About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower after another week of very disappointing export sales. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices to date. China is making some initial moves to open its economy and country again. China is making moves to shore up the housing sector in the country. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Trends are still mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.42 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.00, 80.80, and 79.60 December, with resistance of 87.30, 89.90 and 91.80 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 17
As of Nov 11. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 22 11,909 15,266 -3,357 7,573 8,511 -938
Mar 23 28,215 26,605 1,610 9,508 9,183 325
May 23 9,765 9,538 227 1,009 1,038 -29
Jul 23 15,972 15,810 162 1,511 1,251 260
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 7,692 7,523 169 16,345 16,147 198
Mar 24 494 494 0 0 0 0
May 24 288 285 3 0 0 0
Jul 24 349 349 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 440 440 0 1,057 991 66
Mar 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 75,124 76,310 -1,186 37,003 37,121 -118
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 22 31,373 88,567 -57,194
Mar 23 97,294 85,680 11,614
May 23 27,802 25,370 2,432
Jul 23 28,783 25,458 3,325
Oct 23 3 2 1
Dec 23 21,365 21,818 -453
Mar 24 2,571 2,567 4
May 24 470 470 0
Jul 24 758 759 -1
Dec 24 1,370 1,358 12
Mar 25 20 20 0
May 25 2 2 0
Total 211,811 252,071 -40,260

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower yesterday in range trading. It looks like the market is developing a trading range and might have completed a short term low. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 195.00, 191.00, and 187.00 January, with resistance at 204.00, 207.00, and 212.00 January.

DJ Retail Orange-Juice Sales at Three-Year Low — Market Talk
1003 ET – The amount of orange juice sold in the US fell to a three-year low while retail prices reached a new high of $8.37 a gallon. The Florida Department of Citrus says 28.61 million gallons were sold in the four weeks ended Nov. 5, the lowest since October 2019. Orange-juice sales rose during the Covid-19 pandemic but have since tapered off and have hovered around 28 million gallons since July. The beverage known for its high levels of vitamin C usually gets a boost during flu season, so it’s possible the next report will show a recovery in sales. (mary.dewet@wsj.com)

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher yesterday. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing and the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition, although Colombia is recovering from big and excessive rains seen earlier in the development cycle. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.484 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 151.76 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers in the north and dry conditions in the south with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 144.00 December. Support is at 149.00, 146.00, and 143.00 December, and resistance is at 163.00, 169.00 and 174.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower yesterday, and trends are now mixed in both markets. A higher US Dollar hurt prices in these markets. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market has weighed on prices for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts. The ISO said this week that world production should increase to 182.14 million tons, a new record and 3.5% above this year. Consumption is expected to be 174.3 million tons, from 175.9 million tons this year. That should be enough Sugar to produce a surplus of 6.18 million tons, from a deficit of 1.66 million tons this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1890, and 1800 March and resistance is at 2020, 2050, and 2080 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 520.00, 513.00, and 507.00 March and resistance is at 543.00, 553.00, and 556.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower, with most of the weakness in New York due to a sharply higher US Dollar. Trends are down in New York but mixed in London because of the currency moves. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.525 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2380 December. Support is at 2430, 2410, and 2380 December, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2560 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1970, 1920, and 1870 December. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1910 December, with resistance at 2010, 2050, and 2110 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322