About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Nov 9
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.

Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
22/23 21/22 20/21: 22/23 21/22 20/21: 22/23 21/22 20/21
Soybeans 220.0 274.0 257.0:169.14 154.02 165.00:390.53 355.59 368.52
Brazil na na na: 89.50 79.36 81.65:152.00 127.00 139.50
Argentina na na na: 7.20 2.86 5.20: 49.50 43.90 46.20
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.07: 18.40 16.40 19.60
Soyoil 1,859 1,999 2,131: 12.66 12.18 12.61: 61.87 59.32 59.23
Corn 1,182 1,377 1,235:182.74 201.83 182.60: 1,168 1,217 1,129
China na na na: 0.02 0.00 0.00:274.00 272.55 260.67
Argentina na na na: 41.00 36.50 40.94: 55.00 51.50 52.00
S.Africa na na na: 3.40 3.20 3.73: 16.70 16.30 16.95
Cotton(a) 3.00 3.75 3.15: 43.20 42.76 48.73:116.43 115.76 111.47
All Wheat 571 669 845:208.65 202.84 203.33:782.68 779.44 774.53
China na na na: 0.90 0.88 0.76:138.00 136.95 134.25
European
Union na na na: 35.00 31.90 29.74:134.30 138.29 126.69
Canada na na na: 26.00 15.13 26.43: 35.00 22.30 35.44
Argentina na na na: 10.00 16.25 11.53: 15.50 22.15 17.64
Australia na na na: 26.00 27.53 23.77: 34.50 36.35 31.92
Russia na na na: 42.00 33.00 39.10: 91.00 75.16 85.35
Ukraine na na na: 11.00 18.84 16.85: 20.50 33.01 25.42
Sorghum 24.0 53.0 20.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 65.0 42.0 71.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 30.0 31.0 38.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 36.1 39.7 43.7: 52.83 55.98 50.93:503.69 515.09 509.32

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2022 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Wednesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn Production 13,930.0 13,893 13,766-14,109 13,895
Corn Yield 172.3 171.9 171.0-174.5 171.9
Harvested Acres 80.8 80.8 80.7-80.9 80.8
Soybean Production 4,346.0 4,324 4,261-4,413 4,313
Soybean Yield 50.2 49.9 49.2-50.9 49.8
Harvested Acres 86.6 86.6 86.5-86.8 86.6
****
U.S. 2022-23 Stockpiles (millions)
Wednesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 1,182.0 1,212 1,050-1,390 1,172
Soybeans 220.0 215 185-296 200
Wheat 571.0 577 541-600 576
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2021-22
Wednesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 307.7 307.1 306.9-307.1 307.1
Soybeans 94.7 92.4 92.4- 92.6 92.4
Wheat 276.3 276.0 275.9-276.0 276.0
2022-23
Wednesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 300.8 300.6 289.0-306.0 301.2
Soybeans 102.2 100.9 99.0-104.0 100.5
Wheat 267.8 266.7 264.7-268.5 267.5

