About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Nov 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 40.196 million pounds, in October, 10.1% above the previous
month, and 246.1% above October 2021, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Oct 31 Sep 30 Oct 31 Sep 30 warehouse
2022 2022 2021 2021 stocks/Oct
pork bellies 40,196 36,513 11,614 12,928
orange juice 307,857 353,163 551,043 614,518
french fries 1,025,149 975,155 948,878 886,512
other potatoes 228,850 224,380 214,108 204,420
chicken rstr (whole) 13,628 14,447 15,324 15,950
ham 121,406 159,488 150,043 194,549
total pork 511,056 536,980 442,370 469,917 454,912
total beef 509,949 526,170 473,763 439,621 498,493
total red meat 1,052,133 1,098,437 947,807 940,334 983,224
total chicken 891,686 873,757 756,165 737,033
total turkey 265,857 391,530 301,999 414,128
total poultry 1,158,835 1,266,582 1,061,148 1,155,090 1,073,983
===============================================================================

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower on follow through selling and on reports of weaker Black Sea prices as Russia and Ukraine look for new business for their crops. The news kept Russian and other world Wheat values on the weaker trend. The weekly charts for all three markets show sideways trends but demand fundamentals remain bearish. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen in the reports last week but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 712 December. Support is at 7986, 783, and 774 December, with resistance at 816, 834, and 843 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 924, 917, and 915 December, with resistance at 945, 975, and 982 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 945, 933, and 929 December, and resistance is at 954 973, and 983 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday and trends remain mixed on the daily charts. Futures failed to move above 1800 January again last week but the weekly charts showed a positive close and the potential to finally get above that strong resistance area. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involve4d in other pursuits. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1752, and 1745 January and resistance is at 1797, 1805, and 1855 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 23
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.00 10.69 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.67 11.08 0.00
Brokens 9.89 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 54.28/14.78 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.31/10.41 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed a little higher yesterday, with Corn weaker on bad demand ideas and on ideas that USDA might have understated production potential for the US crop. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market and USDA was expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving but the improvement for now appears to be short term. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. Other interior basis levels have been strong due to a lack of farm selling. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. South American prices are currently cheaper than those in the US. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 651, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 665, 674 and 677 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 411, 426, and 435 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 376 December, and resistance is at 410, 420, and 428 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday and Soybean Oil closed higher. Ideas that Chinese demand will stay weak overall and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better. Export demand for the US is improved with the strong sales from last week. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a better buyer in the last couple of weeks. South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. Production potential is already being hurt in Argentina. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August.
Overnight News: China bought 110,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1421, 1407, and 1402 January, and resistance is at 1447, 1459, and 1465 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 408.00, 402.00, and 399.00 December, and resistance is at 415.00 417.00, and 423.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7310, 7130, and 7120 December, with resistance at 7440, 7590, and 7750 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on reports of bad weather in growing areas that is delaying harvest. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported so the cities are still imposing lockdowns. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to chart patterns and ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 818.00. Support is at 828.00, 820.00, and 803.00 January, with resistance at 857.00, 864.00, and 873.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3920, 3790, and 3730 February, with resistance at 4120, 4200, and 4360 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
170 Dec
225 Dec
180 Dec
200 Jan

December
155 Dec
225 Dec
180 Dec
195 Jan

January
150 Mar
178 Mar
160 Mar
180 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 22
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 830.80 -14.00 Jan. 2023 dn 12.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 870.10 35.00 Jan. 2023 dn 9.70
Basis: Vancouver 885.10 50.00 Jan. 2023 dn 9.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 965.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 955.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 975.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 972.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 880.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 785.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 4100.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 248.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5735)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 107,487 lots, or 5.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,551 5,584 5,546 5,565 5,574 5,564 -10 77,262 95,759
Mar-23 5,488 5,506 5,478 5,484 5,500 5,490 -10 14,303 39,508
May-23 5,501 5,516 5,488 5,490 5,505 5,497 -8 10,586 28,681
Jul-23 5,473 5,495 5,472 5,480 5,485 5,481 -4 1,776 11,633
Sep-23 5,456 5,477 5,454 5,454 5,466 5,463 -3 1,932 10,292
Nov-23 5,453 5,472 5,451 5,458 5,461 5,459 -2 1,628 7,085
Corn
Turnover: 567,293 lots, or 16.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,861 2,882 2,854 2,879 2,853 2,870 17 319,495 518,634
Mar-23 2,865 2,884 2,856 2,881 2,858 2,872 14 122,826 458,241
May-23 2,892 2,911 2,891 2,901 2,894 2,901 7 54,139 196,151
Jul-23 2,882 2,887 2,875 2,876 2,886 2,882 -4 47,685 225,702
Sep-23 2,893 2,894 2,879 2,881 2,891 2,886 -5 5,463 19,227
Nov-23 2,892 2,896 2,883 2,885 2,891 2,889 -2 17,685 36,557
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,208,768 lots, or 48.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 4,585 4,630 4,570 4,612 4,569 4,608 39 8,909 15,716
Jan-23 4,168 4,225 4,166 4,212 4,168 4,197 29 831,040 1,317,647
Mar-23 3,999 4,024 3,989 4,014 3,995 4,007 12 49,415 214,059
May-23 3,661 3,675 3,639 3,663 3,667 3,656 -11 252,844 659,796
Jul-23 3,615 3,632 3,598 3,622 3,624 3,613 -11 25,476 117,203
Aug-23 3,660 3,676 3,637 3,661 3,663 3,652 -11 19,846 68,107
Sep-23 3,617 3,635 3,596 3,617 3,620 3,613 -7 15,927 55,232
Nov-23 3,579 3,594 3,559 3,581 3,583 3,572 -11 5,311 17,722
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,012,303 lots, or 81.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 7,908 8,136 7,908 8,098 7,870 8,044 174 232 660
Jan-23 7,992 8,086 7,962 8,068 7,900 8,028 128 858,434 378,849
Feb-23 8,092 8,204 8,086 8,156 8,014 8,144 130 12,765 83,717
Mar-23 8,142 8,268 8,142 8,206 8,072 8,202 130 7,493 60,801
Apr-23 8,122 8,234 8,114 8,204 8,040 8,166 126 5,428 43,036
May-23 8,072 8,156 8,024 8,112 7,962 8,092 130 119,368 172,623
Jun-23 8,010 8,080 7,956 8,030 7,878 8,020 142 3,430 26,818
Jul-23 7,948 8,016 7,894 7,972 7,844 7,956 112 4,930 21,227
Aug-23 7,914 7,932 7,888 7,888 7,830 7,910 80 3 45
Sep-23 7,792 7,868 7,772 7,848 7,754 7,830 76 218 696
Oct-23 7,730 7,782 7,730 7,782 7,684 7,756 72 2 41
Nov-23 – – – 7,718 7,718 7,718 0 0 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 593,852 lots, or 53.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 9,610 9,678 9,448 9,614 9,514 9,548 34 279 2,145
Jan-23 9,052 9,136 8,988 9,068 9,018 9,062 44 506,712 388,276
Mar-23 8,780 8,842 8,712 8,766 8,736 8,782 46 10,736 81,180
May-23 8,588 8,648 8,530 8,582 8,550 8,588 38 63,971 155,943
Jul-23 8,526 8,556 8,444 8,444 8,474 8,502 28 1,955 48,075
Aug-23 8,480 8,518 8,434 8,466 8,440 8,476 36 2,916 30,302
Sep-23 8,406 8,460 8,382 8,408 8,384 8,414 30 1,604 6,001
Nov-23 8,370 8,386 8,332 8,360 8,328 8,356 28 5,679 5,485
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322