About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Russia Agrees to Renew Ukraine Grain Deal, U.N. Says — 3rd Update
By Jared Malsin and William Mauldin
Moscow agreed to renew an arrangement with Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations that allows for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products through the war-torn Black Sea region.
The extension avoids for now another shutdown of the agreement by Moscow, after Russia briefly dropped out of the deal late last month. Russian officials had been demanding more international access for its food and fertilizer exports ahead of a weekend deadline for the current deal to be renewed.
In the end, Moscow committed to honoring the existing deal for another four months, without any of the big changes it had asked for. That included better international access for its agriculture exports and a request by Russian officials to restart ammonia exports through a Ukrainian pipeline.
Russia’s foreign ministry said that resolving issues around its agricultural-related exports would be a condition for renewing the deal in four months’ time. Western countries haven’t sanctioned those exports, but sanctions might have created obstacles to financing and shipping Russian agricultural products, U.N. officials say.
The U.N. is “fully committed to removing the remaining obstacles to exporting food and fertilizers from the Russian Federation,” said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.
Moscow also warned Ukraine against using the extended deal for military purposes. Russia had previously accused Ukraine of staging attacks on Crimea using the corridor, an allegation Ukraine has denied. “It should also be absolutely clear that any attempts to use the humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea for provocative military purposes will be resolutely suppressed,” the statement said.
The grain agreement, signed by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the U.N. in July, allowed Ukraine to resume shipping food products through three Black Sea ports, partially lifting a Russian blockade that triggered fears of a deepening global food crisis. The deal has helped Ukraine to resume shipping wheat, corn and other products at nearly prewar levels, bringing global prices down.
Grain prices fell sharply after the U.N. announced an extension of the deal on Thursday morning. Wheat prices dropped 1.7% to $8.04 a bushel and corn prices were down close to 1% to $6.59 a bushel. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the extension a “key decision in the global fight against the food crisis.”
Moscow had pushed for Ukraine to allow for the export of Russian ammonia through a pipeline across the country. Ukrainian officials have been reluctant, citing safety concerns about storing the material at the pipeline’s terminus in Odessa, as well as political sensitivity within Ukraine.
The grain agreement is the largest diplomatic breakthrough of the entire war, and preserving it has been a priority for Mr. Guterres and for Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker the negotiations. Thursday’s extension followed weeks of diplomacy including during the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, and among diplomats meeting in Istanbul and Geneva.
Russia briefly suspended its role in the grain agreement in late October, threatening to bring the maritime corridor to a halt. Moscow rejoined the deal days later following negotiations with the U.N. and Turkey.
Mr. Putin had threatened to abandon the grain agreement in recent months, arguing that not enough of the grain was being shipped to poor countries. U.N. data showed that as of September some 28% of grain shipped under the initiative went to lower-income nations, including humanitarian shipments to Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Somalia.
U.S. and European leaders pressed Russian officials to renew the deal during the G-20 this week.
“Russia heard and apparently felt that the world would not accept Moscow refusing to extend the agreement,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Bangkok.
A looming deadline on Nov. 19 for the deal’s renewal had weighed on Ukraine’s vast farming community. The deal has effectively reopened their key export route. Before the war, farmers shipped over 95% of their products through the Black Sea.
“For the likes of my company, it is critical,” said Oleh Bakhmatyuk, the chairman of UkrLandFarming, one of Ukraine’s biggest farming groups. “If farmers can’t sell, they can’t plant and sow again, so there is a knock on effect.”
Some farmers had hoped that a new deal would go further than the previous one. Ukraine had at one stage pushed to broaden the deal to include the ports of Mykolaiv, which are among the largest in Ukraine. Mykolaiv ports had shipped 35% of the country’s food exports before the war, according to grain trader Nibulon Ltd.
“Without access to these ports, exporters have to use alternative routes by road and river that are much slower and, in some cases, 10 to 40 times more expensive,” said Andriy Vadaturskyy, chief executive of Mykolaiv-based Nibulon.
Ukraine has shipped more than 11 million tons of wheat, corn, sunflower oil and other goods from three ports located in the Odessa region since exports resumed in August, U.N. data shows. Ukrainian officials had pushed to expand the agreement to include additional ports and products in recent months, but set aside those demands to focus on a renewal of the existing deal, diplomats said.
