About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Russia Says It Will Rejoin Ukraine Grain-Export Deal — Update
By Jared Malsin
ISTANBUL — Russia said it would resume participation in a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports, ending a dayslong standoff that threatened the steady flow of such shipments to world markets.
Grain markets fell after Russia’s move. Wheat was down more than 5% early Wednesday, while corn prices lost more than 1%.
Over the weekend, Russia suspended its involvement in a deal with the United Nations and Turkey struck in July that allowed for the safe passage of grain exports from war-torn Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea to world markets. Moscow had said a maritime corridor used to facilitate the grain shipments had been used in an attack on Russia-occupied Crimea. Moscow threatened to board ships that left without permission.
But Russia’s Defense Ministry said early Wednesday it had received written guarantees from Kyiv that Ukraine wouldn’t use the corridor to attack Russian forces.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker the agreement, separately said Russia had rejoined the deal, which for months had allowed for the safe transport of Ukrainian grain. He said in a speech to lawmakers in Ankara that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to rejoin the deal and as of Wednesday “grain shipments [will] continue as previously planned.”
No ships were scheduled to leave port on Wednesday, in what U.N. officials described as an operational pause ahead of plans for eight ships to leave on Thursday. It couldn’t be determined whether Russia’s agreement to rejoin the deal would change that schedule.
Russia’s decision to pull out of the deal had triggered a surge in the global price of wheat and days of diplomacy aimed at trying to convince Russia to rejoin. Meanwhile, U.N., Turkish and Ukrainian officials arranged for vessels to continue sailing through the Black Sea corridor anyway, defying Russia’s threats.
Russia’s suspension threatened to increase economic pressure on Ukraine, which relied on agriculture for about 10% of its gross domestic product before the war, Western and Ukrainian officials said. The Russian shutdown also imperiled food supplies for millions of people in poorer countries that import Ukrainian wheat.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had bottled up those grain exports, sending global prices soaring. The U.N.-brokered deal moderated those prices, but also appeared to give Moscow outsize leverage on markets. As Mr. Putin threatened in recent weeks to leave the deal, Western officials accused him of using food as a weapon. The willingness of ships to continue their voyages despite Russia’s threats in recent days raised questions about Moscow’s ability to stem the flow.
A key consideration for shipowners: insurance. Underwriters have insured voyages taken under the auspices of the deal. Without Russia’s participation and amid Moscow’s threats, at least one big insurer stopped writing new policies while talks with Russia continued.
Ismini Palla, a spokeswoman for the U.N. at a coordination center in Istanbul that is charged with overseeing the deal, said Wednesday’s pause in shipping, which was planned before Russia’s decision to rejoin the deal, was intended “to provide time for planning and discussions for the next movement of vessels.”
Ukraine shipped nearly 10 million tons of corn, wheat, sunflower oil and other products through the deal’s maritime corridor between August and October, helping to return the country’s exports to prewar levels.
Russia stopped cooperating with the agreement after it accused Ukraine of using the corridor to attack Russian forces over the weekend. The U.N. said no military vessels are allowed to approach the corridor, which is closely monitored using satellite data.
In threatening to abandon the deal in recent months, Russia had complained that not enough of Ukraine’s grain was going to poor countries and said Western sanctions had slowed Russian food and fertilizer exports. U.S. and European Union officials say the sanctions don’t apply to food products. The U.N. said the measures have created obstacles to financing, insuring, shipping and paying for Russian products.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that thanks to the U.N. and Turkey, “it was possible to obtain the necessary written guarantees from Ukraine” that it wouldn’t use the maritime corridor and Ukrainian ports for combat operations against Russia. Russia “considers that the guarantees received at the moment appear to be sufficient and resumes the implementation of the agreement,” it said in a statement.
Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday and made new highs for the move by the end of the session. News that Russia had suspended its participation in the Ukraine grain export agreement met with news that exports from Ukraine were still going on. Russia said that Ukraine sent drones out to harm its Black Sea fleet. The weekly export sales report showed stronger sales but the export demand has generally been poor until now. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there were some showers in the western Great Plains last week. Conditions are called good for development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average BOVE normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 920, 970, and 975 December. Support is at 873, 863, and 858 December, with resistance at 906, 946, and 950 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1018, 1029, and 1036 December. Support is at 960, 950, and 943 December, with resistance at 997, 1010, and 1037 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 993, 1000, and 1016 December. Support is at 971, 965, and 957 December, and resistance is at 993, 1001, and 1034 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher again yesterday on ideas the market was oversold and on spillover buying from the news that Russia wanted to suspend the grain export agreement with Ukraine. The price recovery has been remarkable over the last couple of days but some new selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Some selling was noted as shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved last week. The weekly charts show that trends are up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1744, 1732, and 