About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to a little higher as USDA raised production estimates in its reports on Wednesday. Demand was left unchanged and ending stocks trended higher at 300,000 bales. Economic data and production and supply estimates are coming out this week and the buyers hesitated to buy a lot of Cotton. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are now mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 87.56 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.60, 100.20, and 125.00 December. Support is at 84.20, 80.80, and 79.60 December, with resistance of 89.20, 89.80 and 90.10 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 204.00, 202.00, and 199.00 January, with resistance at 222.00, 228.00, and 234.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply lower. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.454 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 154.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 159.00 and 144.00 December. Support is at 163.00, 161.00, and 158.00 December, and resistance is at 177.00, 183.00 and 186.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 January, and resistance is at 1840, 1880, and 1900 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/08/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
125,524 76,801 55,261 1,245 3,081 2,350
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 61.2% 44.0% 1.0% 2.5% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
135 42 33 6 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,040 29,556 4,530 6,204 1,793 23,402
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 23.5% 3.6% 4.9% 1.4% 18.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 33 13 15 7 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,952 5,551
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 4.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed yesterday, with nearby months holding firm on ideas of tight current supplies. Trends are still up in both markets. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1970 March. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1840 March and resistance is at 1940, 1970, and 2000 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 526.00 and 539.00 March. Support is at 520.00, 513.00, and 507.00 March and resistance is at 536.00, 539.00, and 542.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/08/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
90,031 39,657 68,829 6,446 3,766 2,364
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 44.0% 76.5% 7.2% 4.2% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
122 37 38 9 3 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,445 1,582 4,195 2,431 1,401 3,400
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.0% 1.8% 4.7% 2.7% 1.6% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 5 17 7 8 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,093 4,494
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.0% 5.0%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher again yesterday but London didn’t as the US Dollar moved sharply lower. Trends remain up in both markets and both markets re being supported by reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast ports. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.524 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2450 December, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2630 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2060 December. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 2000 December, with resistance at 2100, 2130, and 2160 December.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/08/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
362,431 155,012 238,051 26,102 30,740 23,211
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.8% 65.7% 7.2% 8.5% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 50 50 14 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
80,064 6,530 12,293 14,868 3,918 45,926
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.1% 1.8% 3.4% 4.1% 1.1% 12.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 10 24 8 16 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,955 1,762
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.5%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322