Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower to limit down yesterday after another week of very disappointing export sales and on ideas that demand will stay weak. The US Dollar was much stronger yesterday. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices to date. China is making some initial moves to open its economy and country again. China is making moves to shore up the housing sector in the country. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Trends are turning down on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,133 bales, from 880 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton was 79% harvested, from 71% last week, 74% last year, and 71% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 80.80, 79.60, and 76.90 December, with resistance of 85.10, 87.80 and 89.80 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yester in range trading. It looks like the market is developing a trading range and might have completed a short term low. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Brazil told Bloomberg News that US imports of its juice are up 58% for the first four months of the marketing year ad were 112.500 tons in October alone.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 119 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 119 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 213.00 and 222.00 January. Support is at 203.00, 199.00, and 195.00 January, with resistance at 207.00, 212.00, and 219.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in a short covering rally. The buying came despite news of much improved growing conditions for Coffee this year in Brazil. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing and the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.513 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 152.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 37 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 131 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 146.00 March. Support is at 154.00, 151.00, and 148.00 March, and resistance is at 163.00, 169.00 and 174.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday, and trends are still mixed in both markets. The weakness came on selling tied to a stronger US Dollar and on ideas of increasing supplies to the market. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market has weighed on prices for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts. The ISO said last week that world production should increase to 182.14 million tons, a new record and 3.5% above this year. Consumption is expected to be 174.3 million tons, from 175.9 million tons this year. That should be enough Sugar to produce a surplus of 6.18 million tons, from a deficit of 1.66 million tons this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1890 March and resistance is at 2050, 2060, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 532.00, 531.00, and 529.00 March and resistance is at 543.00, 550.00, and 553.00 March.
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed higher yesterday in currency related trading. Trends are down in New York but are mixed to up in London. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.511 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2050 December. Support is at 2350, 2340, and 2300 December, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2470 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2090 December. Support is at 2010, 1980, and 1950 December, with resistance at 2050, 2110, and 2130 December.