About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 07, 2022 21 Oct 28, 2022

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 3
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended Oct. 30, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2833.2 782.6 269.1 454.4 48.8 1350.6 320.7 89.8 7207.4
Week Ago 2916.3 833.0 249.3 396.7 47.9 1348.3 301.5 90.0 7314.9
Year Ago 2779.4 656.6 303.0 460.3 45.2 1641.6 319.5 59.5 7230.2
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 441.4 96.7 53.2 166.8 2.6 417.0 47.0 7.9 1357.8
Week Ago 491.5 148.2 45.7 122.0 4.3 495.8 36.2 5.1 1512.8
To Date 6291.5 1332.9 701.9 1410.8 29.0 4754.0 1080.4 80.2 16914.3
Year Ago 4431.7 989.0 637.9 1857.5 76.4 4989.0 973.4 93.7 15241.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 483.4 116.3 – 40.2 – 253.1 117.7 3.0 1429.7
Week Ago 546.0 121.4 3.8 52.5 – 273.2 35.0 – 1483.9
To Date 6059.6 1245.6 39.2 738.1 0.5 1989.4 863.6 132.2 13185.1
Year Ago 4550.2 907.6 100.3 1087.3 9.9 2150.8 684.1 61.5 11836.5
EXPORTS
This Week 424.4 101.5 14.9 35.8 0.9 129.9 21.5 – 1110.6
Week Ago 533.9 161.7 55.9 80.0 0.6 332.0 10.6 – 1329.4
To Date 4628.1 823.4 357.0 756.3 10.4 1600.4 725.2 134.7 10122.4
Year Ago 3291.9 860.2 417.3 962.4 16.9 1555.5 643.0 43.9 9033.0
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 100.5 4.4 22.5 32.8 1.1 214.9 7.7 15.9 471.6
Week Ago 54.3 3.8 18.1 29.5 1.6 209.1 5.7 18.8 401.8
To Date 1081.4 137.0 225.1 402.2 16.0 2357.7 76.1 357.4 5163.3
Year Ago 1229.0 69.5 202.6 454.9 13.9 2385.3 76.2 226.3 5114.9
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to a little lower yesterday on some follow through selling tied to news that Russia had had decided to participate in the Ukraine grain export agreement after all and on news that exports from Ukraine were still going on. A stronger US Dollar and the reduced pace of export sales for the US were bearish. Russia said that Ukraine sent drones out to harm its Black Sea fleet. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there were some showers in the western Great Plains this week. Conditions are called good for development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 823, 819, and 808 December, with resistance at 858, 863, and 868 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 923, 915, and 896 December, with resistance at 960, 982, and 991 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 929 and 895 December. Support is at 933, 928, and 907 December, and resistance is at 965, 971, and 993 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was near unchanged after the huge run to higher prices seen earlier this week. The price recovery had been remarkable over the past week but some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Some selling was noted as shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up. The weekly export sales report was strong and featured big sales to the Dominican Republic.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1744, 1732, and 1725 November and resistance is at 1773, 1793, and 1799 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower again yesterday and price action the last couple of days has been weak in response to news that Russia had decided to participate after all in the Ukraine grain export program put together by the UN. Russia says that Ukraine sent drones out to its ships in the Black Sea to attack Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year and was slow in the weekly export sales report.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 680, 674, and 672 December, and resistance is at 700, 706, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 377, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 400, 4010, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on news that the protests in Brazilover the new president are getting shut down and blockades are being cleared. Lula was the president before the last one and has now regained power. There have been protests that he won, mostly by truckers who had benefitted a lot from the policies of the former administration. Lula is also expected to be more environmentally conscious and that might mean less Soybeans down the road along with greater demand for Ethanol and other bio fuels. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1463 and 1524 January. Support is at 1423, 1409, and 1402 January, and resistance is at 1468, 1485, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up\\down with objectives of 400.00, 399.00, and 389.00 December. Support is at 414.00, 407.00, and 404.00 December, and resistance is at 421.00 425.00, and 431.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7360, 7260, and 7240 December, with resistance at 7700, 7820, and 7940 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures traded higher today along with the price action in Chicago. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was again yesterday along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and a weaker Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 898.00 and 923.00 January . Support is at 882.00, 872.00, and 858.00 January, with resistance at 904.00, 910.00, and 916.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4530, 4850, and 5030 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

