,141
RBD Palm Stearin 68,590 93,846
Crude Palm Oil 300,940 281,130
Total* 923,642 943,030
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 134 Mar 180 Dec 155 Dec 155 Jan

January 137 Mar 182 Mar 155 Mar 175 Jan
February 125 Mar 175 Mar 150 Mar 1462 Mar

DJ DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 850.15 -13.50 Jan 2023 dn 11.10
Track Thunder Bay 884.20 30.00 Mar 2023 up 8.30
Track Vancouver 909.20 55.00 Mar 2023 up 8.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 935.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 940.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
March 945.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 945.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 945.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 950.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
March 955.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 955.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 895.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 760.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3980.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 242.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.434)

DJ DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 160,411 lots, or 8.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,483 5,496 5,444 5,482 5,484 5,480 -4 6,038 7,578
Mar-23 5,305 5,337 5,263 5,302 5,317 5,306 -11 21,504 40,075
May-23 5,232 5,232 5,154 5,220 5,212 5,201 -11 119,516 161,246
Jul-23 5,194 5,211 5,143 5,207 5,193 5,179 -14 5,799 16,895
Sep-23 5,198 5,206 5,144 5,201 5,191 5,181 -10 4,612 16,167
Nov-23 5,213 5,334 5,154 5,204 5,206 5,190 -16 2,942 13,655
Corn
Turnover: 768,647 lots, or 21.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,805 2,808 2,769 2,791 2,819 2,786 -33 22,117 68,663
Mar-23 2,761 2,761 2,726 2,745 2,780 2,742 -38 439,976 782,844
May-23 2,785 2,785 2,753 2,771 2,794 2,767 -27 158,324 410,983
Jul-23 2,778 2,778 2,750 2,763 2,793 2,762 -31 70,141 286,248
Sep-23 2,772 2,774 2,749 2,759 2,793 2,760 -33 9,917 43,744
Nov-23 2,775 2,775 2,736 2,742 2,782 2,747 -35 68,172 62,999
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,035,155 lots, or 40.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 4,312 4,352 4,308 4,350 4,287 4,334 47 181,405 318,373
Mar-23 3,992 4,036 3,992 4,034 3,978 4,019 41 56,102 280,937
May-23 3,719 3,778 3,718 3,758 3,706 3,755 49 693,989 1,098,947
Jul-23 3,685 3,739 3,685 3,723 3,677 3,719 42 25,725 128,517
Aug-23 3,739 3,788 3,733 3,779 3,726 3,771 45 26,450 79,761
Sep-23 3,708 3,757 3,703 3,747 3,701 3,740 39 36,153 95,771
Nov-23 3,658 3,691 3,648 3,679 3,638 3,677 39 12,768 29,940
Dec-23 3,652 3,671 3,529 3,661 3,624 3,655 31 2,563 8,256
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,033,337 lots, or 80.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 7,624 7,672 7,482 7,660 7,624 7,582 -42 63,939 70,520
Feb-23 7,632 7,706 7,538 7,692 7,666 7,626 -40 16,258 82,045
Mar-23 7,704 7,790 7,612 7,780 7,740 7,702 -38 11,712 78,202
Apr-23 7,736 7,852 7,638 7,832 7,794 7,740 -54 8,120 49,616
May-23 7,726 7,858 7,642 7,846 7,798 7,756 -42 912,393 438,535
Jun-23 7,708 7,850 7,650 7,844 7,786 7,752 -34 10,340 26,808
Jul-23 7,756 7,868 7,658 7,844 7,788 7,772 -16 4,301 17,924
Aug-23 7,752 7,830 7,654 7,822 7,768 7,760 -8 4,825 11,374
Sep-23 7,700 7,816 7,662 7,802 7,758 7,746 -12 1,363 2,759
Oct-23 7,744 7,752 7,672 7,674 7,744 7,704 -40 28 57
Nov-23 7,734 7,752 7,640 7,732 7,734 7,700 -34 55 173
Dec-23 7,676 7,688 7,676 7,688 7,788 7,680 -108 3 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 627,614 lots, or 53.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 8,766 8,806 8,700 8,788 8,840 8,756 -84 59,011 66,405
Mar-23 8,664 8,694 8,580 8,674 8,696 8,638 -58 15,067 77,457
May-23 8,444 8,516 8,368 8,502 8,480 8,442 -38 531,001 450,383
Jul-23 8,400 8,450 8,328 8,448 8,420 8,376 -44 5,458 52,282
Aug-23 8,342 8,428 8,308 8,424 8,386 8,366 -20 2,991 28,672
Sep-23 8,292 8,382 8,258 8,380 8,332 8,316 -16 6,520 12,848
Nov-23 8,226 8,308 8,204 8,304 8,288 8,252 -36 7,177 9,447
Dec-23 8,238 8,294 8,196 8,288 8,266 8,242 -24 389 2,643
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322