About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to higher, with December and March a little lower as Presidents Biden and Xi met in Bali. The meeting apparently produced a warning from Xi on Taiwan but little lese although world food security was discussed. No new business got done. China is in Bali trying to shore up support for its policies and to warn against forcing new things on them. China is making some initial moves to open its economy and country again. China is making moves to shore up the housing sector in the country. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Trends are still mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.90 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 25,100 bales thius year and 8,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 88.40, 87.40, and 85.20 December, with resistance of 91.80, 92.50 and 95.00 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday. It looks like the market is developing a trading range and might have completed a short term low. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 195.00, 191.00, and 187.00 January, with resistance at 204.00, 207.00, and 212.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday but held the recent trading ranges in both markets. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing and the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition, although Colombia is recovering from big and excessive rains seen earlier in the development cycle. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.485 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 152.58 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers in the north and dry conditions in the south with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 144.00 December. Support is at 154.00, 152.00, and 149.00 December, and resistance is at 163.00, 169.00 and 174.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 January, and resistance is at 1810, 1850, and 1880 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday, but trends are still up in both markets. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market, but trends remain up here as well. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts. The ISO said this week that world production should increase to 182.14 million tons, a new record and 3.5% above this year. Consumption is expected to be 174.3 million tons, from 175.9 million tons this year. That should be enough Sugar to produce a surplus of 6.18 million tons, from a deficit of 1.66 million tons this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1940 March and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2120 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 542.00, 533.00, and 531.00 March and resistance is at 554.00, 557.00, and 560.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed mixed to higher after being lower early in the session. Trends remain up in both markets and both markets are being supported by reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast ports. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.526 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2450 and 2380 December. Support is at 2470, 2450, and 2430 December, with resistance at 2520, 2560, and 2580 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1970, 1920, and 1870 December. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1910 December, with resistance at 2010, 2050, and 2110 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322