Still unresolved is the problem of a backlog of ships waiting to enter and exit the Black Sea corridor. The U.N. said on Wednesday evening that 67 vessels are waiting to move, following inspection, toward Ukraine. Those vessels have the capacity to export about 1.5 million tons of grain and other products. Another 16 loaded vessels are waiting to leave the Black Sea following inspection in Istanbul.
Ukraine has in recent weeks accused Russia of creating the backlog by deliberately slowing the work of the joint inspection teams stationed in Istanbul, limiting the number of ships coming to and from Ukraine. Russia says it is cooperating with the initiative. Teams from all four parties inspect each ship coming to and from Ukraine to provide security and prevent smuggling.
The renewal of the deal includes no changes to the work of the inspection teams, according to Ismini Palla, a spokeswoman for the U.N. at the Joint Coordination Center for the deal in Istanbul.
— Ann M. Simmons and Alistair MacDonald contributed to this article.
Write to William Mauldin at william.mauldin@wsj.com

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 17
For the week ended Nov 10, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 290.3 0.0 12784.3 13673.0 3699.1 24.0
hrw 60.7 0.0 3531.2 5335.7 918.7 6.3
srw 21.3 0.0 2200.3 2023.2 522.7 6.6
hrs 74.2 0.0 3769.0 3703.2 1152.9 10.8
white 134.1 0.0 3144.5 2481.4 1043.2 0.3
durum 0.0 0.0 139.4 129.7 61.7 0.0
corn 1169.7 0.0 15899.4 32980.3 10932.9 311.0
soybeans 3030.1 0.0 35983.8 34539.2 21397.9 0.0
soymeal 267.1 0.0 4407.3 5143.9 3374.2 2.0
soyoil 0.4 0.0 32.6 211.8 24.6 0.6
upland cotton 25.1 8.1 8800.9 8773.4 5844.0 1120.8
pima cotton 0.3 0.0 104.8 326.5 80.2 0.9
sorghum 0.0 0.0 353.9 3601.6 305.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 14.0 30.0 10.1 0.0
rice 16.7 0.0 657.9 1253.0 257.9 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on ideas that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement will be reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume. Russia said that negotiations are going well, but there has been no agreement yet and something could easily come up to derail the talks. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen in the reports last week but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolatrd show showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see isolated snow. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see iwolatredd snow. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 796, 791, and 783 December, with resistance at 834, 843, and 864 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 938, 917, and 915 December, with resistance at 975, 982, and 991 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 985, 993, and 1010 December. Support is at 954, 946, and 933 December, and resistance is at 973, 983, and 993 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday and trends turned down on the daily charts. Futures failed to move above 1800 January again this week. It seemed that the market found some Rice this week and now has enough for current needs so prices fell from the highs. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1748 and 1720 January. Support is at 1752, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1790, 1805, and 1855 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday on news that the bombs dropped on Poland were from Ukraine and accidental as Russia was bombing Ukraine in a big way. Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market and USDA was expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 661, 651, and 647 December, and resistance is at 675, 677 and 679 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 411, 426, and 435 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 376 December, and resistance is at 400, 410, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on news that Ukraine had accidentally bombed Poland with a couple f bombs while Russia dropped a lot of bombs on Ukraine. It was originally thought that Russia had dropped the bombs on Poland. Export demand for the US is heating up even with no new announcements made yesterday and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a better buyer in the last couple of weeks. South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. Production potential is already being hurt in Argentina. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. The NOPA crush was 164.464 million bushels this month, in line with trade ideas and the second highest on record.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1421, 1409, and 1402 January, and resistance is at 1459, 1465, and 1469 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 402.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 412.00 414.00, and 417.