Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher to limit up for the third day yesterday on ideas of improving demand. There are reports of increased price fixing by mills and hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are now mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.11 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 89.60, 100.20, and 125.00 December. Support is at 80.80, 79.60, and 76.50 December, with resistance of 83.00, 85.80 and 89.80 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 3
As of Oct 28. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Dec 22 22,402 26,719 -4,317 13,405 15,506 -2,101
Mar 23 23,704 22,062 1,642 7,996 6,348 1,648
May 23 9,217 9,256 -39 974 306 668
Jul 23 15,233 15,193 40 1,138 1,023 115
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 7,839 8,130 -291 15,265 14,812 453
Mar 24 494 503 -9 75 75 0
May 24 373 373 0 0 0 0
Jul 24 349 349 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 440 440 0 431 272 159
Mar 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
May 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 80,051 83,025 -2,974 39,284 38,342 942
Open Open Change
Dec 22 100,921 101,640 -719
Mar 23 76,056 69,874 6,182
May 23 22,791 22,062 729
Jul 23 24,200 20,079 4,121
Oct 23 2 2 0
Dec 23 22,083 21,121 962
Mar 24 2,510 2,489 21
May 24 587 562 25
Jul 24 752 644 108
Dec 24 1,290 1,221 69
Mar 25 20 20 0
May 25 2 2 0
Total 251,214 239,716 11,498
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday. The market has been holding firm on supply side fundamentals. USDA estimated Florida production at 28 million boxes in its latest production reports and these are historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production in recent years. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 204.00, 202.00, and 199.00 January, with resistance at 210.00, 216.00, and 222.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on a sharp rally in the US Dollar. Ideas that the market remains short of Coffee for nearby needs are still around and are shown in the spreads. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. The spreads in New York are bullish, implying that supplies are less than demand for right now and that prices should be higher. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.384 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 157.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 168.00, 165.00, and 162.00 December, and resistance is at 183.00, 186.00 and 189.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1800 January. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1760 January, and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 January.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed mixed yesterday on ideas of tight current supplies, but as the truckers strike in Brazil was cleaned up. Federal police have been removing the roadblocks and letting transportation resume. More ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside for the London market. Brazil truckers are unhappy that Lula won the presidency again and are taking action to block transport inside of Brazil. In fact, the world Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are still waiting for a government announcement on its export policy before offering much to the market. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export. Brazil exported 3.75 million tons of Sugar in October, from 2.31 million tons last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1890 and 1970 March. Support is at 1810, 1800, and 1770 March and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1890 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 495.00, 490.00, and 487.00 March and resistance is at 507.00, 512.00, and 515.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative profit taking after the recent run to higher prices. Trends remain up in both markets. The grind reports were released in the last two weeks and showed strong demand. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.554 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2400 and 2470 December. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 December, with resistance at 2420, 2430, and 2450 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970, 2010, and 2060 December. Support is at 1950, 1910, and 1880 December, with resistance at 2000, 2020, and 2040 December.