About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower as USDA raised production estimates in its reports yesterday. Demand was left unchanged and ending stocks trended higher at 300,000 bales. Economic data and production and supply estimates are coming out this week and the buyers hesitated to buy a lot of Cotton. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are now mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.8 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 145,900 bales this year and 11,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 600 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.60, 100.20, and 125.00 December. Support is at 84.20, 80.80, and 79.60 December, with resistance of 89.20, 89.80 and 90.10 December.

Cottonseed Production – United States: 2021 and Forecasted November 1, 2022
—————————————————————————–
: Production
State :———————————————————–
: 2021 : 2022 1/
—————————————————————————–
: 1,000 tons
:
United States …: 5,323.0 4,260.0
—————————————————————————–
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2021 and
Forecasted November 1, 2022
——————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:————————————————————————–
Type and State : : : : 2022 : :
: 2021 : 2022 : 2021 :———————–: 2021 : 2022
: : : : October 1 :November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————–
:— 1,000 acres — ———- pounds ———- 1,000 bales 2/
Upland :
United States …:10,148.5 7,711.5 813 831 844 17,191.0 13,561.0
American Pima :
United States …: 123.8 164.5 1,287 1,366 1,371 332.0 470.0
All :
United States …:10,272.3 7,876.0 819 842 855 17,523.0 14,031.0
——————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.

World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. Bales
================================================================================
Total Total Ending
Commodity Output Supply Trade 2/ Use 3/ Stocks
================================================================================

World
2020/21 111.47 209.86 48.73 123.13 86.75
2021/22 (Est.) 115.76 202.51 42.76 117.37 85.64
2022/23 (Proj.)
Oct 118.05 203.31 43.61 115.60 87.87
Nov 116.43 202.07 43.20 114.95 87.27
United States
2020/21 14.61 21.86 16.35 2.40 3.15
2021/22 (Est.) 17.52 20.68 14.62 2.55 3.75
2022/23 (Proj.)
Oct 13.81 17.57 12.50 2.30 2.80
Nov 14.03 17.79 12.50 2.30 3.00
Foreign 4/
2020/21 96.86 188.00 32.38 120.73 83.60
2021/22 (Est.) 98.24 181.84 28.14 114.82 81.89
2022/23 (Proj.)
Oct 104.24 185.74 31.11 113.30 85.07
Nov 102.40 184.28 30.70 112.65 84.27
================================================================================
WASDE – 630 – 10 November 2022

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 12.09 11.22 13.79 13.79
Harvested 8.22 10.27 7.88 7.88
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 853 819 842 855
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.75 3.75
Production 14.61 17.52 13.81 14.03
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 21.86 20.68 17.57 17.79
Domestic Use 2.40 2.55 2.30 2.30
Exports, Total 16.35 14.62 12.50 12.50
Use, Total 18.75 17.17 14.80 14.80
Unaccounted 2/ -0.04 -0.24 -0.03 -0.01
Ending Stocks 3.15 3.75 2.80 3.00
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 66.3 91.4 90.0 85.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 630 – 18 November 2022

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2022/23 Proj.
World
Oct 85.26 118.05 43.62 115.60 43.61 -0.15 87.87
Nov 85.64 116.43 43.22 114.95 43.20 -0.13 87.27
World Less China
Oct 47.95 90.05 34.92 79.10 43.56 -0.15 50.40
Nov 48.33 88.43 34.72 78.45 43.13 -0.13 50.03
United States
Oct 3.75 13.81 0.01 2.30 12.50 -0.03 2.80
Nov 3.75 14.03 0.01 2.30 12.50 -0.01 3.00
Total Foreign
Oct 81.51 104.24 43.62 113.30 31.11 -0.12 85.07
Nov 81.89 102.40 43.22 112.65 30.70 -0.12 84.27
Major Exporters 4/
Oct 32.03 60.25 2.25 32.66 27.00 -0.17 35.04
Nov 32.41 59.12 2.30 32.66 26.57 -0.17 34.77
Major Importers 8/
Oct 46.70 40.74 39.15 76.60 2.70 0.06 47.24
Nov 46.70 40.03 38.70 75.95 2.72 0.06 46.70
================================================================================
WASDE – 630 – 28 November 2022

