Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher to limit up yesterday on massive short covering but as traders continue to worry about demand. Chinese demand is especially a problem as parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again last week. Trends are still down on the charts despite the limit moves in nearby months. Production in the US is very short. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.36 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.00, 70.00, and 68.80 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.60 and 79.00 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday in moderate volume trading. The market has been holding firm on supply side fundamentals. USDA estimated Florida production at 28 million boxes in its latest production reports and these are historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production in recent years. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 191.00 January, with resistance at 207.00, 210.00, and 216.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on ideas that the market will have enough Coffee soon. The spreads in New York are bullish, implying that supplies are less than demand for right now and that prices should be higher. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remains the main cause for any selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.384 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.23 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated to scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 168.00, 165.00, and 162.00 December, and resistance is at 180.00, 186.00 and 189.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800 January. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1790 January, and resistance is at 1880, 1910, and 1940 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday, but more ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market could limit the upside. In fact, the world Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Brazil Sugar offers are likely to drop in volume with the return of Lula as president of Brazil He is much more environmentally focused than the previous president weas and is likely to return the ethanol and biofuels mandates to previously higher levels. Indian exporters are still waiting for a government announcement on its export policy before offering much to the market. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1890 and 1970 March. Support is at 1830, 1810, and 1800 March and resistance is at 1880, 1890, and 1930 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 495.00, 490.00, and 487.00 March and resistance is at 505.00, 507.00, and 512.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday in range trading. The grind reports were released in the last two weeks and showed strong demand. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.550 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2280, and 2240 December, with resistance at 2350, 2420, and 2430 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1880, 1870, and 1820 December, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 1980 December.