November
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

December
195 Dec
205 Dec
160 Dec
205 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 894.80 0.00 Jan. 2023 dn 5.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 936.90 40.00 Jan. 2023 up 2.10
Basis: Vancouver 951.90 55.00 Jan. 2023 up 2.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 967.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 982.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1007.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 997.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 970.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 985.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1010.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1000.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 875.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 780.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4200.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 240.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.747)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,273 lots, or 7.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,730 5,730 5,725 5,725 5,658 5,727 69 2 2,480
Jan-23 5,594 5,622 5,550 5,552 5,564 5,595 31 110,454 144,741
Mar-23 5,500 5,537 5,477 5,480 5,487 5,511 24 14,785 47,534
May-23 5,585 5,585 5,502 5,502 5,514 5,541 27 10,319 19,637
Jul-23 5,473 5,519 5,460 5,463 5,473 5,494 21 2,382 6,513
Sep-23 5,467 5,485 5,418 5,418 5,446 5,460 14 2,331 4,624
Corn
Turnover: 540,876 lots, or 15.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,831 2,850 2,820 2,850 2,814 2,834 20 794 9,804
Jan-23 2,838 2,876 2,834 2,867 2,842 2,856 14 352,824 654,048
Mar-23 2,856 2,895 2,854 2,885 2,862 2,874 12 94,591 389,107
May-23 2,897 2,931 2,895 2,920 2,903 2,912 9 31,016 127,659
Jul-23 2,908 2,946 2,908 2,937 2,916 2,926 10 59,341 198,796
Sep-23 2,915 2,946 2,915 2,936 2,920 2,929 9 2,310 8,045
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,652,639 lots, or 68.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,921 4,983 4,900 4,900 4,963 4,927 -36 256 5,149
Dec-22 4,553 4,597 4,520 4,556 4,565 4,554 -11 83,591 63,932
Jan-23 4,184 4,217 4,156 4,188 4,195 4,188 -7 1,260,284 1,646,675
Mar-23 4,023 4,047 3,991 4,013 4,027 4,018 -9 52,738 185,769
May-23 3,714 3,740 3,702 3,727 3,713 3,723 10 214,254 521,293
Jul-23 3,664 3,692 3,654 3,677 3,667 3,674 7 21,771 115,149
Aug-23 3,694 3,723 3,688 3,716 3,698 3,708 10 11,741 61,626
Sep-23 3,656 3,677 3,642 3,669 3,648 3,660 12 8,004 29,772
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,194,423 lots, or 10.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 8,478 8,478 8,478 0 36 3,020
Dec-22 8,456 8,618 8,358 8,578 8,532 8,484 -48 18,130 25,177
Jan-23 8,440 8,646 8,326 8,594 8,532 8,490 -42 1,054,456 468,727
Feb-23 8,502 8,664 8,356 8,630 8,568 8,514 -54 15,198 71,693
Mar-23 8,512 8,700 8,404 8,670 8,608 8,560 -48 10,447 49,849
Apr-23 8,482 8,660 8,376 8,638 8,564 8,532 -32 5,362 38,840
May-23 8,400 8,584 8,296 8,556 8,472 8,456 -16 77,782 126,083
Jun-23 8,306 8,508 8,210 8,480 8,386 8,352 -34 8,080 23,749
Jul-23 8,230 8,428 8,122 8,402 8,306 8,300 -6 4,734 8,376
Aug-23 8,102 8,266 8,052 8,266 8,150 8,108 -42 9 61
Sep-23 8,084 8,256 7,980 8,238 8,150 8,142 -8 188 536
Oct-23 8,136 8,136 8,136 8,136 8,112 8,136 24 1 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 878,080 lots, or 83.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 10,190 10,500 10,190 10,500 10,190 10,194 4 407 1,806
Dec-22 9,958 10,038 9,860 10,012 10,018 9,954 -64 14,091 31,244
Jan-23 9,500 9,668 9,448 9,654 9,542 9,566 24 763,043 457,960
Mar-23 9,064 9,224 9,032 9,206 9,092 9,132 40 13,190 72,373
May-23 8,876 8,998 8,822 8,990 8,914 8,920 6 78,037 108,354
Jul-23 8,790 8,874 8,702 8,868 8,792 8,780 -12 5,026 38,482
Aug-23 8,722 8,820 8,662 8,820 8,760 8,746 -14 3,435 24,046
Sep-23 8,664 8,772 8,618 8,760 8,696 8,710 14 851 1,702
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322