About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower to start the day on ideas that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement will be reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume. Russia said that negotiations are going well, but there has been no agreement yet and something could easily come up to derail the talks. That something might have hit yesterday on news that Russia had bombed Ukraine heavily during the day and that a couple of bombs had hit in Poland near the Ukraine border. Poland is a NATO member, so the act was a provocation for NATO. Russia denied the bombs were theirs, but no one believes that. NATO said this morning that the missile was most likely fired by Ukraine defend itself against the Russian bombing. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen in the reports last week but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see heavy snow. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Iraq bought 150,000 tons of Spring Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 816, 796, and 791 December, with resistance at 864, 8368, and 892 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 945, 938. And 917 December, with resistance at 982, 991, and 996 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 985, 993, and 1010 December. Support is at 955, 946, and 933 December, and resistance is at 993, 1020, and 1024 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. The Russia-Poland-Ukraine news had little effect on this market It seemed that the market found some Rice yesterday and now has enough for current needs so prices fell from the highs. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1790, 1805, and 1855 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 16
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.83 10.58 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.50 10.97 0.00
Brokens 9.79 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 54.28/14.78 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.31/10.41 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday. Russia bombed Poland with a couple of bombs while in the process of doing big damage by bombing Ukraine yesterday and futures markets of all kinds reacted. Crude Oil and the grains were most affected by the news. It is not known if Russia was provoking Poland and NATO and so far Russia denies the bombs were theirs. NATO sis this morning that it was probably fired by Ukraine trying to defend itself against the Russian bombing. Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market and USDA was expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year..
Overnight News: Mexico bought 1.866 million tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 661, 651, and 647 December, and resistance is at 675, 677 and 679 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 411, 426, and 435 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 376 December, and resistance is at 400, 410, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on news that Russia had bombed Poland with a couple f bombs while it dropped a lot of bombs on Ukraine. Russa has said the bombs were not theirs, but no one believes that. Poland is a NATO country so the risk of escalation is large, but for now things have turned more quiet. NATO said this morning that is was most likely that the Poland missile was fired by a Ukrainian gun defending the country against the Russians. News on Friday that China was relaxing Covid restriction supported the market on Friday. China will now require eight days in quarantine instead of two weeks or more.. Export demand for the US is heating up even with no new announcements made yesterday and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China was a very active buyer last week. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest. South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. Production potential is already being hurt in Argentina. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1433, 1428, and 1421 January, and resistance is at 1469, 1485, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 402.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 414.00 417.00, and 423.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7560, 7440, and 7360 December, with resistance at 7820, 7940, and 8060 December.

NOPA October soy crush rises to 184.464 million bushels, matching estimates – Reuters News
15-Nov-2022 11:02:30 AM
To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here
• NOTE: For a table detailing NOPA data by region, see Eikon page 0#SEED-US-STAT
By Julie Ingwersen
CHICAGO, Nov 15 (Reuters) – The monthly U.S. soybean crush rose in October and matched an average of analyst estimates, while soyoil stocks rose for the first time in eight months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.
NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 184.464 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from the 158.109 million bushels processed in September and up from the October 2021 crush of 183.993 million bushels.
NOPA’s crush figure of 184.464 million bushels exactly matched the average estimate from nine analysts in a Reuters survey. Analyst estimates ranged from 175.000 million to 191.343 million bushels, with a median of 185.000 million bushels.
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of Oct. 31 rose to 1.528 billion lbs, up from 1.459 billion lbs at the end of September but down from 1.834 billion lbs a year ago.
Soyoil supplies at the end of October were expected to have climbed to 1.535 billion lbs, according to the average of estimates gathered from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.425 billion to 1.700 billion lbs, with a median of 1.530 billion lbs.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher after the lower move yesterday. China has relaxed some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. The MPOB data released on Thursday that showed the largest stocks in three years as production improved more than exports did. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher yesterday along with Chicago and on the news that Russia had bombed Poland with a couple of bombs while bombarding Ukraine with a lot of bombs. Russia denies the bombs were theirs, butno one believs that. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions were much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed . Support is at 880.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 904.00, 907.00, and 912.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3900 February. Support is at 4040, 4000, and 3880 February, with resistance at 4200, 4360, and 4400 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today but snow and rain near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
260 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
260 Jan

