About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower last week in part on follow through selling in response to the USDA report and in part on ideas that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement will be reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume The US Dollar was sharply lower last week and trends have turned down for now on the daily charts. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see heavy snow. Temperatures will average nelow normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 762 December. Support is at 796, 791, and 783 December, with resistance at 834, 864, and 868 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 882 December. Support is at 915, 896. and 886 December, with resistance at 958, 972, and 982 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 929 December. Support is at 923, 907, and 886 December, and resistance is at 953, 961, and 973 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher last week and closed at new highs for the move. USDA on Wednesday cut export demand by 4.0 million cwt but increased domestic demand by 1.0 million cwt for an overall increase of 2.0 million cwt. The supply side showed reduced yields and production. The Dollar Index was sharply lower on Thursday and Friday and trends have turned down for now on the daily charts. The Dollar Index lost about 4,500 points in the two days. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Some rain has fallen in the basin in the last week so barge traffic on the Mississippi might get better. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1805 and 1850 January. Support is at 1770, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1805, 1855, and 1867 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week, with Corn lower on selling from the lack of export demand. USDA increased yields and production a little and increased demand a little to produce only a minor increase in ending stocks estimates. Domestic demand was increased while export demand was left unchanged. Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market and USDA was expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The US Dollar index was sharply lower last week and lost about 4,500 points.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year and was slow in the weekly export sales report.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 649 and 623 December. Support is at 653, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 662, 672 and 674 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 376, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 388, 395, and 400 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on Friday and mixed for the week, wuth Soybeans and Soybean Oil higher and Soybean Meal lower. News on Friday that China was relaxing Covid restriction supported the market on Friday. China will now require eight days in quarantine instead of two weeks or more.. The US Dollar Index lost 1,500 points Friday and 2,500 points on Thursday for a dramatic turn around. USDA increased yields in its reports on Wednesday and left demand alone. Ending stocks were higher than the trade anticipated at 220 million bushels. Export demand for the US is heating up and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a very active buyer this week. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1428, 1421, and 1409 January, and resistance is at 1459, 1469, and 1485 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00, 397,00, and 389,00 December. Support is at 404.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 414.00 417.00, and 423.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7610, 7440, and 7360 December, with resistance at 7710, 7820, and 7940 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher on Friday and little changed for the week. Futures rebounded from lower levels on Friday on news that China had relaxed some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. The MPOB data released on Thursday that showed the largest stocks in three years as production improved more than exports did. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was closed on Friday yesterday but was lower for the week as the US Dollar moved sharply lower. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions were much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed . Support is at 880.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 906.00, 912.00, and 916.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4130 and 3890 January. Support is at 4190, 4090, and 3970 January, with resistance at 4350, 4530, and 4850 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
260 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
260 Jan

December
225 Dec
235 Dec
160 Dec
260 Jan

January
160 Mar
183 Mar
135 Mar
235 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Nov. 10, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 881.50 -10.00 Jan 23 up 7.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 918.20 35.00 Jan 23 dn 8.30
Basis: Vancouver 933.20 50.00 Jan 23 dn 8.30
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 957.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 962.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 972.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 960.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 965.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 975.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 780.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4050.00 -170.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 232.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.593)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 153,249 lots, or 8.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 5,745 5,690 5,745 55 0 0
Jan-23 5,680 5,720 5,567 5,593 5,677 5,635 -42 119,239 101,632
Mar-23 5,589 5,606 5,497 5,514 5,578 5,549 -29 18,371 39,020
May-23 5,563 5,602 5,502 5,511 5,563 5,542 -21 12,996 23,973
Jul-23 5,515 5,544 5,468 5,481 5,527 5,509 -18 1,400 10,805
Sep-23 5,509 5,513 5,440 5,455 5,496 5,473 -23 1,243 7,419
Corn
Turnover: 750,462 lots, or 21.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,841 2,870 2,841 2,870 2,840 2,834 -6 4 0
Jan-23 2,885 2,891 2,848 2,851 2,880 2,870 -10 516,571 604,686
Mar-23 2,903 2,912 2,872 2,873 2,902 2,892 -10 117,312 426,073
May-23 2,935 2,945 2,904 2,906 2,936 2,925 -11 56,505 148,594
Jul-23 2,936 2,946 2,900 2,909 2,934 2,925 -9 55,302 228,565
Sep-23 2,942 2,944 2,908 2,912 2,939 2,926 -13 4,768 9,120
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,531,737 lots, or 63.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,074 5,150 4,981 4,981 5,068 4,999 -69 215 0
Dec-22 4,623 4,677 4,555 4,579 4,639 4,608 -31 50,000 26,482
Jan-23 4,226 4,244 4,136 4,163 4,249 4,191 -58 1,156,722 1,517,003
Mar-23 4,059 4,063 3,963 3,979 4,076 4,013 -63 67,483 193,942
May-23 3,739 3,753 3,656 3,672 3,761 3,706 -55 227,084 600,302
Jul-23 3,698 3,708 3,620 3,637 3,716 3,670 -46 15,582 116,239
Aug-23 3,726 3,739 3,660 3,680 3,744 3,699 -45 3,647 66,733
Sep-23 3,672 3,692 3,620 3,637 3,694 3,656 -38 11,004 41,282
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,197,525 lots, or 10.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,340 8,386 8,316 8,316 8,282 8,326 44 519 0
Dec-22 8,572 8,650 8,244 8,254 8,452 8,534 82 9,397 8,137
Jan-23 8,532 8,628 8,204 8,220 8,418 8,438 20 1,040,783 421,911
Feb-23 8,556 8,668 8,276 8,296 8,460 8,530 70 13,872 78,410
Mar-23 8,604 8,710 8,336 8,354 8,508 8,566 58 8,786 55,180
Apr-23 8,616 8,680 8,324 8,336 8,478 8,532 54 2,630 40,233
May-23 8,512 8,598 8,258 8,268 8,424 8,444 20 110,300 142,230
Jun-23 8,448 8,520 8,186 8,202 8,326 8,414 88 6,253 27,853
Jul-23 8,370 8,442 8,126 8,148 8,254 8,318 64 4,637 16,284
Aug-23 8,302 8,338 8,078 8,078 8,246 8,156 -90 21 53
Sep-23 8,230 8,264 8,010 8,038 8,132 8,102 -30 309 529
Oct-23 8,184 8,208 8,118 8,118 8,140 8,156 16 18 27
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 827,563 lots, or 75.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 10,022 9,830 10,022 192 0 0
Dec-22 9,712 9,796 9,460 9,504 9,594 9,626 32 11,376 8,147
Jan-23 9,306 9,368 9,078 9,110 9,248 9,222 -26 706,187 428,750
Mar-23 9,050 9,104 8,880 8,908 9,006 9,018 12 10,724 77,519
May-23 8,868 8,868 8,654 8,670 8,792 8,786 -6 91,791 136,568
Jul-23 8,732 8,752 8,558 8,572 8,670 8,700 30 3,856 44,839
Aug-23 8,732 8,732 8,516 8,548 8,644 8,648 4 2,457 27,490
Sep-23 8,608 8,666 8,466 8,494 8,600 8,572 -28 1,172 4,294
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322