About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower as USDA raised production estimates last week and as Presidents Biden and Xi met in Bali. The meeting apparently produced a warning from Xi on Taiwan but little lese although world food security was discussed. Demand was left unchanged and ending stocks trended higher at 300,000 bales. China is making moves to shore up the housing sector in the country. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.64 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 71% harvested, from 62% last week, 64% last year, and 63% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.60, 100.20, and 125.00 December. Support is at 84.20, 80.80, and 79.60 December, with resistance of 89.30, 89.80 and 90.10 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 08, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 346,839
: Positions :
: 28,136 44,783 120,923 98,075 152,198 83,676 14,823 330,810 332,727: 16,029 14,112
: Changes from: November 1, 2022 (Change in open interest: -16,272) :
: -2,800 -7,536 -2,045 -14,915 -4,380 2,980 -1,751 -16,781 -15,712: 509 -559
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 12.9 34.9 28.3 43.9 24.1 4.3 95.4 95.9: 4.6 4.1
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 74 112 59 65 47 22 248 240:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday and the market has topped out on the daily charts. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production remain in place. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 195.00 and 183.00 January. Support is at 195.00, 191.00, and 187.00 January, with resistance at 204.00, 207.00, and 212.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 8, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,561 :
: Positions :
: 962 9,554 2,161 68 20 4,997 153 79 861 680 903 :
: Changes from: November 1, 2022 :
: -54 -77 -177 0 9 299 0 67 37 18 80 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.7 76.1 17.2 0.5 0.2 39.8 1.2 0.6 6.9 5.4 7.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 73 :
: 9 15 6 . . 27 . . 9 9 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday but held to the recent trading ranges. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.468 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 158.06 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 163.00, 161.00, and 158.00 December, and resistance is at 177.00, 183.00 and 186.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 January, and resistance is at 1840, 1880, and 1900 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 08, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 298,438
: Positions :
: 17,942 37,280 115,988 100,826 121,177 51,585 15,320 286,342 289,765: 12,097 8,673
: Changes from: November 1, 2022 (Change in open interest: 8,351) :
: 618 5,366 8,029 916 -2,105 -1,674 -2,585 7,890 8,705: 461 -354
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.0 12.5 38.9 33.8 40.6 17.3 5.1 95.9 97.1: 4.1 2.9
: Total Traders: 392 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 105 97 123 114 105 45 31 328 305:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, and trends are still up in both markets. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1940, 1890, and 1880 March and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2060 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 533.00, 531.00, and 520.00 March and resistance is at 542.00, 545.00, and 548.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 08, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 920,099
: Positions :
: 104,339 91,815 177,347 306,631 547,875 250,754 53,695 839,070 870,731: 81,029 49,368
: Changes from: November 1, 2022 (Change in open interest: 35,549) :
: 5,157 -9,309 3,725 1,580 43,825 14,395 -2,395 24,857 35,846: 10,692 -297
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 10.0 19.3 33.3 59.5 27.3 5.8 91.2 94.6: 8.8 5.4
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 52 78 70 74 43 19 218 195:
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DJ Sugar Market to Move to Surplus in 2022-23
By Yusuf Khan
The global sugar market is expected to move from deficit to surplus in 2022-23 with global production surging in the coming year.
The International Sugar Organization said in its quarterly report Tuesday that it expects to see a market surplus of 6.18 million metric tons in 2022-23, up from the expected deficit of 1.66 million tons in 2021-22.
Much of this stems from a huge bump in global production, with this expected to rise to 182.14 million tons in 2022-23–a new record and a 3.5% increase on the previous year. Market expectations have been that India and Brazil are likely to increase production levels compared to this year.
Meanwhile, consumption is expected to drift lower to 174.3 million tons from 175.9 million, the ISO said. Export availability, however, is expected to move up to 64.48 million tons from 62.86 million tons.
With global production expected to increase, the ISO said it expects prices to fall over the next year. Prices Tuesday stood at 20 cents a pound in New York for raw sugar, having moved up from 17 cents a pound at the end of September.
The ISO also added that global ethanol production is likely to rise to 111.1 billion liters up 2 billion from 2021-22, though consumption is estimated to rise by 2.1 billion liters to 106.6 billion liters. Much of this rise in production is to be led by India, however, the ISO said long-term demand for ethanol remains a sticking point because of electric-vehicle uptake in Europe.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and it looks like a correction from the big rally of last week is underway. Trends remain up in both markets and both markets re being supported by reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast ports. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.523 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2450 and 2380 December. Support is at 2470, 2450, and 2430 December, with resistance at 2520, 2580, and 2600 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1970, 1920, and 1870 December December. Support is at 1950, 1910, and 1880 December, with resistance at 2020, 2110, and 2130 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 08, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 345,141
: Positions :
: 55,518 67,513 90,409 130,444 142,946 56,162 35,114 332,533 335,982: 12,608 9,159
: Changes from: November 1, 2022 (Change in open interest: -31,960) :
: 2,975 -14,476 -13,305 -22,069 6,532 809 -9,554 -31,591 -30,804: -370 -1,156
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.1 19.6 26.2 37.8 41.4 16.3 10.2 96.3 97.3: 3.7 2.7
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 67 79 49 41 34 21 205 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Cocoa Markets Conceding to Ghana-Ivory Coast Price Pact — Market Talk
0705 GMT – The recent market reaction to warnings from Ghana and Ivory Coast about blocking exporters unwilling to pay the $400-a-ton surcharge on cocoa purchases indicates that buyers are conceding to demands from the world’s top growers, Oxford Economics Africa says. Cocoa prices have risen to six-month highs following the warnings, indicating that buyers are bending to the price pact meant to improve farmers’ earnings in the two producers that account for more than 60% of global supplies of the commodity. “Markets’ reaction to these warnings, in the form of a sharp jump in prices, suggests that these threats are seen as credible,” Oxford says. “This will be key to locking in buyers for the 2022/23 main harvest and to safeguard and promote cocoa farmers’ welfare.” (nicholas.bariyo@wsj.com; @Nicholasbariyo)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322