About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on news that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement was reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen in the reports last week but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated show showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated snow. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see iwolatredd snow. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 796, 791, and 783 December, with resistance at 834, 843, and 864 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 917, 915, and 896 December, with resistance at 975, 982, and 991 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 946, 933, and 929 December, and resistance is at 973, 983, and 993 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday and trends turned down on the daily charts. Futures failed to move above 1800 January again this week. It seemed that the market found some Rice this week and now has enough for current needs so prices fell from the highs. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1748 and 1720 January. Support is at 1752, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1805, 1855, and 1867 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed mixed yesterday on stronger than expected weekly export sales. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market and USDA was expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 651, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 675, 677 and 679 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 411, 426, and 435 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 376 December, and resistance is at 400, 410, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on ideas that Chinese demand will stay weak overall and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better. The weekly export sales report was stronger than expected yesterday. Export demand for the US is heating up even with no new announcements made yesterday and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a better buyer in the last couple of weeks. South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. Production potential is already being hurt in Argentina. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. The NOPA crush was 164.464 million bushels this month, in line with trade ideas and the second highest on record.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1407, 1402, and 1391 January, and resistance is at 1434, 1459, and 1465 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 402.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 412.00 414.00, and 417.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6730 December. Support is at 7120, 76960, and 6810 December, with resistance at 7440, 7590, and 7750 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported so the cities are still imposing lockdowns. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower yesterday along with Chicago and on news that Ukraine had actually dropped the bombs on Poland while fighting the Russians. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed . Support is at 858.00, 850.00, and 820.00 January, with resistance at 880.00, 900.00, and 904.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3900 February. Support is at 3750, 3670, and 3630 February, with resistance at 4010, 4120, and 4200 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry or light snow today but big snow near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
180 Dec
230 Dec
180 Dec
220 Jan

December
160 Dec
230 Dec
180 Dec
205 Jan

January
154 Mar
183 Mar
160 Mar
200 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 884.60 -10.00 Jan 2023 up 9.70
Track Thunder Bay 917.40 35.00 Jan 2023 dn 12.20
Track Vancouver 932.40 50.00 Jan 2023 dn 12.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 910.00 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 910.00 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 915.00 -42.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 910.00 -42.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 912.50 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 912.50 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 917.50 -42.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 912.50 -42.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 825.00 -30.00 Unquoted –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 745.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3900.00 -150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 240.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.55)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 160,047 lots, or 9.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,625 5,696 5,602 5,675 5,600 5,665 65 119,688 85,295
Mar-23 5,514 5,591 5,513 5,580 5,518 5,572 54 14,770 34,159
May-23 5,511 5,584 5,511 5,561 5,519 5,564 45 15,061 24,943
Jul-23 5,492 5,550 5,484 5,529 5,487 5,532 45 2,940 10,980
Sep-23 5,470 5,529 5,469 5,515 5,465 5,513 48 3,397 8,828
Nov-23 5,461 5,535 5,455 5,515 5,451 5,507 56 4,191 5,773
Corn
Turnover: 458,837 lots, or 12.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,805 2,827 2,800 2,816 2,821 2,813 -8 278,664 637,365
Mar-23 2,825 2,842 2,819 2,832 2,841 2,831 -10 93,365 446,626
May-23 2,868 2,881 2,860 2,874 2,879 2,870 -9 30,910 170,442
Jul-23 2,866 2,881 2,857 2,870 2,877 2,871 -6 35,054 223,827
Sep-23 2,874 2,886 2,864 2,876 2,882 2,877 -5 4,347 14,811
Nov-23 2,859 2,879 2,859 2,869 2,874 2,868 -6 16,497 29,801
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,498,955 lots, or 59.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 4,534 4,554 4,494 4,497 4,560 4,523 -37 5,097 21,324
Jan-23 4,126 4,151 4,090 4,109 4,151 4,122 -29 1,065,840 1,343,688
Mar-23 3,943 3,975 3,929 3,941 3,979 3,950 -29 70,871 204,324
May-23 3,640 3,662 3,618 3,639 3,660 3,641 -19 298,743 669,811
Jul-23 3,601 3,621 3,581 3,601 3,617 3,603 -14 38,716 118,224
Aug-23 3,629 3,657 3,627 3,633 3,653 3,639 -14 5,436 67,344
Sep-23 3,597 3,618 3,586 3,594 3,615 3,599 -16 10,013 47,853
Nov-23 3,551 3,576 3,551 3,556 3,576 3,562 -14 4,239 11,425
Palm Oil
Turnover: 975,747 lots, or 77.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 7,910 8,006 7,880 7,942 8,024 7,930 -94 224 966
Jan-23 7,848 7,980 7,806 7,898 7,936 7,896 -40 831,108 398,205
Feb-23 7,964 8,116 7,920 8,020 8,050 8,018 -32 12,863 81,566
Mar-23 7,988 8,164 7,952 8,062 8,100 8,070 -30 10,048 58,001
Apr-23 7,962 8,112 7,928 8,016 8,076 8,030 -46 3,175 41,476
May-23 7,874 8,026 7,828 7,930 7,984 7,936 -48 106,209 152,209
Jun-23 7,864 7,976 7,782 7,868 7,916 7,886 -30 5,801 26,862
Jul-23 7,732 7,920 7,728 7,818 7,886 7,838 -48 6,014 20,107
Aug-23 7,720 7,814 7,720 7,814 7,820 7,786 -34 10 51
Sep-23 7,680 7,808 7,632 7,714 7,774 7,724 -50 290 727
Oct-23 – – – 7,742 7,742 7,742 0 0 41
Nov-23 7,654 7,700 7,618 7,700 7,694 7,648 -46 5 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 727,497 lots, or 6.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 9,716 9,842 9,710 9,724 9,656 9,768 112 427 3,356
Jan-23 9,100 9,282 9,090 9,202 9,138 9,190 52 624,161 400,999
Mar-23 8,812 8,906 8,792 8,868 8,836 8,850 14 11,347 78,312
May-23 8,548 8,656 8,518 8,600 8,572 8,584 12 80,462 145,076
Jul-23 8,432 8,558 8,432 8,516 8,482 8,508 26 4,254 46,324
Aug-23 8,420 8,520 8,400 8,482 8,444 8,454 10 3,520 28,819
Sep-23 8,364 8,460 8,344 8,438 8,392 8,408 16 1,125 4,727
Nov-23 8,292 8,384 8,288 8,356 8,334 8,338 4 2,201 2,760
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322