About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 21
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Nov 21, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
SOURCE: USDA, FGIS;
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 17, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/17/2022 11/10/2022 11/18/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 147 96 1,708 9,839
CORN 495,395 535,416 826,140 5,479,500 7,827,218
FLAXSEED 0 100 100 200 124
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 300
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 53,665 3,087 238,986 274,692 753,689
SOYBEANS 2,329,082 1,964,181 2,516,355 17,128,301 19,141,214
SUNFLOWER 0 96 0 2,160 432
WHEAT 279,904 170,424 193,189 10,279,437 10,513,524
Total 3,158,046 2,673,451 3,774,866 33,172,484 38,246,340
————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 20-Nov 13-Nov 2021 Avg
Cotton Harvested 79 71 74 71
Corn Har vested 96 93 94 90
Sorghum Harvested 97 93 93 92
Peanuts Harvested 94 91 91 92
Winter Wheat Emerged 87 81 85 86
Sunflowers Harvested 95 91 89 78

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 15 18 35 27 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 14 18 36 27 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 8 14 34 37 7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower on follow through selling yesterday with the selling tied to news that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement was reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume. The news kept Russian and other world Wheat values on the weaker trend. The weekly charts for all three markets show sideways trends but demand fundamentals remain bearish. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen in the reports last week but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 712 December. Support is at 791, 786, and 783 December, with resistance at 816, 834, and 843 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 917, 915, and 896 December, with resistance at 945, 975, and 982 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 945, 933, and 929 December, and resistance is at 973, 983, and 993 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday and trends remain mixed on the daily charts. Futures failed to move above 1800 January again last week but the weekly charts showed a positive close and the potential to finally get above that strong resistance area. It seemed that the market found some Rice this week and now has enough for current needs. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involve4d in other pursuits. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1752, and 1745 January and resistance is at 1797, 1805, and 1855 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn weaker on bad demand ideas and on ideas that USDA might have understated production potential for the US crop. The weekly charts show that Corn is against resistance areas but Oat appear to be putting together a longer term bottom. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market and USDA was expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving but the improvement for now appears to be short term. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. Other interior basis levels have been strong due to a lack of farm selling. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 651, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 665, 674 and 677 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 411, 426, and 435 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 376 December, and resistance is at 400, 410, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday. Ideas that Chinese demand will stay weak overall and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better. The weekly export sales report was stronger than expected on Thursday at well over 3.0 million tons and the export inspections released yesterday were strong as well at just over 2.0 million tons. Export demand for the US is heating up and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a better buyer in the last couple of weeks. South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. Production potential is already being hurt in Argentina. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1407, 1402, and 1391 January, and resistance is at 1447, 1459, and 1465 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 422.00 and 432.00 December. Support is at 408.00, 402.00, and 399.00 December, and resistance is at 417.00 423.00, and 425.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6730 December. Support is at 7120, 6960, and 6810 December, with resistance at 7440, 7590, and 7750 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on reports of good demand and on a weaker Ringgit. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported so the cities are still imposing lockdowns. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower yesterday on ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 818.00. Support is at 828.00, 820.00, and 803.00 January, with resistance at 857.00, 864.00, and 873.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3900 February. Support is at 3790, 3730, and 3670 February, with resistance at 4010, 4120, and 4200 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
180 Dec
230 Dec
180 Dec
220 Jan

