About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 04, 2022 18 Oct 31, 2022
SOYBEAN November Nov 04, 2022 430 Oct 28, 2022

DJ U.S. Sep Grain Exports-Nov 3
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 22 Aug 22 Jul 22 Sep 21
Barley 1,805,948 538,948 1,800,290 1,566,000
Corn /1 2,630,393,000 3,298,309,000 4,583,008,000 2,550,254,000
Sorghum 116,058,000 284,915,000 408,873,000 242,802,000
Oats 3,283,580 4,402,935 7,049,832 5,389,105
Rye 21,902 224,205 611,800 88,150
Wheat /1 3,048,958,205 2,513,813,264 1,535,399,917 2,330,004,072
wheat flour /1 17,840,873 20,680,717 19,425,795 20,721,954
Malt 27,045,172 23,853,667 25,064,127 41,726,048
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Sep 22 Aug 22 Jul 22 Sep 21
Barley 82,946 24,753 82,686 71,925
Corn /1 103,552,935 129,847,357 180,423,204 100,398,035
Sorghum 4,568,955 11,216,493 16,096,454 9,558,594
Oats 226,218 303,335 485,689 371,276
Rye 862 8,826 24,085 3,470
Wheat /1 112,028,887 92,365,878 56,415,710 85,612,116
wheat flour /1 393,324 455,932 428,266 456,841
Malt 59,624,408 52,588,343 55,256,951 91,990,205
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. Sep Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Nov 3
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 22 Aug 22 Jul 22 Sep 21
soybeans 2,122,976,204 3,317,554,232 2,323,126,517 2,169,525,812
soyoil 20,501,383 25,970,248 53,648,559 15,868,077
crude 10,440,136 15,946,479 45,407,779 8,279,397
refined 141,507 195,384 138,844 296,581
other/1 9,779,468 9,635,649 7,943,557 7,040,576
hydrogenated 140,272 192,736 158,379 251,523
cottonseed oil 4,376,424 4,074,527 4,930,051 1,228,681
crude 299,562 373,055 958,323 20,276
refined 3,294,965 2,967,773 3,043,983 540,893
other/1 625,124 609,615 454,254 498,806
hydrogenated 156,773 124,084 473,491 168,706
sunseeds 1,493,636 1,673,261 57,782 247,404
sunseed oil 6,551,174 8,103,865 8,956,505 4,030,630
rapeseed 16,005,614 6,708,760 3,263,305 15,463,119
rapeseed oil 7,052,063 2,927,577 4,985,167 19,395,507
crude 1,885,879 646,688 1,123,708 9,446,782
refined 5,166,184 2,280,889 3,861,459 9,948,725
linseed meal 81,100 160,151 203,092 153,314
cottonseed meal 3,624,562 2,855,488 5,130,259 6,097,562
soymeal 604,592,808 720,757,114 857,614,087 589,615,679
soymeal/flour 203,780,401 100,572,595 155,685,830 129,699,483
soymeal hulls 9,163,000 6,902,000 26,308,000 5,590,000
lard 1,807,852 4,726,170 892,302 3,848,628
edible tallow 2,970,327 4,622,449 5,088,511 9,177,560
inedible tallow 24,341,517 20,218,400 16,951,436 12,267,647
ch white grease 78,448 24,880 0 44,248
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Sep 22 Aug 22 Jul 22 Sep 21
soybeans 78,005,222 121,898,000 85,359,411 79,715,609
soyoil 45,197,820 57,254,606 118,274,847 34,983,128
crude 23,016,564 35,155,974 100,107,034 18,252,949
refined 311,970 430,748 306,099 653,849
other/1 21,560,040 21,242,973 17,512,548 15,521,816
hydrogenated 309,247 424,910 349,166 554,513
cottonseed oil 9,648,365 8,982,796 10,868,904 2,708,778
crude 660,421 822,446 2,112,741 44,701
refined 7,264,156 6,542,821 6,710,835 1,192,465
other/1 1,378,163 1,343,971 1,001,459 1,099,679
hydrogenated 345,625 273,558 1,043,869 371,933
sunseeds 3,292,904 3,688,910 127,388 545,433
sunseed oil 14,442,869 17,865,967 19,745,717 8,886,020
rapeseed 35,286,345 14,790,287 7,194,357 34,090,348
rapeseed oil 15,547,140 6,454,204 10,990,414 42,759,781
crude 4,157,652 1,425,703 2,477,353 20,826,593
refined 11,389,488 5,028,500 8,513,061 21,933,188
linseed meal 89 177 224 169
cottonseed meal 3,995 3,148 5,655 6,721
soymeal 666,443 794,491 945,348 649,933
soymeal flour/me 224,627 110,861 171,612 142,968
soymeal hulls 10,100 7,608 28,999 6,162
lard 3,985,632 10,419,423 1,967,190 8,484,774
edible tallow 6,548,451 10,190,757 11,218,248 20,233,060
inedible tallow 53,663,868 44,573,950 37,371,526 27,045,537
ch white grease 172,948 54,851 0 97,550

