About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 10
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Nov. 6, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Wheat Durum Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2654.0 777.9 249.7 548.6 49.6 1492.2 308.9 115.1 7460.4
Week Ago 2833.2 782.6 269.1 454.4 48.8 1350.6 320.7 89.8 7207.4
Year Ago 2339.2 847.5 298.7 525.5 75.1 1689.8 373.1 90.8 6966.0
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 428.9 147.7 60.3 177.9 2.9 450.1 52.1 14.2 1472.1
Week Ago 441.4 96.7 53.2 166.8 2.6 417.0 47.0 7.9 1357.8
To Date 6720.6 1480.5 762.2 1588.0 32.1 5222.1 1132.5 94.4 18403.9
Year Ago 4767.5 1066.8 689.1 2005.5 83.5 5468.3 991.0 115.9 16457.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 465.5 140.7 0.0 54.4 0.0 201.2 25.3 40.6 1393.6
Week Ago 483.4 116.3 0.0 40.2 0.0 253.1 117.7 3.0 1429.7
To Date 6603.9 1389.0 43.6 792.4 0.5 2207.5 889.0 174.7 14694.9
Year Ago 4854.9 1027.2 102.7 1182.9 15.1 2379.3 686.4 94.6 12895.0
EXPORTS
This Week 488.8 179.2 41.7 59.8 0.5 201.6 11.9 23.2 1295.7
Week Ago 424.4 101.5 14.9 35.8 0.9 129.9 21.5 0.0 1110.6
To Date 5116.8 1002.7 398.7 816.0 10.9 1802.1 737.1 157.9 11417.8
Year Ago 3422.0 928.5 454.0 969.9 17.4 1803.7 676.5 65.1 9845.5
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 117.6 48.6 20.9 35.0 1.6 177.5 7.7 22.4 480.6
Week Ago 100.5 4.4 22.5 32.8 1.1 214.9 7.7 15.9 471.6
To Date 1199.4 185.5 246.1 439.9 17.5 2563.9 83.8 379.8 5698.1
Year Ago 1319.8 86.8 219.1 546.5 15.3 2631.1 81.4 270.5 5722.6
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ U.N. Warns of Food-Security Risks as Global Food Imports Approach $2 Trillion
By Yusuf Khan
The United Nations is warning of significant risks to food security around the world, especially in poorer countries, as soaring food and fertilizer prices place further pressure on governments to secure supplies.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in its latest report Friday that the global food import bill is estimated to rise to an all-time high of $1.94 trillion in 2022, up 10% from last year, pushed higher by concerns around supply from war, climate change and economic instability.
“Worryingly, many economically vulnerable countries are paying more while receiving less food,” the UN FAO said in its Food Outlook report, referring to worsening conditions for importing countries.
The new figure shows how much more nations are paying for their food this year, with a slowing global economy and depreciating currencies against the dollar adding to strains around food security. Countries are unable to import as much food as in prior years amid higher prices.
The UN FAO said that increased climate variability and geopolitical tensions were two of the biggest catalysts to food-security worries.
Devastating heatwaves in Europe severely hampered grain output, with corn production dropping to a 15-year low due to subsequent droughts. Flooding in Pakistan and China lowered rice-crop yields, while uneven weather patterns in the U.S. hampered wheat output.
This comes on top of the significant disruptions to Black Sea grain and fertilizers, with cultivation and exports hugely damaged by the war in Ukraine and the subsequent strain on shipping in the region. The UN FAO said that world wheat trade is expected to fall 1% year-on-year because of a lack of exports coming from the region, as well as increased protectionism from India on domestic supplies.
One of the biggest issues that emerged from the war in Ukraine was that poorer countries in the Middle East and North Africa were most likely to be affected. These have very high import dependencies and have been further weakened by depreciating currencies against the dollar.
Fertilizer production has also been a major concern. The UN FAO said that the world agricultural input import bill is forecast to reach a new high of $424 billion in 2022, representing a hike of 48% in costs compared to 2021, with 86% of this down to higher energy and fertilizer prices.
