About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 7
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Nov 7, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
SOURCE: USDA, FGIS;
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 3, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/03/2022 10/27/2022 11/04/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,561 9,743
CORN 231,458 445,693 659,901 4,447,613 6,134,187
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 100 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 300
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 4,671 72,154 7,698 217,940 504,194
SOYBEANS 2,591,127 2,586,228 2,911,863 12,812,726 14,190,547
SUNFLOWER 0 384 0 2,064 432
WHEAT 180,991 137,082 252,040 9,828,111 9,920,116
Total 3,008,247 3,241,541 3,831,502 27,316,601 30,759,543
————————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Alerts History
• 07-Nov-2022 02:03:32 PM – USDA FORECASTS 2023/24 U.S. CORN PLANTINGS AT 92.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 15.265 BILLION BUSHELS
• 07-Nov-2022 02:04:29 PM – USDA FORECASTS 2023/24 U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTINGS AT 87.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 4.480 BILLION BUSHELS
• 07-Nov-2022 02:05:50 PM – USDA FORECASTS 2023/24 U.S. WHEAT PLANTINGS AT 47.5 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 1.919 BILLION BUSHELS
• 07-Nov-2022 02:06:55 PM – USDA PROJECTS 2023/24 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS AT 1.712 BILLION BUSHELS, SOY ENDING STOCKS AT 226 MILLION BU, WHEAT ENDING STOCKS AT 663 MILLION BU

Crop Progress
Date 6-Nov 10/36/2022 2021 Avg
Cotton Harvested 62 55 54 55
Corn Har vested 87 76 83 76
Soybeans Harvested 94 88 86 88
Sorghum Harvested 87 77 85 79
Peanuts Harvested 86 79 77 80
Winter Wheat Planted 92 82 98 90
Winter Wheat Emerged 73 62 73 74
Sunflowers Harvested 81 60 68 61
Sugarbeets Harvested 94 89 95 92

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 15 19 36 25 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 17 10 37 23 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 9 13 33 39 6

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed yesterday on light ne available to the trade. Some follow through selling was noted tied to news that Russia had had decided to participate in the Ukraine grain export agreement after all and on news that exports from Ukraine were still going on. The reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar even though the Dollar was lower yesterday. The lower Dollar can have a bigger effect on demand if the Dollar breaks through nearby support near 109.50 on the December Dollar Index. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 834, 823, and 819 December, with resistance at 864, 868, and 892 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 940, 925, and 915 December, with resistance at 972, 982, and 991 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 944, 933, and 928 December, and resistance is at 973, 993, and 1002 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher and closed at new highs for the move. Some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Some rain has fallen in the basin in the last week so barge traffic on the Mississippi might get better. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up. The weekly export sales report was strong and featured big sales to the Dominican Republic. Those sales are thought to be in error and the sales report this week should correct the problem..
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1815 and 1850 January. Support is at 1770, 1745, and 1732 November and resistance is at 1793, 1799, and 1805 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday on selling from the lack of export demand. Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market as USDA is expected to cut demand and raise ending stocks in its WASDE reports.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US . Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year and was slow in the weekly export sales report.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 338,600 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 674, 672, and 665 December, and resistance is at 686, 700, and 706 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 377, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 395, 400, and 410 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday. Soybean Meal was higher. The trade thinks that USDA can lower US demand and increase the ending stocks in the WASDE reports this week. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Export demand has suffered due to the lack of good buying by China. Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there. Mexico bought 144,000 tons of US Soybeans. China bought 138,700 tons of US Soybeans. Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1524 January. Support is at 1428, 1423, and 1409 January, and resistance is at 1469, 1485, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 414.00, 407.00, and 404.00 December, and resistance is at 425.00 431.00, and 441.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7590, 7360, and 7260 December, with resistance at 7820, 7940, and 8060 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today in sympathy with Chicago Soyybean Oil. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was a little lower yesterday along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and a weaker US Dollar. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 898.00 and 923.00 January . Support is at 882.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 912.00, 916.00, and 922.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4530, 4850, and 5030 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November
260 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
260 Jan

