About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. September Coffee, Cocoa Imports-November 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2022—- —-Aug 2022—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 109,051,098 240,457,671 115,756,507 255,243,098
coffee, roasted 9,452,275 20,842,266 9,878,428 21,781,934
coffee, soluble
instant 6,031,818 13,300,159 6,388,023 14,085,591
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 16,641,896 36,695,381 17,365,575 38,291,093
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,829,914 6,239,960 2,613,701 5,763,211
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 10,539,653 23,239,935 12,261,506 27,036,621
cocoa paste,
not defatted 6,208,741 13,690,274 7,783,617 17,162,875
cocoa paste
defatted 9,069,400 19,998,027 9,320,500 20,551,703
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 10,825,423 23,870,058 10,490,658 23,131,901
cocoa powder,
sweetened 171,082 377,236 38,118 84,050
confectioners
coating 4,950,637 10,916,155 5,234,906 11,542,968
candy containing
chocolate 14,082,835 31,052,651 17,197,712 37,920,955

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher to limit up for the second day yesterday on massive short covering on ideas of improving demand. There are reports of increased price fixing by mills and hopes that China is about to open again despite its zero tolerance Covid policies. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are now mixed on the charts. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.36 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 76.50, 75.00, and 72.00 December, with resistance of 79.00, 80.80 and 83.00 December.

DJ U.S. Sep Cotton Exports-Nov 3
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 22 Aug 22 Jul 22 Sep 21
Upland, under 1 inch 4,594,788 9,354,662 7,858,604 1,750,805
1 to 1 1/8 inch 62,738,559 93,898,378 108,030,690 49,439,207
upland 1 1/8 and over 233,873 392,468 2,394,520 3,985,500
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 86,679,752 165,191,093 187,968,971 66,999,017
All cotton 154,246,972 268,836,601 306,252,785 122,174,529
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Sep 22 Aug 22 Jul 22 Sep 21
Upland, under 1 inch 21,104 42,966 36,094 8,041
1 to 1 1/8 inch 288,156 431,272 496,181 227,072
upland 1 1/8 and over 1,074 1,803 10,998 18,305
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 398,117 758,716 863,334 307,724
All cotton 708,451 1,234,756 1,406,608 561,143

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday in range trading. The market has been holding firm on supply side fundamentals. USDA estimated Florida production at 28 million boxes in its latest production reports and these are historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production in recent years. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 191.00 January, with resistance at 207.00, 210.00, and 216.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on ideas that the market remains short of Coffee for nearby needs. Ideas are that the market will have enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. The spreads in New York are bullish, implying that supplies are less than demand for right now and that prices should be higher. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.384 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.17 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with b elow normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1=78.00, 168.00, and 165.00 December, and resistance is at 186.00, 189.00 and 192.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800 January. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1790 January, and resistance is at 1910, 1950, and 1970 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday on ideas of tight current supplies and the truckers strike in Brazil, but more ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside Brazil truckers are unhappy that Lula won the presidency again and are taking action to block transport inside of Brazil. In fact, the world Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are still waiting for a government announcement on its export policy before offering much to the market. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export. Brazil exported 3.75 million tons of Sugar in October, from 2.31 million tons last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1890 and 1970 March. Support is at 1810, 1800, and 1770 March and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1890 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 495.00, 490.00, and 487.00 March and resistance is at 505.00, 507.00, and 512.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday and made new highs for the move. Trends have turned up in both markets. The grind reports were released in the last two weeks and showed strong demand. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.552 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2400 and 2470 December. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 December, with resistance at 2420, 2430, and 2450 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1970, 2010, and 2060 December. Support is at 1910, 1880, and 1870 December, with resistance at 1950, 1980, and 2000 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322