The UN FAO said it is likely that poorer countries would feel the strain of this the most, and lower application of fertilizer would take place–lowering productivity and total output. It added that “high world fertilizer prices are likely to extend into 2023, with negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security,” going forward.
Food prices have started to settle after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, spurred by the war in Ukraine, with the UN FAO’s price index in October reading at 135.9 points, down from 159.7 in March.
However, the October reading was largely unchanged from September because prices for grains jumped during the month on worries over the security of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, causing markets to remain volatile. The UN FAO’s cereal price index stood at 152.3 points in October, 11% higher than a year ago.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 14, 2022 186 Nov 08, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower yesterday in part ob follow through selling in response to the USDA report and in part on ideas that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement will be reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume The US Dollar was sharply lower yesterday and trends have turned down for now on the daily charts. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see heavy snow. Temperatures will average nelow normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 762 December. Support is at 791, 783, and 774 December, with resistance at 834, 864, and 868 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 882 December. Support is at 915, 896. and 886 December, with resistance at 943, 958, and 972 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 929 December. Support is at 923, 907, and 886 December, and resistance is at 953, 961, and 973 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher and closed at new highs for the move. USDA on Wednesday cut export demand by 4.0 million cwt but increased domestic demand by 1.0 million cwt for an overall increase of 2.0 million cwt. The supply side showed reduced yields and production. The Dollar Index was sharply lower yesterday and trends have turned down for now on the daily charts. Some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Some rain has fallen in the basin in the last week so barge traffic on the Mississippi might get better. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1805 and 1850 January. Support is at 1770, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1805, 1855, and 1867 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday and Oats were also lower on selling from the lack of export demand. USDA increased yields and production a little and cut demand a little to produce only a minor increase in ending stocks estimates. Domestic demand was increased while export demand was cut.. Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market as USDA is expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its coming WASDE reports. The US Dollar index was sharply lower yesterday and lost about 2,500 points.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year and was slow in the weekly export sales report.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 649 and 623 December. Support is at 647, 643, and 637 December, and resistance is at 662, 672 and 674 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 376, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 388, 395, and 400 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday. The US Dollar Index lost 2,500 points yesterday but this did not help Soybeans or export ideas.. USDA increased yields in its reports on Wednesday and left demand alone. Ending stocks were higher than the trade anticipated. Export demand for the US is heating up and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a very active buyer this week. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1409, 1402, and 1391 January, and resistance is at 1447, 1459, and 1469 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00, 397,00, and 389,00 December. Support is at 404.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 414.00 417.00, and 423.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7440, 7360, and 7260 December, with resistance at 7710, 7820, and 7940 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today on the MPOB data that showed the largest stocks in three yars. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower yesterday along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and a weaker US Dollar. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed . Support is at 880.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 906.00, 912.00, and 916.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4090, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4270, 4350, and 4530 January.

