About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Brazil Raises 2022-2023 Soybean Forecast to 153.5M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecast for soybean production for the 2022-2023 growing season amid an expansion of the area planted with the oilseeds.
Brazilian farmers will produce 153.5 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Wednesday. In October, the agency forecast a crop of 152.4 million tons. Brazil produced 125.5 million tons of soybeans in 2021-2022. The area planted with soybeans increased 4.2% from a year earlier, Conab said.
The agency trimmed its forecast for the 2022-2023 corn. This was partly because of a reduction in the area planted, amid high production costs and the decision by some farmers to plant more profitable crops such as soybeans.
Brazilian farmers will produce 126.4 million metric tons of corn this season, Conab said. In October, the agency forecast a crop of 126.9 million tons. Brazil produced 112.8 million tons of corn in 2021-2022.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 10, 2022 4 Oct 31, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as traders prepared for the USDA reports to be released later today A cut in demand and an increase in ending stocks is anticipated. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar even though the Dollar was lower again yesterday. The lower Dollar can have a bigger effect on demand if the Dollar breaks through nearby support. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 823, 819, and 800 December, with resistance at 864, 868, and 892 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 940, 925, and 915 December, with resistance at 972, 982, and 991 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 944, 933, and 928 December, and resistance is at 973, 993, and 1002 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher and closed at new highs for the move. Some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Some rain has fallen in the basin in the last week so barge traffic on the Mississippi might get better. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up. The weekly export sales report was strong and featured big sales to the Dominican Republic. Those sales are thought to be in error and the sales report this week should correct the problem.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1815 and 1850 January. Support is at 1770, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1793, 1799, and 1805 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.83 10.58 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.50 10.97 0.00
Brokens 9.79 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:

U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 54.28/14.78 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.31/10.41 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday on selling from the lack of export demand. The trade anticipates less demand and increased ending stocks levels in reports to be released later today. Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market as USDA is expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its WASDE reports.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year and was slow in the weekly export sales report.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 649 and 623 December. Support is at 665, 662, and 654 December, and resistance is at 679, 686, and 700 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 376, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 395, 400, and 410 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday. Soybean Meal was higher The trading was in anticipation of the release of the USDA reports later today.. The trade thinks that USDA can lower US demand and increase the ending stocks in the WASDE reports this week. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there. Mexico bought 144,000 tons of US Soybeans. China bought 138,700 tons of US Soybeans. Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1524 January. Support is at 1428, 1423, and 1409 January, and resistance is at 1469, 1485, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 414.00, 407.00, and 404.00 December, and resistance is at 425.00 431.00, and 441.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7360, 7260, and 7240 December, with resistance at 7600, 7710, and 7820 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was lower yesterday along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and in anticipation of the USDA reports to be released later today. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed . Support is at 882.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 906.00, 912.00, and 916.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4530, 4850, and 5030 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
260 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
260 Jan

December
225 Dec
235 Dec
160 Dec
260 Jan

January
160 Mar
183 Mar
135 Mar
235 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 8
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Nov. 8, 2022.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 886.50 -10.00 Jan 23 dn 11.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 919.20 35.00 Jan 23 dn 12.30
Basis: Vancouver 934.20 50.00 Jan 23 dn 12.30
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 957.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 967.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 967.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 970.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 970.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 840.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 765.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4180.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 236.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6895)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,472 lots, or 7.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,740 5,760 5,697 5,760 5,760 5,749 -11 290 286
Jan-23 5,547 5,599 5,517 5,590 5,543 5,551 8 111,071 147,381
Mar-23 5,447 5,519 5,447 5,508 5,470 5,481 11 12,456 46,095
May-23 5,500 5,514 5,458 5,508 5,493 5,484 -9 12,472 24,313
Jul-23 5,453 5,480 5,429 5,477 5,456 5,452 -4 2,926 10,251
Sep-23 5,422 5,451 5,409 5,446 5,423 5,428 5 1,257 6,600
Corn
Turnover: 507,042 lots, or 14.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 2,851 2,851 2,851 0 0 6,552
Jan-23 2,892 2,896 2,868 2,871 2,890 2,879 -11 309,693 644,646
Mar-23 2,913 2,914 2,887 2,889 2,908 2,896 -12 98,637 395,537
May-23 2,944 2,949 2,922 2,925 2,945 2,932 -13 33,744 138,724
Jul-23 2,955 2,957 2,926 2,929 2,955 2,939 -16 62,252 210,602
Sep-23 2,952 2,957 2,930 2,932 2,953 2,941 -12 2,716 8,545
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,267,669 lots, or 52.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,046 5,050 5,046 5,050 5,021 5,048 27 136 5,075
Dec-22 4,589 4,608 4,554 4,591 4,585 4,583 -2 36,071 41,839
Jan-23 4,246 4,265 4,223 4,260 4,246 4,245 -1 927,906 1,645,489
Mar-23 4,083 4,111 4,076 4,111 4,083 4,090 7 40,721 197,866
May-23 3,750 3,793 3,742 3,792 3,761 3,763 2 226,813 553,856
Jul-23 3,713 3,742 3,696 3,739 3,713 3,716 3 17,076 116,405
Aug-23 3,737 3,768 3,724 3,767 3,741 3,754 13 7,036 66,648
Sep-23 3,682 3,717 3,672 3,717 3,689 3,694 5 11,910 35,544
Palm Oil
Turnover: 973,355 lots, or 81.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,178 8,280 8,178 8,278 8,436 8,268 -168 41 3,005
Dec-22 8,494 8,574 8,330 8,400 8,508 8,428 -80 7,877 14,030
Jan-23 8,502 8,558 8,290 8,346 8,500 8,410 -90 863,586 427,992
Feb-23 8,554 8,600 8,342 8,402 8,544 8,478 -66 10,615 75,843
Mar-23 8,592 8,636 8,384 8,444 8,596 8,522 -74 5,197 54,152
Apr-23 8,552 8,594 8,348 8,410 8,562 8,436 -126 1,816 39,782
May-23 8,490 8,514 8,258 8,310 8,490 8,376 -114 73,400 125,216
Jun-23 8,386 8,444 8,182 8,246 8,416 8,312 -104 5,381 27,376
Jul-23 8,294 8,374 8,110 8,158 8,332 8,236 -96 5,241 12,791
Aug-23 – – – 8,212 8,218 8,212 -6 0 62
Sep-23 8,150 8,200 7,962 8,002 8,190 8,064 -126 201 622
Oct-23 – – – 8,082 8,104 8,082 -22 0 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 731,246 lots, or 68.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 9,920 9,920 9,920 0 0 1,806
Dec-22 9,806 9,832 9,608 9,666 9,862 9,688 -174 7,376 17,862
Jan-23 9,484 9,510 9,268 9,298 9,526 9,376 -150 643,464 424,356
Mar-23 9,120 9,152 8,952 8,980 9,154 9,030 -124 7,201 73,981
May-23 8,888 8,946 8,726 8,736 8,958 8,820 -138 65,558 113,700
Jul-23 8,790 8,822 8,602 8,628 8,830 8,704 -126 3,651 42,537
Aug-23 8,750 8,778 8,570 8,632 8,778 8,638 -140 2,361 26,267
Sep-23 8,704 8,734 8,526 8,540 8,744 8,606 -138 1,635 2,947
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322