Grains Report 12/20/2022

DJ DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 19
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Dec 19, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 15, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/15/2022 12/08/2022 12/16/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,708 10,010
CORN 743,420 517,417 1,002,287 7,902,389 11,352,436
FLAXSEED 0 0 100 200 224
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 300
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 3,953 4,168 317,339 360,974 1,552,003
SOYBEANS 1,619,850 1,878,278 1,909,031 25,036,140 27,426,919
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,160 432
WHEAT 304,108 219,358 233,747 11,440,600 11,655,557
Total 2,671,331 2,619,221 3,462,504 44,750,657 51,997,881
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed yesterday on forecasts for some extreme cold in US Wheat areas by the end of this week and as fighting escalates in Ukraine. The cold weather could produce some Winterkill in US production areas to make a small crop even smaller. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and currently is hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The daily charts for the Chicago markets show mixed trends and demand fundamentals remain bearish. Minneapolis trends are mixed. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still not enough demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get snow in northern areas. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 738, 731, and 724 March, with resistance at 769, 782, and 799 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 829, 822, and 817 March, with resistance at 860, 879, and 885 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 901, 894, and 888 March, and resistance is at 926, 935, and 937 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday as futures broke out to the up side on the daily charts. The weekly export sales report showed just small net sales. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involved in other pursuits such as hunting. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1687, 1673, and 1667 January and resistance is at 1728, 1753, and 1760 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday as demand for US Corn remains muted and on forecasts for beneficial rains in southern Brazil and Argentina. Brazil has been hanging on but Argentina has suffered through some extreme drought.. Corn prices are still hurt by a general lack of demand. Corn is still finding some support on a lack of farmer selling. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. South American prices are currently cheaper than those in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 642, 636, and 634 March. Support is at 635, 6324, and 612 March, and resistance is at 650, 656, and 660 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 323 and 312 March. Support is at 328, 326, and 320 March, and resistance is at 338, 345, and 347 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday and Soybean oil was higher. Wetter weather is forecast this week for southern Brazil and Argentina that could really help out crops in both areas and central and northern Brazil remain in very good condition with scattered showers reported. Production potential for the Brazil is called very strong. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better in central and northern areas. Southern Brazil is hanging on. However, it remains dry in Argentina and the crops and the planting pace are suffering. Export demand for the US is improved. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads are strong and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 1454, 1451, and 1443 January, and resistance is at 1478, 1493, and 1512 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 442.00, 437.00, and 433.00 January, and resistance is at 455.00 465.00, and 474.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6200, 6070, and 6010 January, with resistance at 6470, 6540, and 6570 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little lower last week as demand seemed to be mostly quiet. Ideas of better demand and less production are still around, with production falling due to seasonal factors. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported but export demand overall has improved lately, especially from India. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that the economy can start to function again. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported and infection rates are rapidly increasing. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower. Ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 828.00 and 798.00 January. Support is at 845.00, 833.00, and 819.00 January, with resistance at 857.00, 873.00, and 887.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3790, and 3750 March, with resistance at 4020, 4040, and 4120 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 134 Mar 180 Dec 155 Dec 155 Jan

January 137 Mar 182 Mar 155 Mar 175 Jan
February 125 Mar 175 Mar 150 Mar 1462 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 859.20 -16.00 Jan. 2023 dn 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 908.00 40.00 Jan. 2023 dn 7.20
Basis: Vancouver 926.00 58.00 Jan. 2023 dn 7.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 925.00 — Unquoted – –
Feb 927.50 — Unquoted – –
Mar 927.50 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 930.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 935.00 — Unquoted – –
Feb 937.50 — Unquoted – –
Mar 937.50 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 940.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 880.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 755.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3930.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 237.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4315)