DJ U.S. September Grain Imports-November 3
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2022—- —-Aug 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 163,090 359,613 1,522,360 3,356,804
spring wheat 38,555 85,014 2,236,190 4,930,799
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 201,645 444,627 3,758,550 8,287,603
barley 8,583,424 18,926,450 10,342,628 22,805,495
oats 238,475 525,837 143,958 317,427
corn 36,516,342 80,518,534 61,621,753 135,875,965
other corn 2,063,100 4,549,136 2,379,949 5,247,788
TOTAL CORN 38,579,442 85,067,670 64,001,702 141,123,753

DJ U.S. Sep Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-November 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2022—- —-Aug 2022—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 75,660,333 166,831,034 25,418,500 56,047,793
palm kernel oil 21,174,280 46,689,287 24,178,596 53,313,804
palm oil 134,964,432 297,596,573 138,861,318 306,189,206
soybean 31,274,665 68,960,636 59,898,356 132,075,875
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 10,280,325 22,668,117 9,641,216 21,258,881
rapeseed oil
edible 166,803,479 367,801,671 182,050,911 401,422,259
rapeseed oil,
inedible 38,830 85,620 154,203 340,018

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 3
For the week ended Oct 27, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 348.1 0.0 12171.5 13007.2 3356.4 24.0
hrw 85.7 0.0 3352.8 5160.1 777.6 6.3
srw 20.9 0.0 2165.0 1908.4 508.1 6.6
hrs 97.1 0.0 3617.5 3452.9 1085.2 10.8
white 144.4 0.0 2896.7 2336.2 923.8 0.3
durum 0.0 0.0 139.4 149.7 61.7 0.0
corn 372.2 0.0 14467.4 31008.5 10321.7 311.0
soybeans 830.2 0.0 32297.8 32004.0 22407.1 0.0
soymeal 122.2 0.6 3970.1 4682.8 3316.7 2.2
soyoil -2.4 0.0 29.6 133.8 23.4 0.6
upland cotton 191.8 11.2 8630.1 8508.8 5964.2 1101.2
pima cotton 1.2 0.0 103.9 299.4 83.6 0.9
sorghum 12.2 0.0 323.9 3017.4 279.8 0.0
barley -1.5 0.0 14.0 30.1 10.1 0.0
rice 119.2 0.0 682.1 1107.7 254.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower yesterday on news that Russia had had decided to participate in the Ukraine grain export agreement after all and on news that exports from Ukraine were still going on. Russia said that Ukraine sent drones out to harm its Black Sea fleet. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there were some showers in the western Great Plains last week. Conditions are called good for development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average BOVE normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 838, 833, and 819 December, with resistance at 863, 882, and 904 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 934, 915, and 896 December, with resistance at 960, 982, and 991 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 941, 928, and 907 December, and resistance is at 971, 993, and 1002 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday on ideas the market was too high after the huge run to higher prices seen over the previous two days. The price recovery had been remarkable over the past week but some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Some selling was noted as shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1744, 1732, and 1725 November and resistance is at 1773, 1793, and 1799 November

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices for Nov 2
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.70 10.50 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.36 10.88 0.00
Brokens 9.71 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday in response to news that Russia had decided to participate after all in the Ukraine grain export program put together by the UN. Russia says that Ukraine sent drones out to its ships in the Black Sea to attack Weak demand for US Corn remains a big problem for the market.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 680, 674, and 672 December, and resistance is at 700, 706, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 377, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 400, 4010, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher for another day due to protests as Brazil has a new president in Lula da Silva. He was the president before the current one and has now regained power. There have been protests that he won, mostly by truckers who had benefitted a lot from the policies of the former administration. Lula is also expected to be more environmentally conscious and that might mean less Soybeans down the road along with greater demand for Ethanol and other bio fuels. Domestic demand should be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1463 and 1524 January. Support is at 1435, 1423, and 1409 January, and resistance is at 1465, 1481, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 434.00 and 454.00 December. Support is at 420.00, 418.00, and 415.00 December, and resistance is at 431.00 441.00, and 444.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 8260 December. Support is at 7380, 71260, and 7240 December, with resistance at 7580, 7700, and 7820 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures traded lower today along wioth the price action in Chicago. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher yesterday along with the price action in Chicago and Malaysia. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 898.00 and 923.00 January . Support is at 872.00, 858.00, and 850.00 January, with resistance at 898.00, 904.00, and 910.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4530, 4850, and 5030 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

