Softs Report 11/28/2022

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower Friday in range trading on poor weekly export sales data and also lower for the week as demand has not been real strong so far this year. A weaker US Dollar Index helped support Cotton on ideas that export demand could increase in the nest few weeks. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices and a lower US Dollar to date. China had been making some initial moves to open its economy and country again. China was making moves to shore up the housing sector in the country. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. However, Covid has surged there and the government might need to postpone or delay the moves to open the country again. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.14 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,901 bales, from 8,901 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 5 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7650 and 6920 March. Support is at 79.30, 79.00, and 77.20 March, with resistance of 85.50, 86.00 and 87.10 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 25
As of Nov 19. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 22 3,614 11,909 -8,295 4,194 7,573 -3,379
Mar 23 34,747 28,215 6,532 11,648 9,508 2,140
May 23 10,033 9,765 268 1,363 1,009 354
Jul 23 16,153 15,972 181 1,575 1,511 64
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 7,853 7,692 161 16,328 16,345 -17
Mar 24 494 494 0 0 0 0
May 24 288 288 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 349 349 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 528 440 88 1,594 1,057 537
Mar 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 74,059 75,124 -1,065 36,702 37,003 -301
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 22 5,739 31,373 -25,634
Mar 23 102,249 97,294 4,955
May 23 29,655 27,802 1,853
Jul 23 27,650 28,783 -1,133
Oct 23 3 3 0
Dec 23 21,861 21,365 496
Mar 24 2,574 2,571 3
May 24 474 470 4
Jul 24 759 758 1
Dec 24 1,422 1,370 52
Mar 25 20 20 0
May 25 2 2 0
Total 192,408 211,811 -19,403

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on Friday and for the week. It looks like the market might have completed a short term low and tured trends up on the daily charts. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Brazil told Bloomberg News that US imports of its juice are up 58% for the first four months of the marketing year ad were 112.500 tons in October alone. USDA said that FCOJ in Cold Storage is now 307.857 million pounds, from 353.163 million in September and 551,043 million last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 213.00 and 222.00 January. Support is at 203.00, 199.00, and 195.00 January, with resistance at 212.00, 219.00, and 222.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and for the week last week despite news of much improved growing conditions for Coffee this year in Brazil and in part because of ideas of less than expected production in Brazil this year. The move came with the US Dollar Index moving lower last week. The daily charts show the potential for both markets to bottom out and start to work higher at this time.. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing and the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.557 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 157.38 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 112 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 264 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 170.00 and 178.00 March. Support is at 159.00, 154.00, and 151.00 March, and resistance is at 169.00, 174.00 and 177.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1790, 1770, and 17^0 January, and resistance is at 1860, 1880, and 1900 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/22/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
137,451 82,900 58,880 2,057 2,430 2,668
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 60.3% 42.8% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 46 34 6 8 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,464 35,903 5,714 7,415 2,207 24,418
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 26.1% 4.2% 5.4% 1.6% 17.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 38 17 14 11 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,815 5,231
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 3.8%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower las week, and trends are still mixed in both markets although the charts do indicate that additional price weakness is possible in coming days. It looks like the futures are starting to anticipate an increase in supplies available to the market and offers should increase more from Brazil and India. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market has weighed on prices for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply remains tight for now but supplies are starting to increase. Brazil Sugar offers are increasing on ideas of unprofitable Ethanol prices coming to the country and reports of increased use of Corn for Ethanol production Indian exporters continue selling into the world market. Unica said on Friday that Sugarcane production increased by 109% from last year to 26.3 million tons for the first half of November. Sugar production for the period was 1.7 million tons, an increase of more than 163% and ethanol production was 1.3 billion liters, an increase of 72% from last year. The production mix was 48.45 Sugar and 51.6% Ethanol. The mix was 39.6% Sugar and 60.4% Ethanol last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1880, 1790, and 1720 March. Support is at 1890, 1880, and 1850 March and resistance is at 1980, 2010, and 2040 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 529.00, 520.00, and 512.00 March and resistance is at 538.00, 543.00, and 550.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/22/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
85,263 28,284 67,504 6,433 3,277 2,244
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.2% 79.2% 7.5% 3.8% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
118 28 36 9 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,513 807 3,370 2,117 1,281 3,413
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
38.1% 0.9% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 4.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 2 14 7 7 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,889 3,367
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.1% 3.9%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday but higher for the week. Trends are mixed in both markets for the holidays but both show the chance to work higher in the next few weeks. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 5.505 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 916 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2520 and 2570 March. Support is at 2440, 2420, and 2400 March, with resistance at 2520, 2560, and 2580 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2040 and 2120 March. Support is at 1960, 1930, and 1880 March, with resistance at 2000, 2020, and 2060 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/22/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
384,528 164,797 260,161 30,407 28,546 24,624
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.9% 67.7% 7.9% 7.4% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 49 49 14 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
81,280 5,597 12,857 16,224 1,457 49,788
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.1% 1.5% 3.3% 4.2% 0.4% 12.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 9 20 12 13 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,551 1,498
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322