About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher on news that Russia had dropped some bombs on Poland along the border with Ukraine and on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to short covering as Presidents Biden and Xi met in Bali. The meeting apparently produced a warning from Xi on Taiwan but little lese although world food security was discussed. China is making some initial moves to open its economy and country again. China is making moves to shore up the housing sector in the country. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Trends are still mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.10 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 85.20, 84.20, and 80.80 December, with resistance of 89.30, 89.80 and 90.10 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower again yesterday and the market has apparently topped out on the daily charts. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 195.00 and 183.00 January. Support is at 195.00, 191.00, and 187.00 January, with resistance at 204.00, 207.00, and 212.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed sharply lower and London closed lower yesterday but held to the recent trading ranges. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing and the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition, although Colombia is recoering from big and excessive rains seen earlier in the development cycle. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.468 million bags. GCA stocks are now 6.320 million bags, from 6.378 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 153.52 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 144.00 December. Support is at 152.00, 149.00, and 146.00 December, and resistance is at 163.00, 169.00 and 174.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, and trends are still up in both markets. Part of the rally came from news that Russia had dropped a couple of bombs in Poland near the Ukraine frontier. The news rallied Crude Oil and other markets potentially affected by the Russian moves. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market, but trends remain up here as well. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1980, 1940, and 1890 March and resistance is at 2020, 2060, and 2090 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 542.00, 533.00, and 531.00 March and resistance is at 554.00, 557.00, and 560.00 March.

DJ Sugar Market to Move to Surplus in 2022-23
By Yusuf Khan
The global sugar market is expected to move from deficit to surplus in 2022-23 with global production surging in the coming year.
The International Sugar Organization said in its quarterly report Tuesday that it expects to see a market surplus of 6.18 million metric tons in 2022-23, up from the expected deficit of 1.66 million tons in 2021-22.
Much of this stems from a huge bump in global production, with this expected to rise to 182.14 million tons in 2022-23–a new record and a 3.5% increase on the previous year. Market expectations have been that India and Brazil are likely to increase production levels compared to this year.
Meanwhile, consumption is expected to drift lower to 174.3 million tons from 175.9 million, the ISO said. Export availability, however, is expected to move up to 64.48 million tons from 62.86 million tons.
With global production expected to increase, the ISO said it expects prices to fall over the next year. Prices Tuesday stood at 20 cents a pound in New York for raw sugar, having moved up from 17 cents a pound at the end of September.
The ISO also added that global ethanol production is likely to rise to 111.1 billion liters up 2 billion from 2021-22, though consumption is estimated to rise by 2.1 billion liters to 106.6 billion liters. Much of this rise in production is to be led by India, however, the ISO said long-term demand for ethanol remains a sticking point because of electric-vehicle uptake in Europe.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed mostly higher and London closed lower after both markets moved higher in early trading. Trends remain up in both markets and both markets re being supported by reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast ports. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.519 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2490, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2580, 2600, and 2630 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1980, and 1850 December, with resistance at 2050, 2110, and 2130 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322