About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and made new lows for the move as traders continue to worry about demand. The weekly export sales report showed very low sales and parts of Wuhan and Shanghai in China got locked down again. Trends are down on the charts. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession and also about Chinese demand due to the lockdowns there. Production is very short. The harvest is appearing in the market, and the market has responded to it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 72.90 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 71.20, 70.00, and 68.80 December, with resistance of 74.80, 77.60 and 79.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 351,058
: Positions :
: 29,853 44,459 114,743 111,246 163,039 80,206 15,207 336,047 337,447: 15,011 13,611
: Changes from: October 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 3,575) :
: -1,949 6,968 2,589 1,112 -8,281 1,392 1,273 3,144 2,549: 431 1,027
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 12.7 32.7 31.7 46.4 22.8 4.3 95.7 96.1: 4.3 3.9
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 83 102 58 62 49 26 246 234:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week, with nearby months weaker than deferred months. It seems that the bullish production estimate from USDA is now part of the market price. The market has been holding firm on supply side fundamentals. USDA estimated Florida production at 28 million boxes in its latest production reports and are historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production in recent years. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get moistly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 191.00 January, with resistance at 204.00, 207.00, and 210.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,147 :
: Positions :
: 979 9,391 2,341 61 17 4,398 0 44 846 640 957 :
: Changes from: October 18, 2022 :
: -91 -167 -87 -5 14 224 0 -281 -17 189 -602 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 77.3 19.3 0.5 0.1 36.2 0.0 0.4 7.0 5.3 7.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 10 14 6 . . 25 0 . 8 8 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower on Friday and for the week, with ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year the main cause for the selling There are still reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. The crop conditions are called good so producers have been selling although they are out pf the market now due to the weaker prices. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. The rest of South America and Central America are reported to be in good condition. Vietnam has scattered showers in Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.384 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated to scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 168.00, 165.00, and 162.00 December, and resistance is at 180.00, 186.00 and 189.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800 January. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1760 January, and resistance is at 1880, 1910, and 1940 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 268,844
: Positions :
: 21,645 24,729 91,387 91,211 126,231 53,403 17,921 257,646 260,269: 11,198 8,575
: Changes from: October 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 17,207) :
: -1,827 6,363 10,151 7,026 -2,496 746 1,852 16,095 15,870: 1,111 1,337
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 9.2 34.0 33.9 47.0 19.9 6.7 95.8 96.8: 4.2 3.2
: Total Traders: 386 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 89 120 116 109 46 28 326 302:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/25/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
106,721 66,304 58,929 907 5,097 1,576
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 62.1% 55.2% 0.9% 4.8% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
124 41 35 6 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
7,675 14,781 2,905 5,833 1,587 16,869
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 13.8% 2.7% 5.5% 1.5% 15.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 25 13 13 9 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,652 4,977
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 4.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on more ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market. In fact, the world Sugar market is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. UNICA on Wednesday reported increased crushing and Sugar production from increased offers of Sugarcane in its reports released yesterday. Center-south mills crushed 27.7 million tons of Sugarcane in the period, an increase of 40.5% from the previous year. That made Sugar production 1.8 million tons, an increase of 59% and Ethanol production 1.4 billion liters, up 10.7%. Ethanol demand has been soft but ideas are that it can increase with recently higher Crude Oil futures. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. Indian exporters are still waiting for a government announcement on its export policy before offering much to the market. This announcement is expected within a week now. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1730, 1710, and 1680 March. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1720 March and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1840 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 482.00 and 475.00 March. Support is at 481.00, 480.00, and 474.00 March and resistance is at 492.00, 497.00, and 503.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 856,140
: Positions :
: 109,711 81,819 156,906 272,024 520,675 241,957 48,859 780,598 808,258: 75,542 47,882
: Changes from: October 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 9,164) :
: -4,222 7,492 5,171 21,910 -2,653 -2,676 225 20,183 10,234: -11,019 -1,070
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 9.6 18.3 31.8 60.8 28.3 5.7 91.2 94.4: 8.8 5.6
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 48 74 66 74 43 17 211 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/25/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
83,335 33,958 64,473 6,270 4,727 2,559
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 40.7% 77.4% 7.5% 5.7% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
116 35 36 7 4 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,779 1,356 3,604 2,026 1,447 3,235
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
30.9% 1.6% 4.3% 2.4% 1.7% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
37 4 16 10 5 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,904 1,934
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 2.3%

COCOA
General Comments: New York was about unchanged and London closed lower last week and price trends are trying to turn down in London as New York holds to a sideways trend. The grind reports were released in the last two weeks and showed strong demand. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa as a whole for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.559 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2280, 2240, and 2190 December, with resistance at 2350, 2420, and 2430 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1870, 1850, and 1820 December. Support is at 1880, 1870, and 1820 December, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 1980 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2022
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 370,420
: Positions :
: 54,256 80,539 100,443 148,767 136,959 53,672 41,505 357,139 359,446: 13,281 10,974
: Changes from: October 18, 2022 (Change in open interest: 7,422) :
: -435 7,275 3,649 5,732 -7,433 -2,255 3,989 6,691 7,479: 731 -58
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.6 21.7 27.1 40.2 37.0 14.5 11.2 96.4 97.0: 3.6 3.0
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 86 79 55 38 33 22 206 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/25/2022
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
321,787 139,127 211,400 31,011 28,733 17,363
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 43.2% 65.7% 9.6% 8.9% 5.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 50 49 15 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
71,707 8,337 12,028 10,566 6,049 36,062
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.3% 2.6% 3.7% 3.3% 1.9% 11.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 16 23 12 12 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,923 1,815
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322