December
225 Dec
235 Dec
160 Dec
260 Jan

January
160 Mar
183 Mar
135 Mar
235 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 4
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 896.90 0.00 Jan. 2023 up 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 933.40 35.00 Jan. 2023 dn 3.50
Basis: Vancouver 948.40 50.00 Jan. 2023 dn 3.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 967.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 982.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1002.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 992.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 970.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 985.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1005.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 855.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 770.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4230.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 239.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7345)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 172,458 lots, or 9.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,579 5,799 5,579 5,760 5,701 5,760 59 1,143 287
Jan-23 5,557 5,573 5,507 5,537 5,565 5,543 -22 135,326 161,013
Mar-23 5,485 5,492 5,445 5,468 5,491 5,470 -21 16,278 47,718
May-23 5,511 5,518 5,473 5,482 5,511 5,493 -18 14,472 23,184
Jul-23 5,458 5,475 5,440 5,451 5,467 5,456 -11 3,554 9,337
Sep-23 5,422 5,443 5,413 5,419 5,435 5,423 -12 1,685 6,256
Corn
Turnover: 409,453 lots, or 11.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 2,851 2,851 2,851 0 0 7,652
Jan-23 2,889 2,896 2,884 2,892 2,876 2,890 14 241,849 663,428
Mar-23 2,906 2,916 2,902 2,912 2,894 2,908 14 90,441 395,141
May-23 2,942 2,950 2,940 2,945 2,933 2,945 12 22,282 132,765
Jul-23 2,952 2,960 2,951 2,954 2,943 2,955 12 53,136 204,873
Sep-23 2,947 2,958 2,947 2,954 2,942 2,953 11 1,745 8,833
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,480,832 lots, or 61.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,996 5,050 4,996 5,046 4,996 5,021 25 151 5,075
Dec-22 4,555 4,624 4,554 4,579 4,556 4,585 29 45,659 47,914
Jan-23 4,228 4,283 4,218 4,251 4,197 4,246 49 1,134,213 1,656,829
Mar-23 4,065 4,112 4,056 4,092 4,027 4,083 56 53,444 195,112
May-23 3,751 3,799 3,741 3,762 3,731 3,761 30 204,928 535,812
Jul-23 3,697 3,740 3,694 3,711 3,685 3,713 28 22,415 116,328
Aug-23 3,741 3,761 3,723 3,743 3,719 3,741 22 6,288 62,835
Sep-23 3,686 3,712 3,673 3,691 3,673 3,689 16 13,734 34,459
Palm Oil
Turnover: 947,194 lots, or 80.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,420 8,422 8,420 8,422 8,332 8,436 104 11 3,005
Dec-22 8,504 8,574 8,438 8,540 8,486 8,508 22 11,122 16,554
Jan-23 8,518 8,572 8,426 8,530 8,488 8,500 12 823,306 444,338
Feb-23 8,564 8,624 8,478 8,572 8,538 8,544 6 13,521 74,635
Mar-23 8,590 8,672 8,526 8,612 8,590 8,596 6 8,615 53,695
Apr-23 8,588 8,648 8,506 8,584 8,566 8,562 -4 2,021 39,579
May-23 8,536 8,580 8,432 8,500 8,474 8,490 16 78,090 128,288
Jun-23 8,432 8,502 8,350 8,428 8,396 8,416 20 6,191 26,414
Jul-23 8,350 8,422 8,274 8,318 8,308 8,332 24 4,167 11,431
Aug-23 – – – 8,218 8,218 8,218 0 0 62
Sep-23 8,220 8,252 8,142 8,198 8,168 8,190 22 150 558
Oct-23 – – – 8,104 8,104 8,104 0 0 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 702,626 lots, or 66.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,920 9,920 9,920 9,920 10,194 9,920 -274 2 1,806
Dec-22 9,944 9,978 9,744 9,844 9,944 9,862 -82 12,657 20,741
Jan-23 9,570 9,630 9,438 9,498 9,596 9,526 -70 601,702 428,873
Mar-23 9,178 9,252 9,096 9,144 9,168 9,154 -14 9,172 73,117
May-23 8,972 9,050 8,888 8,942 8,932 8,958 26 67,981 112,420
Jul-23 8,830 8,918 8,766 8,808 8,806 8,830 24 6,282 41,781
Aug-23 8,772 8,876 8,730 8,772 8,748 8,778 30 3,297 25,624
Sep-23 8,750 8,840 8,680 8,742 8,722 8,744 22 1,533 2,357
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322