About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week in sideways trading after another week of very disappointing export sales. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices to date. China is making some initial moves to open its economy and country again. China is making moves to shore up the housing sector in the country. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Trends are still mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,133 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.00, 80.80, and 79.60 December, with resistance of 87.80, 89.90 and 91.80 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 15, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 267,305
: Positions :
: 29,556 42,933 76,079 63,838 124,470 82,541 10,820 252,014 254,303: 15,291 13,003
: Changes from: November 8, 2022 (Change in open interest: -79,534) :
: 1,420 -1,849 -44,844 -34,237 -27,729 -1,136 -4,002 -78,796 -78,424: -738 -1,110
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 16.1 28.5 23.9 46.6 30.9 4.0 94.3 95.1: 5.7 4.9
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 68 92 53 62 47 22 229 215:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower last week in range trading. It looks like the market is developing a trading range and might have completed a short term low. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida Dept of Citrus said that retail sales of Orange Juice fell to a three year low at 28.61 million gallons for October. Prices reached a new high of &8.37 per gallon.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 195.00, 191.00, and 187.00 January, with resistance at 204.00, 207.00, and 212.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 15, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,327 :
: Positions :
: 1,340 9,039 2,148 96 14 4,835 153 71 789 728 889 :
: Changes from: November 8, 2022 :
: 378 -514 -13 28 -6 -163 0 -7 -72 48 -14 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 73.3 17.4 0.8 0.1 39.2 1.2 0.6 6.4 5.9 7.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72 :
: 10 14 6 . . 26 . . 7 10 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher Friday. New York and London were both lower for the week with New York taking the biggest hit. The selling came in response to much improved growing conditions for Coffee this year in Brazil. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing and the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition, although Colombia is recovering from big and excessive rains seen earlier in the development cycle. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.497 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 151.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers in the north and dry conditions in the south with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 94 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 94 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 146.00 March. Support is at 154.00, 151.00, and 148.00 March, and resistance is at 161.00, 168.00 and 174.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 15, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 248,937
: Positions :
: 20,804 44,182 75,407 86,759 103,369 53,608 17,082 236,579 240,040: 12,358 8,897
: Changes from: November 8, 2022 (Change in open interest: -49,501) :
: 2,862 6,902 -40,581 -14,067 -17,809 2,023 1,762 -49,762 -49,725: 261 224
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 17.7 30.3 34.9 41.5 21.5 6.9 95.0 96.4: 5.0 3.6
: Total Traders: 369 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 102 103 108 99 49 29 302 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/15/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
131,919 81,182 55,190 1,596 2,978 2,627
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 61.5% 41.8% 1.2% 2.3% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
138 46 34 8 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,595 34,136 5,472 6,257 1,907 23,939
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 25.9% 4.1% 4.7% 1.4% 18.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 35 13 13 10 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,251 5,670
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.0% 4.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday, and trends are now mixed in both markets. New York was higher for the week, but London was lower. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market has weighed on prices for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts. The ISO said this week that world production should increase to 182.14 million tons, a new record and 3.5% above this year. Consumption is expected to be 174.3 million tons, from 175.9 million tons this year. That should be enough Sugar to produce a surplus of 6.18 million tons, from a deficit of 1.66 million tons this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1890 March and resistance is at 2050, 2060, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 532.00, 531.00, and 529.00 March and resistance is at 553.00, 556.00, and 559.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 15, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,008,911
: Positions :
: 162,013 75,354 191,411 295,537 629,026 261,363 59,501 910,323 955,292: 98,588 53,619
: Changes from: November 8, 2022 (Change in open interest: 88,811) :
: 57,674 -16,460 14,064 -11,093 81,151 10,609 5,806 71,253 84,560: 17,559 4,251
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.1 7.5 19.0 29.3 62.3 25.9 5.9 90.2 94.7: 9.8 5.3
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 50 70 63 70 43 19 219 181:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/15/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
91,594 34,394 73,667 6,283 3,203 2,252
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.5% 80.4% 6.9% 3.5% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
127 29 37 9 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
32,537 1,245 3,150 2,187 1,000 3,368
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.5% 1.4% 3.4% 2.4% 1.1% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 4 15 8 7 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,423 3,709
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.1% 4.0%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly higher on Friday. New York closed sharply lower last week while London closed slightly higher. Trends are down in New York but mixed in London. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.525 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2380 and 2050 December. Support is at 2380, 2350, and 2340 December, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2520 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1910 December, with resistance at 2050, 2110, and 2130 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 15, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 322,469
: Positions :
: 47,354 47,948 87,918 120,148 145,910 54,966 31,445 310,386 313,222: 12,084 9,247
: Changes from: November 8, 2022 (Change in open interest: -22,672) :
: -8,164 -19,565 -2,490 -10,296 2,964 -1,196 -3,669 -22,148 -22,760: -524 88
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 14.9 27.3 37.3 45.2 17.0 9.8 96.3 97.1: 3.7 2.9
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 68 76 49 38 37 22 205 169:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/15/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
370,611 159,336 250,546 30,456 29,337 22,747
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 43.0% 67.6% 8.2% 7.9% 6.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 49 49 14 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
80,181 5,620 12,432 14,586 2,374 46,187
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.6% 1.5% 3.4% 3.9% 0.6% 12.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 8 20 10 15 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,686 1,368
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322