DJ Malaysia Nov. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 420,477 Tons, Up 12.72%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-10 period are estimated up 12.72% on month at 420,477 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Nov 1-10 Oct 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 139,240 124,495
RBD Palm Oil 31,777 18,650
RBD Palm Stearin 49,355 57,360
Crude Palm Oil 77,540 42,000
Total* 420,477 373,030
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
260 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
260 Jan

December
225 Dec
235 Dec
160 Dec
260 Jan

January
160 Mar
183 Mar
135 Mar
235 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Nov. 10, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 881.50 -10.00 Jan 23 up 7.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 918.20 35.00 Jan 23 dn 8.30
Basis: Vancouver 933.20 50.00 Jan 23 dn 8.30
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 987.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 992.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 995.00 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 987.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 990.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 995.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 997.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 875.00 +45.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 795.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4220.00 +140.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 236.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.625)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 137,658 lots, or 7.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 5,690 5,690 5,690 0 0 0
Jan-23 5,647 5,696 5,647 5,680 5,652 5,677 25 102,155 101,088
Mar-23 5,588 5,596 5,558 5,592 5,558 5,578 20 16,538 38,610
May-23 5,582 5,582 5,550 5,571 5,558 5,563 5 13,055 22,479
Jul-23 5,518 5,544 5,510 5,533 5,519 5,527 8 3,249 10,656
Sep-23 5,483 5,519 5,473 5,504 5,482 5,496 14 2,661 7,378
Corn
Turnover: 551,642 lots, or 15.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 2,840 2,840 2,840 0 0 4,720
Jan-23 2,870 2,889 2,862 2,881 2,872 2,880 8 334,949 609,956
Mar-23 2,895 2,909 2,882 2,903 2,891 2,902 11 110,393 417,868
May-23 2,935 2,944 2,922 2,937 2,927 2,936 9 41,929 141,214
Jul-23 2,929 2,941 2,925 2,936 2,929 2,934 5 61,106 226,527
Sep-23 2,934 2,946 2,930 2,938 2,934 2,939 5 3,265 8,968
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,686,995 lots, or 70.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,100 5,100 5,000 5,000 5,092 5,068 -24 25 5,004
Dec-22 4,670 4,701 4,602 4,625 4,659 4,639 -20 45,203 29,567
Jan-23 4,278 4,304 4,210 4,234 4,284 4,249 -35 1,257,305 1,622,936
Mar-23 4,101 4,133 4,050 4,060 4,126 4,076 -50 45,784 198,319
May-23 3,801 3,807 3,732 3,743 3,800 3,761 -39 298,882 581,773
Jul-23 3,742 3,758 3,689 3,698 3,756 3,716 -40 17,177 116,382
Aug-23 3,778 3,788 3,719 3,737 3,786 3,744 -42 3,998 66,704
Sep-23 3,733 3,742 3,660 3,680 3,734 3,694 -40 18,621 39,418
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,358,644 lots, or 11.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,296 8,296 8,224 8,224 8,088 8,282 194 9 3,005
Dec-22 8,322 8,638 8,304 8,588 8,298 8,452 154 10,501 9,640
Jan-23 8,300 8,610 8,262 8,554 8,260 8,418 158 1,169,945 424,555
Feb-23 8,334 8,658 8,316 8,596 8,310 8,460 150 14,989 77,382
Mar-23 8,384 8,708 8,358 8,634 8,350 8,508 158 11,997 54,714
Apr-23 8,370 8,682 8,344 8,612 8,338 8,478 140 3,629 39,962
May-23 8,296 8,598 8,262 8,528 8,252 8,424 172 134,100 131,339
Jun-23 8,220 8,518 8,194 8,452 8,176 8,326 150 7,371 28,030
Jul-23 8,108 8,448 8,108 8,374 8,106 8,254 148 5,697 15,493
Aug-23 8,200 8,290 8,200 8,288 8,034 8,246 212 7 63
Sep-23 8,002 8,266 7,974 8,200 7,966 8,132 166 387 610
Oct-23 8,052 8,208 8,052 8,150 7,930 8,140 210 12 14
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,179,091 lots, or 10.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 9,830 9,830 9,830 0 0 1,806
Dec-22 9,598 9,784 9,470 9,748 9,598 9,594 -4 8,332 11,740
Jan-23 9,238 9,402 9,146 9,350 9,256 9,248 -8 997,877 415,607
Mar-23 8,954 9,138 8,926 9,096 8,954 9,006 52 13,878 76,133
May-23 8,720 8,922 8,692 8,852 8,726 8,792 66 142,147 126,888
Jul-23 8,600 8,802 8,572 8,748 8,606 8,670 64 10,198 44,794
Aug-23 8,568 8,764 8,544 8,704 8,572 8,644 72 3,931 27,334
Sep-23 8,522 8,720 8,492 8,644 8,526 8,600 74 2,728 4,109
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322