Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher on ideas of improving demand, but economic data and production and supply estimates are coming out this week and the buyers hesitated to buy a lot of Cotton. There are hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are now mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.60, 100.20, and 125.00 December. Support is at 84.80, 84.20, and 80.80 December, with resistance of 89.80, 90.10 and 90.50 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday and made new contract highs. USDA estimated Florida production at 28 million boxes in its latest production reports and these are historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production in recent years. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 210.00, 204.00, and 202.00 January, with resistance at 222.00, 228.00, and 234.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday. Ideas that the market remains short of Coffee for nearby needs are still around and are shown in the spreads. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. The spreads in New York are bullish, implying that supplies are less than demand for right now and that prices should be higher. However, certified stocks increased yesterday. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.406 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 156.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 159.00 and 144.00 December. Support is at 167.00, 165.00, and 162.00 December, and resistance is at 173.00, 183.00 and 186.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1800 January. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1760 January, and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on ideas of tight current supplies, but as the weather in Brazil remained good for the next crop. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market. World Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are still waiting for a government announcement on its export policy before offering much to the market. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export. Brazil exported 3.75 million tons of Sugar in October, from 2.31 million tons last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1970 March. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1890, 1930, and 1940 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 507.00, 495.00, and 490.00 March and resistance is at 515.00, 520.00, and 524.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday. Trends remain up in both markets. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.537 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2450, and 2430 December, with resistance at 2540, 2570, and 2600 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2060 December. Support is at 2020, 2000, and 1980 December, with resistance at 2070, 2100, and 2130 December.