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease has hurt production. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get heavy rains. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 210.00, 204.00, and 202.00 January, with resistance at 222.00, 228.00, and 234.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday as the weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and as supplies available to the market keep increasing. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. The spreads in New York are bullish, implying that supplies are less than demand for right now and that prices should be higher. However, certified stocks increased again yesterday even though they remain a low levels over all. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.441 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 154.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 159.00 and 144.00 December. Support is at 164.00, 161.00, and 158.00 December, and resistance is at 175.00, 177.00 and 183.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1670 January. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 January, and resistance is at 1840, 1880, and 1900 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday on ideas of tight current supplies. Trends are up in both markets. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are now selling into the world market and have been aggressively looking to sign sales contracts. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1970 March. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1840 March and resistance is at 1940, 1970, and 2000 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 526.00 and 539.00 March. Support is at 520.00, 513.00, and 507.00 March and resistance is at 524.00, 529.00, and 536.00 March.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Up 85% in 2H of October at 31.5M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of October, as more mills continued operations in the period compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 31.5 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 85% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Thursday. They produced 2.1 million tons of sugar, up 145.4%, and made 1.6 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 49%.
The production mix for the second half of October was 48.5% sugar to 51.5% ethanol, compared with 37% sugar and 63% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
A drought last year hurt the center-south sugar crop, leading many mills to close earlier than normal in 2021 because of a lack of raw material, Unica said. There were 208 mills still operating as of Nov. 1 this year, compared with 128 mills last year, according to the group.
In the period from April 1 through Oct. 31, mills in the region crushed 490.2 million tons of cane, down 2.9% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 3.1% to 30.3 million tons, and ethanol output declined 2.7% to 24.4 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Oct. 31 was 45.9% sugar to 54.1% ethanol, compared with 45.3% sugar and 54.7% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

Sugarbeet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2021 and
Forecasted November 1, 2022
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2022 : :
: 2021 : 2022 : 2021 :————————-: 2021 : 2022
: : : : October 1 : November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: — 1,000 acres — ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
United States : 1,107.6 1,149.1 33.2 28.8 29.1 36,751 33,462
——————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2021 and Forecasted November 1, 2022
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2022 : :
: 2021 : 2022 : 2021 :————————-: 2021 : 2022
: : : : October 1 : November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
United States : 935.2 923.5 35.1 37.1 37.1 32,838 34,284
——————————————————————————————
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1618 1705 1773 1814
Production 2/ 9233 9135 9154 9086
Beet Sugar 5092 5155 5106 4994
Cane Sugar 4141 3979 4048 4091
Florida 2090 1933 1968 1989
Louisiana 1918 1923 1984 2006
Texas 134 124 96 96
Imports 3221 3646 3610 3441
TRQ 3/ 1749 1579 1691 1691
Other Program 4/ 292 298 250 250
Non-program 1180 1769 1669 1500
Mexico 968 1379 1619 1425
High-tier tariff/other 212 390 50 75
Total Supply 14072 14485 14537 14341
Exports 49 29 35 35
Deliveries 12277 12578 12630 12605
Food 12161 12470 12525 12500
Other 5/ 116 107 105 105
Miscellaneous 40 65 0 0
Total Use 12367 12671 12665 12640
Ending Stocks 1705 1814 1872 1701
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.8 14.3 14.8 13.5
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar
2021/22 Est.
Oct 1053 6185 50 4547 1794 947
Nov 1053 6185 31 4629 1676 964
2022/23 Proj.
Oct 947 5900 50 4547 1403 947
Nov 964 5900 35 4701 1219 979
================================================================================
WASDE – 630 – 17 November 2022

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday. Trends remain up in both markets and both markets re being supported by reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast ports. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 5.537 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2450, and 2430 December, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2630 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2060 December. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 2000 December, with resistance at 2100, 2130, and 2160 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322