December
225 Dec
235 Dec
160 Dec
260 Jan

January
160 Mar
183 Mar
135 Mar
235 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 874.90 -10.00 Jan 2023 up 1.70
Track Thunder Bay 929.60 35.00 Jan 2023 up 9.70
Track Vancouver 944.60 50.00 Jan 2023 up 9.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 947.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 947.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 957.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 952.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 950.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 955.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 855.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 770.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4050.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 236.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.539)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 88,717 lots, or 4.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 5,577 5,646 5,577 5,612 5,614 5,620 6 69,320 92,319
Mar-23 5,533 5,565 5,499 5,528 5,524 5,538 14 8,216 37,359
May-23 5,508 5,550 5,489 5,533 5,521 5,531 10 6,763 24,909
Jul-23 5,490 5,520 5,485 5,497 5,486 5,497 11 1,183 10,770
Sep-23 5,447 5,490 5,447 5,472 5,460 5,473 13 1,426 7,888
Nov-23 5,437 5,477 5,437 5,452 5,441 5,458 17 1,809 2,587
Corn
Turnover: 564,963 lots, or 16.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-23 2,836 2,855 2,822 2,828 2,849 2,836 -13 344,942 618,058
Mar-23 2,866 2,873 2,840 2,846 2,873 2,855 -18 100,090 432,021
May-23 2,898 2,908 2,882 2,885 2,906 2,894 -12 45,541 162,471
Jul-23 2,889 2,902 2,881 2,882 2,906 2,890 -16 47,890 220,385
Sep-23 2,899 2,903 2,886 2,887 2,908 2,894 -14 6,645 12,977
Nov-23 2,896 2,902 2,878 2,878 2,904 2,889 -15 19,855 20,744
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,112,117 lots, or 44.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 4,595 4,612 4,562 4,608 4,599 4,587 -12 7,083 24,415
Jan-23 4,136 4,187 4,124 4,169 4,155 4,154 -1 809,156 1,451,239
Mar-23 3,959 4,009 3,951 3,995 3,976 3,983 7 45,473 197,459
May-23 3,671 3,697 3,643 3,680 3,674 3,670 -4 206,308 635,308
Jul-23 3,624 3,655 3,611 3,638 3,633 3,632 -1 27,141 116,267
Aug-23 3,666 3,698 3,656 3,678 3,677 3,671 -6 3,080 66,692
Sep-23 3,634 3,656 3,621 3,642 3,641 3,636 -5 11,688 43,644
Nov-23 3,575 3,603 3,573 3,599 3,592 3,589 -3 2,188 5,686
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,085,248 lots, or 8.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 8,162 8,280 8,078 8,078 8,248 8,172 -76 1,870 1,571
Jan-23 8,104 8,268 8,072 8,078 8,214 8,162 -52 943,165 404,554
Feb-23 8,222 8,372 8,174 8,184 8,300 8,276 -24 14,252 80,235
Mar-23 8,278 8,420 8,226 8,242 8,348 8,330 -18 11,436 57,273
Apr-23 8,314 8,384 8,214 8,220 8,326 8,306 -20 2,384 40,658
May-23 8,200 8,298 8,138 8,146 8,258 8,212 -46 100,176 146,697
Jun-23 8,094 8,226 8,072 8,104 8,194 8,150 -44 5,308 27,616
Jul-23 8,056 8,152 8,008 8,036 8,144 8,082 -62 6,311 17,964
Aug-23 7,978 8,046 7,978 8,046 8,066 7,994 -72 4 52
Sep-23 7,930 8,000 7,902 7,902 8,014 7,942 -72 328 559
Oct-23 7,880 7,954 7,880 7,944 8,016 7,922 -94 13 41
Nov-23 7,904 7,904 7,904 7,904 7,982 7,904 -78 1 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 766,220 lots, or 70.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-22 9,542 9,744 9,542 9,674 9,498 9,630 132 1,485 4,105
Jan-23 9,108 9,298 9,100 9,188 9,128 9,206 78 665,281 406,012
Mar-23 8,848 9,018 8,848 8,912 8,924 8,950 26 8,186 77,765
May-23 8,666 8,750 8,640 8,646 8,698 8,694 -4 83,346 141,909
Jul-23 8,552 8,648 8,544 8,556 8,600 8,596 -4 4,522 45,568
Aug-23 8,528 8,606 8,506 8,508 8,548 8,556 8 1,482 27,806
Sep-23 8,476 8,546 8,452 8,460 8,508 8,496 -12 1,206 4,390
Nov-23 8,416 8,466 8,386 8,396 8,442 8,420 -22 712 1,136
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322