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 10
For the week ended Nov 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 322.5 0.0 12493.9 13273.9 3527.3 24.0
hrw 117.6 0.0 3470.5 5219.8 873.6 6.3
srw 14.0 0.0 2179.0 1916.1 502.5 6.6
hrs 77.3 0.0 3694.8 3609.5 1157.9 10.8
white 113.7 0.0 3010.4 2398.7 931.7 0.3
durum 0.0 0.0 139.4 129.7 61.7 0.0
corn 265.3 0.0 14729.7 32075.7 10327.6 311.0
soybeans 794.8 0.0 33092.6 33223.4 20449.6 0.0
soymeal 170.2 -0.2 4140.2 4960.9 3320.9 2.0
soyoil 2.7 0.0 32.3 144.3 24.7 0.6
upland cotton 145.8 11.4 8775.9 8636.8 6001.9 1112.7
pima cotton 0.6 0.0 104.5 305.9 80.8 0.9
sorghum 30.0 0.0 353.9 3278.5 307.4 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 14.0 30.1 10.1 0.0
rice 37.5 0.0 641.2 1150.9 258.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in part in response to the USDA reports but mostly on ideas that a new Russia-Ukraine export agreement will be reached and exports from both countries will be likely and will likely increase in volume The US Dollar was sharply higher yesterday as well and this hurt demand ideas. A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks was seen but the increase in ending stocks was only 10 million bushels and smaller than expected. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 798 and 762 December. Support is at 800, 791, and 783 December, with resistance at 834, 864, and 868 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 882 December. Support is at 925, 915, and 896 December, with resistance at 943, 958, and 972 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 929 December. Support is at 933, 928, and 907 December, and resistance is at 953, 961, and 973 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher and closed at new highs for the move. USDA cut export demand by 4.0 million cwt but increased domestic demand by 1.0 million cwt for an overall increase of 2.0 million cwt. The supply side showed reduced yields and production. Some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Some rain has fallen in the basin in the last week so barge traffic on the Mississippi might get better. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1815 and 1850 January. Support is at 1770, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1805, 1855, and 1867 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday and Oats were higher on selling from the lack of export demand. USDA increased yields and production a little and cut demand a little to produce only a minor increase in ending stocks estimates. Domestic demand was increased while export demand was cut.. Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market as USDA is expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its WASDE reports.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year and was slow in the weekly export sales report.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 209,931 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 649 and 623 December. Support is at 658, 654, and 632 December, and resistance is at 674, 679, and 686 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 376, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 388, 395, and 400 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday. Soybean Meal was lower. USDA increased yields in its reports yesterday and left demand alone. Ending stocks were higher than the trade anticipated. Export demand for the US is heating up and the new demand could not come at a better time.. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China, but China has been a very active buyer this week. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1428, 1423, and 1409 January, and resistance is at 1469, 1485, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 414.00, 407.00, and 404.00 December, and resistance is at 425.00 431.00, and 441.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7440, 7360, and 7260 December, with resistance at 7600, 7710, and 7820 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today on the MPOB data that showed the largest stocks in three yars. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher yesterday along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and a weaker Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed . Support is at 882.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 906.00, 912.00, and 916.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4530, 4850, and 5030 January.

DJ Malaysia’s October Palm Oil Exports 1.50M Tons; Up 5.7%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 5.7% on month at 1.50 million metric tons in October, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the October crop data and revised numbers for September, issued by MPOB:
October September Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,813,591 1,770,441 Up 2.44%
Palm Oil Exports 1,503,779 1,423,195 Up 5.66%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 94,851 98,001 Dn 3.21%
Palm Oil Imports 66,349 132,303 Dn 49.85%
Closing Stocks 2,403,719 2,317,020 Up 3.74%
Crude Palm Oil 1,311,103 1,277,511 Up 2.63%
Processed Palm Oil 1,092,616 1,039,509 Up 5.11%

DJ Malaysia November 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Up 13.1%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the November 1-10 period are estimated up 13.1% on month at 408,867 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
November 1-10 October 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 118,460 94,592
RBD Palm Oil 30,767 19,250
RBD Palm Stearin 42,205 44,700
Crude Palm Oil 89,220 57,000
Total* 408,867 361,602
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia Nov. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 420,477 Tons, Up 12.72%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Nov. 1-10 period are estimated up 12.72% on month at 420,477 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Nov 1-10 Oct 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 139,240 124,495
RBD Palm Oil 31,777 18,650
RBD Palm Stearin 49,355 57,360
Crude Palm Oil 77,540 42,000
Total* 420,477 373,030
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
260 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
260 Jan