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 7150 and 6730 December. Support is at 7360, 7260, and 73240 December, with resistance at 7590, 7750, and 7860 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower yesterday as increasing demand has met increased supplies in the market. China has relaxed some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower yesterday along with Chicago and on news that Ukraine had actually dropped the bombs on Poland while fighting the Russians. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed . Support is at 880.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 900.00, 904.00, and 907.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3900 February. Support is at 3880, 3750, and 3670 February, with resistance at 4000, 4120, and 4200 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today but snow and rain near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
180 Dec
230 Dec
180 Dec
220 Jan

December
160 Dec
230 Dec
180 Dec
205 Jan

January
154 Mar
183 Mar
160 Mar
200 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 884.60 -10.00 Jan 2023 up 9.70
Track Thunder Bay 917.40 35.00 Jan 2023 dn 12.20
Track Vancouver 932.40 50.00 Jan 2023 dn 12.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 910.00 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 910.00 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 915.00 -42.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 910.00 -42.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 912.50 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 912.50 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 917.50 -42.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 912.50 -42.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 825.00 -30.00 Unquoted –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 745.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3900.00 -150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 240.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.55)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 81,193 lots, or 4.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,620 5,626 5,582 5,613 5,620 5,600 -20 63,013 90,229
Mar-23 5,539 5,539 5,507 5,526 5,538 5,518 -20 7,957 36,937
May-23 5,536 5,541 5,508 5,526 5,531 5,519 -12 5,939 24,992
Jul-23 5,492 5,504 5,477 5,504 5,497 5,487 -10 1,252 10,791
Sep-23 5,469 5,485 5,455 5,473 5,473 5,465 -8 1,358 8,150
Nov-23 5,454 5,465 5,438 5,465 5,458 5,451 -7 1,674 3,564
Corn
Turnover: 516,203 lots, or 14.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,828 2,834 2,810 2,814 2,836 2,821 -15 307,354 623,671
Mar-23 2,848 2,852 2,830 2,833 2,855 2,841 -14 96,019 437,067
May-23 2,886 2,890 2,871 2,872 2,894 2,879 -15 37,561 167,692
Jul-23 2,882 2,888 2,867 2,871 2,890 2,877 -13 39,450 221,294
Sep-23 2,886 2,890 2,874 2,876 2,894 2,882 -12 3,555 13,400
Nov-23 2,875 2,885 2,864 2,868 2,889 2,874 -15 32,264 27,000
Soymeal
Turnover: 954,739 lots, or 38.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 4,599 4,599 4,535 4,549 4,587 4,560 -27 9,253 22,388
Jan-23 4,168 4,174 4,133 4,143 4,154 4,151 -3 701,667 1,407,329
Mar-23 3,997 4,002 3,955 3,963 3,983 3,979 -4 49,537 201,611
May-23 3,674 3,680 3,645 3,650 3,670 3,660 -10 150,148 649,430
Jul-23 3,632 3,638 3,606 3,609 3,632 3,617 -15 25,393 117,383
Aug-23 3,671 3,676 3,644 3,647 3,671 3,653 -18 2,261 66,607
Sep-23 3,640 3,640 3,602 3,607 3,636 3,615 -21 12,694 46,889
Nov-23 3,616 3,616 3,566 3,571 3,589 3,576 -13 3,786 8,658
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,164,588 lots, or 9.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 8,098 8,098 7,884 7,950 8,172 8,024 -148 589 1,114
Jan-23 8,070 8,074 7,832 7,908 8,162 7,936 -226 999,000 409,679
Feb-23 8,156 8,170 7,950 8,012 8,276 8,050 -226 15,930 79,776
Mar-23 8,222 8,230 7,990 8,052 8,330 8,100 -230 10,873 57,570
Apr-23 8,212 8,218 7,960 8,030 8,306 8,076 -230 2,765 40,800
May-23 8,120 8,132 7,864 7,934 8,212 7,984 -228 123,699 148,916
Jun-23 8,060 8,074 7,812 7,888 8,150 7,916 -234 5,056 27,517
Jul-23 8,012 8,018 7,762 7,820 8,082 7,886 -196 5,839 18,985
Aug-23 7,948 7,948 7,738 7,786 7,994 7,820 -174 22 52
Sep-23 7,886 7,904 7,686 7,724 7,942 7,774 -168 804 747
Oct-23 7,846 7,846 7,668 7,674 7,922 7,742 -180 5 41
Nov-23 7,768 7,768 7,658 7,658 7,904 7,694 -210 6 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 693,110 lots, or 62.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 9,630 9,744 9,584 9,744 9,630 9,656 26 1,537 3,479
Jan-23 9,160 9,190 9,088 9,174 9,206 9,138 -68 589,328 397,704
Mar-23 8,912 8,912 8,788 8,866 8,950 8,836 -114 11,140 77,755
May-23 8,616 8,636 8,508 8,600 8,694 8,572 -122 80,341 144,736
Jul-23 8,566 8,566 8,424 8,512 8,596 8,482 -114 4,227 45,604
Aug-23 8,492 8,502 8,392 8,474 8,556 8,444 -112 3,835 28,270
Sep-23 8,424 8,454 8,336 8,418 8,496 8,392 -104 1,604 4,650
Nov-23 8,396 8,396 8,294 8,344 8,420 8,334 -86 1,098 1,812
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322