November
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

December
195 Dec
205 Dec
160 Dec
205 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 900.20 16.00 Jan. 2023 up 7.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 934.80 40.00 Jan. 2023 up 10.60
Basis: Vancouver 949.80 55.00 Jan. 2023 up 10.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 962.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 972.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1002.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 992.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 965.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 975.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1005.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 870.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 770.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4200.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 244.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.742)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 152,747 lots, or 8.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,650 5,728 5,640 5,728 5,707 5,658 -49 39 2,510
Jan-23 5,566 5,604 5,522 5,596 5,607 5,564 -43 124,347 146,278
Mar-23 5,510 5,518 5,453 5,507 5,520 5,487 -33 15,679 46,975
May-23 5,522 5,547 5,472 5,539 5,544 5,514 -30 10,082 18,153
Jul-23 5,460 5,503 5,418 5,491 5,502 5,473 -29 1,281 4,998
Sep-23 5,441 5,471 5,401 5,462 5,473 5,446 -27 1,319 3,269
Corn
Turnover: 658,233 lots, or 18.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,831 2,832 2,809 2,815 2,854 2,814 -40 3,126 11,246
Jan-23 2,845 2,855 2,831 2,840 2,878 2,842 -36 448,525 675,920
Mar-23 2,868 2,873 2,851 2,858 2,895 2,862 -33 108,087 391,067
May-23 2,910 2,913 2,894 2,899 2,932 2,903 -29 43,936 123,935
Jul-23 2,920 2,925 2,905 2,909 2,946 2,916 -30 50,743 196,351
Sep-23 2,925 2,931 2,909 2,919 2,947 2,920 -27 3,816 7,788
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,583,541 lots, or 65.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,984 4,984 4,926 4,968 4,996 4,963 -33 94 5,089
Dec-22 4,550 4,601 4,519 4,581 4,620 4,565 -55 69,026 80,224
Jan-23 4,188 4,234 4,158 4,210 4,242 4,195 -47 1,205,535 1,686,084
Mar-23 4,021 4,055 3,993 4,038 4,065 4,027 -38 51,652 178,664
May-23 3,698 3,747 3,681 3,734 3,737 3,713 -24 212,630 511,311
Jul-23 3,656 3,691 3,634 3,677 3,672 3,667 -5 19,899 111,566
Aug-23 3,688 3,726 3,675 3,717 3,707 3,698 -9 13,681 59,467
Sep-23 3,640 3,675 3,624 3,665 3,662 3,648 -14 11,024 29,446
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,006,085 lots, or 8.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,478 8,478 8,478 8,478 8,438 8,478 40 2 3,020
Dec-22 8,502 8,600 8,460 8,480 8,428 8,532 104 18,833 30,915
Jan-23 8,480 8,614 8,450 8,490 8,416 8,532 116 865,890 472,537
Feb-23 8,504 8,646 8,470 8,524 8,406 8,568 162 17,096 70,904
Mar-23 8,540 8,682 8,496 8,564 8,442 8,608 166 10,191 48,219
Apr-23 8,486 8,642 8,460 8,536 8,416 8,564 148 6,531 38,481
May-23 8,376 8,550 8,374 8,454 8,376 8,472 96 76,500 121,699
Jun-23 8,326 8,464 8,300 8,374 8,274 8,386 112 6,307 21,726
Jul-23 8,254 8,374 8,214 8,290 8,206 8,306 100 4,591 6,059
Aug-23 8,150 8,150 8,150 8,150 8,186 8,150 -36 1 63
Sep-23 8,084 8,216 8,064 8,130 8,054 8,150 96 140 516
Oct-23 8,094 8,140 8,094 8,140 7,910 8,112 202 3 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 733,397 lots, or 69.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 10,190 10,190 10,190 0 0 2,213
Dec-22 9,972 10,100 9,930 9,982 9,926 10,018 92 10,281 37,501
Jan-23 9,494 9,594 9,460 9,560 9,440 9,542 102 643,786 439,553
Mar-23 9,000 9,142 9,000 9,126 8,910 9,092 182 8,129 70,966
May-23 8,852 8,968 8,828 8,932 8,804 8,914 110 65,038 108,368
Jul-23 8,752 8,844 8,718 8,800 8,652 8,792 140 3,546 36,676
Aug-23 8,706 8,808 8,674 8,766 8,628 8,760 132 1,681 24,071
Sep-23 8,654 8,758 8,636 8,728 8,536 8,696 160 936 1,708
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322