December
225 Dec
235 Dec
160 Dec
260 Jan

January
160 Mar
183 Mar
135 Mar
235 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Nov. 9, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 874.20 -10.00 Jan 23 dn 12.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 926.50 35.00 Jan 23 up 7.30
Basis: Vancouver 941.50 50.00 Jan 23 up 7.30
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 947.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 952.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 962.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 952.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 955.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 955.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 830.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 755.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4080.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 233.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.694)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 223,768 lots, or 12.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,690 5,690 5,690 5,690 5,749 5,690 -59 155 0
Jan-23 5,592 5,697 5,586 5,685 5,551 5,652 101 179,903 112,268
Mar-23 5,500 5,598 5,500 5,591 5,481 5,558 77 20,470 41,025
May-23 5,484 5,593 5,484 5,588 5,484 5,558 74 18,541 22,366
Jul-23 5,479 5,551 5,477 5,547 5,452 5,519 67 2,863 10,323
Sep-23 5,449 5,510 5,448 5,507 5,428 5,482 54 1,836 6,724
Corn
Turnover: 568,304 lots, or 1.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,851 2,840 -11 103 5,439
Jan-23 2,871 2,884 2,860 2,875 2,879 2,872 -7 333,395 638,319
Mar-23 2,895 2,901 2,880 2,895 2,896 2,891 -5 111,063 403,190
May-23 2,924 2,935 2,920 2,931 2,932 2,927 -5 43,224 140,374
Jul-23 2,928 2,937 2,920 2,930 2,939 2,929 -10 76,056 221,996
Sep-23 2,933 2,941 2,928 2,939 2,941 2,934 -7 4,463 8,774
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,546,918 lots, or 65.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,080 5,100 5,080 5,100 5,048 5,092 44 102 5,021
Dec-22 4,572 4,732 4,572 4,683 4,583 4,659 76 66,505 33,680
Jan-23 4,253 4,329 4,234 4,297 4,245 4,284 39 1,142,286 1,671,322
Mar-23 4,110 4,158 4,086 4,130 4,090 4,126 36 58,298 198,435
May-23 3,792 3,833 3,771 3,808 3,763 3,800 37 225,517 565,489
Jul-23 3,735 3,785 3,724 3,762 3,716 3,756 40 33,756 115,514
Aug-23 3,766 3,813 3,754 3,790 3,754 3,786 32 3,297 66,688
Sep-23 3,711 3,768 3,701 3,746 3,694 3,734 40 17,157 36,635
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,255,956 lots, or 10.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,150 8,150 8,026 8,026 8,268 8,088 -180 6 3,005
Dec-22 8,358 8,410 8,172 8,388 8,428 8,298 -130 9,450 11,681
Jan-23 8,278 8,380 8,120 8,340 8,410 8,260 -150 1,101,866 414,473
Feb-23 8,348 8,430 8,180 8,378 8,478 8,310 -168 14,430 77,378
Mar-23 8,348 8,474 8,230 8,402 8,522 8,350 -172 11,256 54,556
Apr-23 8,328 8,452 8,212 8,402 8,436 8,338 -98 2,762 40,229
May-23 8,222 8,364 8,134 8,322 8,376 8,252 -124 103,479 131,141
Jun-23 8,154 8,286 8,050 8,238 8,312 8,176 -136 6,501 28,313
Jul-23 8,052 8,206 7,988 8,108 8,236 8,106 -130 5,871 14,343
Aug-23 8,028 8,096 7,962 8,078 8,212 8,034 -178 15 61
Sep-23 7,944 8,052 7,860 8,018 8,064 7,966 -98 318 583
Oct-23 7,868 7,994 7,868 7,994 8,082 7,930 -152 2 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 782,486 lots, or 71.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 9,830 9,920 9,830 -90 0 1,806
Dec-22 9,602 9,688 9,498 9,626 9,688 9,598 -90 8,400 15,060
Jan-23 9,254 9,346 9,160 9,264 9,376 9,256 -120 666,258 408,282
Mar-23 8,950 9,032 8,876 8,980 9,030 8,954 -76 10,108 75,214
May-23 8,700 8,818 8,644 8,748 8,820 8,726 -94 85,645 116,542
Jul-23 8,572 8,692 8,530 8,630 8,704 8,606 -98 7,249 43,950
Aug-23 8,544 8,658 8,488 8,600 8,638 8,572 -66 3,233 26,978
Sep-23 8,502 8,616 8,452 8,548 8,606 8,526 -80 1,593 3,446
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322