About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 23-Oct 16-Oct 2021 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 96 92 94 94
Cotton Harvested 55 45 44 47
Corn Har vested 76 61 73 64
Soybeans Harvested 88 80 78 78
Sorghum Harvested 77 67 79 69
Peanuts Harvested 79 68 65 70
Rice Harvested 97 94 97 97
Winter Wheat Planted 87 79 86 85
Winter Wheat Emerged 62 49 65 66
Sunflowers Harvested 60 35 51 45
Sugarbeets Harvested 89 80 84 82

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 17 18 37 23 5
Winter Wheat Last Week
Winter Wheat Last Year 7 14 34 40 5

Pastures and Ranges This Week 22 26 29 19 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 23 26 29 19 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 20 22 32 23 3

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 31
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Oct 31, 2022 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
SOURCE: USDA, FGIS;
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 27, 2022
— METRIC TONS —
—————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/27/2022 10/20/2022 10/28/2021 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 147 1,596 1,561 9,743
CORN 422,288 472,594 671,085 4,192,383 5,474,286
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 100 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 300
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 72,154 31,424 77,108 213,269 496,496
SOYBEANS 2,574,060 2,918,705 2,675,334 10,204,854 11,278,684
SUNFLOWER 384 288 96 2,064 432
WHEAT 137,082 133,319 130,721 9,645,874 9,668,076
Total 3,205,968 3,556,477 3,555,940 24,266,591 26,928,041
————————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 02, 2022 186 Oct 28, 2022
SOYBEAN November Nov 02, 2022 440 Sep 29, 2022

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher yesterday and trends turned up on the daily charts on news that Russia had suspended its participation in the Ukraine grain export agreement. It said that Ukraine sent drones out to harm its Black Sea fleet. The weekly export sales report showed stronger sales but the sales were not enough to turn trends up as export demand has generally been poor until now. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. Russia still appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there were some showers in the western Great Plains last week. Conditions are called good for development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average BOVE normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 920, 970, and 975 December. Support is at 873, 863, and 858 December, with resistance at 906, 946, and 950 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1018, 1029, and 1036 December. Support is at 960, 950, and 943 December, with resistance at 985, 997, and 1010 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 993, 1000, and 1016 December. Support is at 971, 965, and 957 December, and resistance is at 993, 1001, and 1034 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher yesterday on ideas the market was oversold and on spillover buying from the news that Russia wanted to suspend the grain export agreement with Ukraine. Some selling was noted as shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved this week at 39,500 tons. The weekly charts show that trends are down. Harvest progress is almost complete in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is at harvest with much more mixed results. Producers are done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1690, 1678, and 1658 November and resistance is at 1707, 1722, and 1736 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday in response to news that Russia has suspended participation in the Ukraine grain export program put together by the UN. Russia says that Ukraine sent drones out to its ships in the Black Sea to attack. . The news sent all ag markets higher, but affected mostly Wheat, Rice, and Corn. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 708, 711, and 716 December. Support is at 684, 674, and 672 December, and resistance is at 700, 706, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 397, 426, and 461 December. Support is at 376, 368, and 347 December, and resistance is at 393, 400, and 410 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher as Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the Ukraine grain export agreement. Russia claims that Ukraine sent drones to attack its fleet of his in the Black Sea. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was strong. Domestic demand should also be increasing for Soybeans as the crush spreads got richer and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing The US is now more than 80% done with the harvest and a turn to higher prices becomes more possible. The rally potential might not be that great unless demand improves, and the US Dollar turns lower. Ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering its old crop Soybeans, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1463 and 1524 January. Support is at 1402, 1381, and 1376 January, and resistance is at 1424, 14235, and 1441 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 434.00 and 454.00 December. Support is at 420.00, 418.00, and 415.00 December, and resistance is at 4341.00 444.00, and 447.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 7430 and 8260 December. Support is at 7240, 7110, and 67960 December, with resistance at 7460, 7580, and 7700 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures traded higher today as the loss of Sunil exports from the Black Sea became more possible. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher yesterday on the Russian news. Russia said it is suspending its participation in the Ukraine grain export agreement as it claims that Ukraine sent drones out to its ships in the Black Sea. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 873.00, 858.00, and 850.00 January, with resistance at 898.00, 904.00, and 910.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3970, 3890, and 3820 January, with resistance at 4200, 4280, and 4380 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast:: Mostly dry today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