December
160 Dec
230 Dec
180 Dec
205 Jan

January
154 Mar
183 Mar
160 Mar
200 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 21
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 843.10 -14.00 Jan. 2023 dn 4.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 879.80 35.00 Jan. 2023 dn 12.30
Basis: Vancouver 894.80 50.00 Jan. 2023 dn 12.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 940.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 940.00 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 937.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 950.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 950.00 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 947.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 860.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 765.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 4050.00 +150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 247.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.575)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 92,492 lots, or 5.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,604 5,604 5,562 5,575 5,606 5,574 -32 67,750 90,615
Mar-23 5,505 5,512 5,488 5,497 5,526 5,500 -26 12,832 36,769
May-23 5,499 5,517 5,498 5,502 5,519 5,505 -14 7,966 26,653
Jul-23 5,470 5,495 5,470 5,482 5,501 5,485 -16 1,527 11,184
Sep-23 5,467 5,477 5,454 5,461 5,483 5,466 -17 1,337 9,587
Nov-23 5,466 5,473 5,454 5,458 5,476 5,461 -15 1,080 6,477
Corn
Turnover: 434,997 lots, or 12.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,854 2,865 2,845 2,856 2,841 2,853 12 251,136 567,411
Mar-23 2,863 2,867 2,852 2,858 2,849 2,858 9 96,873 455,983
May-23 2,894 2,902 2,888 2,892 2,891 2,894 3 41,558 183,258
Jul-23 2,888 2,896 2,881 2,882 2,885 2,886 1 27,617 226,024
Sep-23 2,895 2,896 2,887 2,887 2,891 2,891 0 3,082 17,260
Nov-23 2,889 2,897 2,887 2,888 2,887 2,891 4 14,731 35,222
Soymeal
Turnover: 954,908 lots, or 38.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 4,530 4,592 4,520 4,575 4,516 4,569 53 3,836 18,611
Jan-23 4,140 4,187 4,139 4,168 4,132 4,168 36 676,971 1,330,936
Mar-23 3,951 4,017 3,951 3,990 3,955 3,995 40 51,796 215,051
May-23 3,652 3,683 3,650 3,656 3,650 3,667 17 173,954 663,895
Jul-23 3,608 3,640 3,608 3,614 3,607 3,624 17 23,289 117,536
Aug-23 3,650 3,675 3,650 3,658 3,650 3,663 13 11,719 68,007
Sep-23 3,612 3,634 3,607 3,619 3,606 3,620 14 8,913 50,525
Nov-23 3,582 3,596 3,572 3,578 3,568 3,583 15 4,430 16,391
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,221,903 lots, or 96.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 7,866 8,046 7,782 8,002 7,866 7,870 4 101 875
Jan-23 7,884 8,034 7,714 7,946 7,840 7,900 60 1,027,087 383,413
Feb-23 7,994 8,152 7,842 8,068 7,972 8,014 42 17,712 83,548
Mar-23 8,012 8,208 7,900 8,124 8,012 8,072 60 11,688 60,183
Apr-23 7,974 8,178 7,868 8,102 7,974 8,040 66 3,717 42,761
May-23 7,900 8,092 7,778 8,020 7,878 7,962 84 149,370 167,425
Jun-23 7,878 8,030 7,730 7,966 7,828 7,878 50 4,977 26,936
Jul-23 7,816 7,968 7,690 7,910 7,782 7,844 62 6,902 21,465
Aug-23 7,772 7,886 7,772 7,886 7,694 7,830 136 13 45
Sep-23 7,724 7,850 7,610 7,786 7,676 7,754 78 326 717
Oct-23 7,602 7,756 7,602 7,756 7,630 7,684 54 4 41
Nov-23 7,666 7,774 7,666 7,728 7,642 7,718 76 6 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 737,804 lots, or 66.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 9,598 9,598 9,402 9,550 9,684 9,514 -170 573 2,213
Jan-23 9,070 9,084 8,912 9,032 9,080 9,018 -62 622,677 393,626
Mar-23 8,782 8,796 8,644 8,758 8,774 8,736 -38 8,912 78,701
May-23 8,592 8,620 8,462 8,562 8,548 8,550 2 90,331 153,767
Jul-23 8,522 8,542 8,396 8,484 8,472 8,474 2 3,448 47,794
Aug-23 8,484 8,498 8,368 8,450 8,444 8,440 -4 4,721 30,026
Sep-23 8,428 8,430 8,308 8,404 8,384 8,384 0 1,878 5,674
Nov-23 8,340 8,362 8,266 8,352 8,328 8,328 0 5,264 4,621
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322