DJ DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 20\
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 119,276 lots, or 6.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,485 5,497 5,458 5,485 5,489 5,484 -5 6,898 11,003
Mar-23 5,359 5,360 5,287 5,316 5,346 5,317 -29 14,538 37,474
May-23 5,250 5,250 5,192 5,216 5,242 5,212 -30 89,056 163,014
Jul-23 5,226 5,226 5,179 5,194 5,230 5,193 -37 3,915 15,796
Sep-23 5,218 5,218 5,178 5,192 5,226 5,191 -35 3,194 16,180
Nov-23 5,217 5,229 5,191 5,206 5,235 5,206 -29 1,675 14,217
Corn
Turnover: 495,069 lots, or 13.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,830 2,839 2,805 2,809 2,845 2,819 -26 27,931 78,426
Mar-23 2,793 2,795 2,759 2,761 2,800 2,780 -20 297,202 783,485
May-23 2,802 2,810 2,779 2,780 2,818 2,794 -24 92,984 380,571
Jul-23 2,804 2,809 2,773 2,774 2,815 2,793 -22 39,959 279,482
Sep-23 2,808 2,808 2,773 2,773 2,814 2,793 -21 3,892 42,084
Nov-23 2,799 2,799 2,762 2,765 2,798 2,782 -16 33,101 62,792
Soymeal
Turnover: 965,802 lots, or 37.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 4,258 4,316 4,258 4,309 4,272 4,287 15 232,351 368,593
Mar-23 3,980 3,999 3,956 3,993 3,983 3,978 -5 60,539 279,327
May-23 3,715 3,727 3,681 3,719 3,724 3,706 -18 591,419 1,052,064
Jul-23 3,690 3,695 3,653 3,686 3,701 3,677 -24 22,576 126,512
Aug-23 3,729 3,740 3,704 3,736 3,744 3,726 -18 23,155 80,911
Sep-23 3,710 3,713 3,678 3,705 3,713 3,701 -12 26,250 94,899
Nov-23 3,645 3,649 3,617 3,642 3,646 3,638 -8 8,004 30,363
Dec-23 3,630 3,632 3,610 3,627 3,636 3,624 -12 1,508 7,327
Palm Oil
Turnover: 962,009 lots, or 74.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 7,688 7,738 7,516 7,558 7,614 7,624 10 82,351 81,823
Feb-23 7,698 7,772 7,574 7,608 7,654 7,666 12 14,899 82,225
Mar-23 7,744 7,852 7,658 7,684 7,730 7,740 10 10,786 77,220
Apr-23 7,776 7,912 7,684 7,720 7,772 7,794 22 6,029 49,426
May-23 7,800 7,928 7,690 7,726 7,778 7,798 20 832,644 447,163
Jun-23 7,752 7,914 7,692 7,728 7,762 7,786 24 6,840 26,750
Jul-23 7,786 7,912 7,694 7,724 7,760 7,788 28 5,053 18,418
Aug-23 7,764 7,892 7,682 7,712 7,764 7,768 4 2,460 12,214
Sep-23 7,776 7,866 7,694 7,720 7,738 7,758 20 919 2,675
Oct-23 7,728 7,804 7,680 7,680 7,730 7,744 14 7 56
Nov-23 7,716 7,790 7,656 7,668 7,686 7,734 48 20 139
Dec-23 7,788 7,788 7,788 7,788 7,668 7,788 120 1 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 608,786 lots, or 51.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 8,896 8,908 8,750 8,750 8,904 8,840 -64 74,219 79,684
Mar-23 8,748 8,772 8,624 8,628 8,748 8,696 -52 17,601 78,219
May-23 8,480 8,558 8,410 8,428 8,486 8,480 -6 498,807 460,668
Jul-23 8,418 8,486 8,350 8,372 8,418 8,420 2 6,260 51,742
Aug-23 8,408 8,450 8,328 8,338 8,394 8,386 -8 2,388 28,969
Sep-23 8,340 8,398 8,276 8,288 8,338 8,332 -6 2,272 10,602
Nov-23 8,328 8,344 8,218 8,226 8,306 8,288 -18 6,574 9,789
Dec-23 8,282 8,322 8,214 8,218 8,282 8,266 -16 665 2,567
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322