November
225 Dec
235 Dec
200 Dec
245 Nov

December
195 Dec
205 Dec
160 Dec
205 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 31
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 878.10 -31.00 Nov. 2022 dn 4.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 909.00 30.00 Jan. 2023 up 14.90
Basis: Vancouver 924.00 45.00 Jan. 2023 up 14.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 952.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 967.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 955.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 970.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 965.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 850.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 770.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4100.00 +200.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 247.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.736)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 180,213 lots, or 10.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,700 5,751 5,700 5,713 5,728 5,712 -16 177 2,480
Jan-23 5,566 5,608 5,534 5,596 5,589 5,572 -17 138,509 152,370
Mar-23 5,480 5,526 5,467 5,505 5,507 5,495 -12 21,420 46,037
May-23 5,504 5,540 5,478 5,531 5,528 5,512 -16 15,435 14,350
Jul-23 5,482 5,506 5,448 5,497 5,497 5,477 -20 2,873 3,584
Sep-23 5,442 5,482 5,437 5,469 5,484 5,456 -28 1,799 1,727
Corn
Turnover: 627,584 lots, or 18.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,846 2,854 2,833 2,853 2,846 2,846 0 2,497 17,905
Jan-23 2,885 2,894 2,862 2,882 2,873 2,877 4 400,463 698,152
Mar-23 2,906 2,910 2,881 2,898 2,894 2,894 0 117,726 364,098
May-23 2,933 2,946 2,920 2,935 2,929 2,932 3 32,754 121,338
Jul-23 2,942 2,956 2,934 2,948 2,940 2,945 5 70,641 186,502
Sep-23 2,951 2,955 2,936 2,949 2,942 2,945 3 3,503 7,883
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,273,743 lots, or 93.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,880 5,100 4,874 5,095 4,853 4,976 123 917 5,295
Dec-22 4,460 4,637 4,451 4,613 4,430 4,573 143 127,082 124,760
Jan-23 4,099 4,255 4,095 4,234 4,074 4,190 116 1,720,223 1,734,127
Mar-23 3,903 4,058 3,903 4,048 3,895 4,010 115 43,432 157,018
May-23 3,614 3,735 3,599 3,724 3,596 3,684 88 284,366 481,431
Jul-23 3,559 3,666 3,547 3,657 3,552 3,621 69 47,713 102,671
Aug-23 3,600 3,699 3,587 3,692 3,594 3,656 62 35,789 49,933
Sep-23 3,559 3,649 3,548 3,639 3,556 3,608 52 14,221 23,861
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,211,667 lots, or 99.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,134 8,340 8,134 8,338 8,056 8,276 220 272 3,005
Dec-22 8,042 8,430 8,002 8,376 8,028 8,244 216 21,048 48,214
Jan-23 7,970 8,386 7,922 8,360 7,970 8,180 210 1,068,374 471,292
Feb-23 7,980 8,390 7,942 8,364 8,012 8,174 162 13,568 65,573
Mar-23 8,036 8,416 7,974 8,388 8,036 8,196 160 9,220 42,214
Apr-23 8,002 8,364 7,956 8,346 7,992 8,144 152 8,715 35,281
May-23 7,916 8,298 7,888 8,274 7,934 8,108 174 77,781 111,538
Jun-23 7,866 8,234 7,818 8,212 7,862 8,016 154 9,657 18,350
Jul-23 7,794 8,142 7,778 8,124 7,778 8,046 268 2,600 1,705
Aug-23 7,750 8,028 7,750 8,028 7,746 7,902 156 32 63
Sep-23 7,710 7,980 7,670 7,980 7,710 7,832 122 399 482
Oct-23 7,824 7,824 7,824 7,824 7,742 7,824 82 1 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,017,263 lots, or 92.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 9,840 10,052 9,840 10,052 9,884 9,850 -34 402 2,213
Dec-22 9,480 9,838 9,442 9,812 9,544 9,636 92 17,007 50,766
Jan-23 9,072 9,342 8,976 9,322 9,106 9,176 70 879,433 427,608
Mar-23 8,562 8,832 8,520 8,808 8,642 8,692 50 10,128 67,975
May-23 8,454 8,712 8,340 8,624 8,504 8,504 0 90,407 101,990
Jul-23 8,320 8,552 8,242 8,520 8,414 8,380 -34 13,615 32,533
Aug-23 8,280 8,504 8,200 8,478 8,356 8,358 2 4,986 22,890
Sep-23 8,208 8,456 8,150 8,424 8,318 8,330 12 1,285 1,801
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322