About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher on Friday and up for the week on ideas of improving demand. There are reports of increased price fixing by mills and hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are now mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.60, 100.20, and 125.00 December. Support is at 84.80, 84.20, and 80.80 December, with resistance of 89.80, 90.10 and 90.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 01, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 363,111
: Positions :
: 30,936 52,319 122,968 112,991 156,578 80,696 16,574 347,591 348,439: 15,520 14,672
: Changes from: October 25, 2022 (Change in open interest: 12,053) :
: 1,082 7,860 8,226 1,745 -6,461 490 1,367 11,544 10,992: 509 1,061
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 14.4 33.9 31.1 43.1 22.2 4.6 95.7 96.0: 4.3 4.0
: Total Traders: 320 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 93 106 62 64 48 24 259 241:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again Friday and made new contract highs. The market has been holding firm on supply side fundamentals. USDA estimated Florida production at 28 million boxes in its latest production reports and these are historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production in recent years. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 204.00, 202.00, and 199.00 January, with resistance at 210.00, 216.00, and 222.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 1, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,241 :
: Positions :
: 1,016 9,631 2,338 68 11 4,698 153 12 824 661 824 :
: Changes from: October 25, 2022 :
: 38 240 -3 7 -6 301 153 -33 -22 21 -134 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 78.7 19.1 0.6 0.1 38.4 1.2 0.1 6.7 5.4 6.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :
: 9 15 6 . . 26 . . 8 8 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and for the week. Ideas that the market remains short of Coffee for nearby needs are still around and are shown in the spreads. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. The spreads in New York are bullish, implying that supplies are less than demand for right now and that prices should be higher. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.387 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 170.00, 168.00, and 165.00 December, and resistance is at 183.00, 186.00 and 189.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1800 January. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1760 January, and resistance is at 1910, 1950, and 1970 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 01, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 290,087
: Positions :
: 17,324 31,914 107,959 99,910 123,283 53,259 17,905 278,452 281,060: 11,636 9,027
: Changes from: October 25, 2022 (Change in open interest: 21,244) :
: -4,321 7,185 16,571 8,699 -2,948 -144 -16 20,806 20,791: 438 452
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.0 11.0 37.2 34.4 42.5 18.4 6.2 96.0 96.9: 4.0 3.1
: Total Traders: 389 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 105 92 122 114 106 49 30 331 297:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/01/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
116,071 70,538 52,675 1,956 3,716 1,978
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 60.8% 45.4% 1.7% 3.2% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 41 35 10 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,183 26,215 3,949 6,274 1,970 20,710
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.3% 22.6% 3.4% 5.4% 1.7% 17.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 34 14 14 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,483 4,858
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 4.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and for the week last week on ideas of tight current supplies, but as the truckers strike in Brazil was cleaned up. Federal police have been removing the roadblocks and letting transportation resume. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market. Brazil truckers are unhappy that Lula won the presidency again and are taking action to block transport inside of Brazil. In fact, the world Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are still waiting for a government announcement on its export policy before offering much to the market. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export. Brazil exported 3.75 million tons of Sugar in October, from 2.31 million tons last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1970 March. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1890, 1930, and 1940 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 507.00, 495.00, and 490.00 March and resistance is at 525.00, 520.00, and 524.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 01, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 884,550
: Positions :
: 99,182 101,124 173,622 305,050 504,050 236,359 56,090 814,213 834,885: 70,336 49,664
: Changes from: October 25, 2022 (Change in open interest: 28,409) :
: -10,529 19,305 16,716 33,026 -16,625 -5,598 7,231 33,615 26,627: -5,206 1,782
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.2 11.4 19.6 34.5 57.0 26.7 6.3 92.0 94.4: 8.0 5.6
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 52 75 67 75 43 20 209 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/01/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
84,507 39,363 63,815 6,201 5,367 2,210
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.6% 75.5% 7.3% 6.4% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
116 38 35 8 4 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,928 1,547 4,270 2,134 1,487 3,391
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.6% 1.8% 5.1% 2.5% 1.8% 4.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 5 14 8 7 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,010 2,420
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.3% 2.9%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and London made new contract highs. Trends remain up in both markets. The grind reports were released in the last two weeks and showed strong demand. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.542 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2470 December. Support is at 2420, 2410, and 2380 December, with resistance at 2470, 2510, and 2540 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2060 December. Support is at 2000, 1950, and 1910 December, with resistance at 2070, 2100, and 2130 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 01, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 377,101
: Positions :
: 52,544 81,989 103,714 152,513 136,414 55,353 44,668 364,124 366,786: 12,978 10,316
: Changes from: October 25, 2022 (Change in open interest: 6,682) :
: -1,712 1,450 3,271 3,746 -545 1,681 3,163 6,985 7,340: -303 -658
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 21.7 27.5 40.4 36.2 14.7 11.8 96.6 97.3: 3.4 2.7
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 81 80 50 37 33 24 204 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/01/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
331,763 148,299 220,737 31,390 28,275 18,708
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 44.7% 66.5% 9.5% 8.5% 5.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 49 47 13 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
68,298 7,529 11,756 10,060 4,378 38,661
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.6% 2.3% 3.5% 3.0% 1.3% 11.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 12 23 11 12 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,591 1,719
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.5%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322