1725 November and resistance is at 1793, 1799, and 1805 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher again yesterday in response to news that Russia has suspended participation in the Ukraine grain export program put together by the UN. Russia says that Ukraine sent drones out to its ships in the Black Sea to attack . The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 708, 711, and 716 December. Support is at 684, 674, and 672 December, and resistance is at 700, 706, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 426 and 461 December. Support is at 381, 376, and 368 December, and resistance is at 400, 4010, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher as Brazil has a new president in Lula da Silva. He was the president before the current one and has now regained power. There have been protests that he won, mostly by truckers who had benefitted a lot from the policies of the former administration. Lula is also expected to be more environmentally conscious and that might mean less Soybeans down the road along with greater demand for Ethanol and other bio fuels. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was strong. Domestic demand should also be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing Ideas are that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1463 and 1524 January. Support is at 1435, 1423, and 1409 January, and resistance is at 1465, 1481, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 434.00 and 454.00 December. Support is at 420.00, 418.00, and 415.00 December, and resistance is at 431.00 444.00, and 447.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7430 and 8260 December. Support is at 7240, 7110, and 67960 December, with resistance at 7460, 7580, and 7700 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures traded higher today as the loss of Sunil exports from the Black Sea became more possible. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher yesterday along with the price action in Chicago and a sideways tone in the Dollar Index. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 898.00 and . Support is at 873.00, 858.00, and 850.00 January, with resistance at 898.00, 904.00, and 910.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 3970, and 3890 January, with resistance at 4380, 42530, and 4850 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

November
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

December
195 Dec
205 Dec
160 Dec
205 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 1
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 893.00 -31.00 Nov. 2022 up 14.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 924.20 40.00 Jan. 2023 up 15.20
Basis: Vancouver 939.20 55.00 Jan. 2023 up 15.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 977.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 992.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1007.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 992.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 980.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 995.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1010.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 885.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 790.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4250.00 +150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 248.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.736)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 129,271 lots, or 7.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,655 5,728 5,655 5,722 5,712 5,707 -5 4 2,480
Jan-23 5,598 5,628 5,582 5,584 5,572 5,607 35 105,334 145,914
Mar-23 5,500 5,536 5,500 5,517 5,495 5,520 25 11,452 46,313
May-23 5,515 5,559 5,515 5,527 5,512 5,544 32 10,202 16,511
Jul-23 5,497 5,512 5,485 5,487 5,477 5,502 25 1,058 4,034
Sep-23 5,456 5,485 5,455 5,457 5,456 5,473 17 1,221 2,408
Corn
Turnover: 583,331 lots, or 1.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,854 2,861 2,831 2,831 2,846 2,854 8 1,336 12,211
Jan-23 2,885 2,900 2,855 2,857 2,877 2,878 1 373,924 694,952
Mar-23 2,904 2,918 2,874 2,876 2,894 2,895 1 118,868 383,692
May-23 2,932 2,950 2,911 2,914 2,932 2,932 0 31,857 123,402
Jul-23 2,944 2,966 2,927 2,927 2,945 2,946 1 54,218 191,683
Sep-23 2,948 2,962 2,934 2,934 2,945 2,947 2 3,128 7,728
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,834,461 lots, or 76.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,095 5,095 4,940 4,950 4,976 4,996 20 540 5,169
Dec-22 4,627 4,660 4,555 4,565 4,573 4,620 47 94,259 98,112
Jan-23 4,234 4,291 4,194 4,201 4,190 4,242 52 1,340,448 1,724,217
Mar-23 4,040 4,114 4,018 4,033 4,010 4,065 55 53,746 173,057
May-23 3,724 3,768 3,705 3,714 3,684 3,737 53 261,668 501,069
Jul-23 3,656 3,699 3,648 3,660 3,621 3,672 51 36,101 109,326
Aug-23 3,696 3,735 3,684 3,699 3,656 3,707 51 32,009 57,482
Sep-23 3,640 3,688 3,634 3,644 3,608 3,662 54 15,690 27,602
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,121,531 lots, or 94.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,400 8,500 8,400 8,500 8,276 8,438 162 20 3,020
Dec-22 8,396 8,592 8,314 8,540 8,244 8,428 184 21,257 38,087
Jan-23 8,380 8,588 8,288 8,530 8,180 8,416 236 967,504 469,201
Feb-23 8,398 8,606 8,306 8,556 8,174 8,406 232 13,344 68,031
Mar-23 8,410 8,632 8,326 8,580 8,196 8,442 246 8,961 45,104
Apr-23 8,356 8,594 8,302 8,546 8,144 8,416 272 5,125 36,775
May-23 8,282 8,528 8,230 8,460 8,108 8,376 268 93,794 113,553
Jun-23 8,232 8,446 8,160 8,380 8,016 8,274 258 7,967 19,873
Jul-23 8,142 8,362 8,078 8,296 8,046 8,206 160 3,324 3,540
Aug-23 8,040 8,234 8,040 8,212 7,902 8,186 284 6 62
Sep-23 8,006 8,198 7,932 8,138 7,832 8,054 222 206 509
Oct-23 7,938 7,996 7,862 7,954 7,824 7,910 86 23 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,053,574 lots, or 98.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 – – – 10,190 9,850 10,190 340 0 2,213
Dec-22 9,832 10,086 9,760 10,032 9,636 9,926 290 20,986 41,809
Jan-23 9,350 9,606 9,286 9,528 9,176 9,440 264 906,306 428,122
Mar-23 8,832 9,126 8,780 9,056 8,692 8,910 218 11,379 69,572
May-23 8,646 8,992 8,602 8,906 8,504 8,804 300 99,293 104,851
Jul-23 8,536 8,862 8,500 8,788 8,380 8,652 272 9,773 35,561
Aug-23 8,502 8,806 8,460 8,786 8,358 8,628 270 4,044 23,642
Sep-23 8,470 8,768 8,410 8,706 8,330 8,536 206 1,793 1,682
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322