About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 28
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended Oct. 23, 2022. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2916.3 833.0 249.3 396.7 47.9 1348.3 301.5 90.0 7314.9
Week Ago 2972.2 834.7 279.0 361.9 46.1 1414.1 357.5 100.8 7308.0
Year Ago 2819.0 745.0 321.9 512.8 52.9 1629.5 330.8 42.0 7446.7
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 491.5 148.2 45.7 122.0 4.3 495.8 36.2 5.1 1512.8
Week Ago 471.4 124.9 40.0 97.1 2.9 431.2 31.3 1.6 1329.4
To Date 5848.1 1236.2 648.6 1244.1 26.5 4336.4 1032.3 72.2 15545.0
Year Ago 3999.6 929.7 594.2 1750.2 66.6 4582.7 957.0 82.5 14078.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 546.0 121.4 3.8 52.5 – 273.2 35.0 – 1483.9
Week Ago 493.0 147.5 3.2 60.9 – 362.1 45.4 0.4 1524.8
To Date 5562.8 1116.6 39.2 698.0 0.5 1735.5 745.9 129.1 11728.4
Year Ago 4287.4 794.8 91.9 993.6 7.8 1904.9 670.4 43.5 10626.9
EXPORTS
This Week 533.9 161.7 55.9 80.0 0.6 332.0 10.6 – 1329.4
Week Ago 333.1 130.9 40.9 73.1 1.7 407.3 95.5 – 1194.2
To Date 4203.8 722.0 342.2 720.4 9.6 1470.2 703.7 134.7 9011.5
Year Ago 2958.9 739.3 375.9 924.9 14.6 1443.8 640.7 43.9 8086.4
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 54.3 3.8 18.1 29.5 1.6 209.1 5.7 18.8 401.8
Week Ago 74.7 30.2 17.6 25.8 1.5 246.6 4.0 19.2 480.1
To Date 978.0 132.5 202.6 366.7 14.9 2142.6 57.5 341.5 4654.7
Year Ago 1139.1 63.7 183.2 416.4 11.8 2184.9 70.9 205.8 4640.7
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower in range trading. Futures ran to the highs of the day and resistance areas on the daily charts after the release of the stronger weekly export sales report, then failed as the US Dollar worked higher once again. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. Russia still appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there are some showers in the western Great Plains now. Conditions are called good for development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 824, 819, and 800 December, with resistance at 863, 873, and 906 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 922, 896, and 885 December, with resistance at 960, 985, and 997 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 938, 907, and 885 December, and resistance is at 971, 993, and 1001 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower again yesterday in part on shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses but export demand was improved this week at 39,500 tons. The weekly charts show that trends are down. Harvest progress is almost complete in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is at harvest with much more mixed results. Producers are done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1592, 1588, and 1576 November and resistance is at 1625, 1634, and 1650 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday in range trading. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales and was considered bearish for prices. A sharply higher US Dollar was also bearish. Futures continue to hold support areas on the charts but fail at resistance areas. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 674, 672, and 665 December, and resistance is at 690, 700, and 706 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 461 and 329 December. Support is at 339, 334, and 328 December, and resistance is at 373, 384, and 393 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed and Soybean Oil was lower as the weekly export sales report for Soybeans was strong but the US Dollar moved higher. Soybean Meal closed higher. The US is now more than 80% done with the harvest and a turn to higher prices becomes more possible. The rally potential might not be that great unless demand improves, and the US Dollar turns lower. Ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News: China bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans and Spain bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1366, 1357, and 1349 November, and resistance is at 1398, 1410, and 1414 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 404.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 420.00 423.00, and 430.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7430 December. Support is at 7170, 6960, and 6810 December, with resistance at 7400, 7460, and 7580 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on reports of light export demand and in sympathy with Chicago Soybean Oil. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market and that data has been weaker so far this month. Export data has been strong this month from the private sources and MPOB reported improved demand last month. Production was also higher and ending stocks were up more than 10% to 2.315 million tons. Canola was lower yesterday and November closed sharply lower and back into the recent trading range after a huge move higher on Monday. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 885.00, 873.00, and 861.00 November, with resistance at 940.00, 950.00, and 960.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4200 and 4500 January. Support is at 4000, 3880, and 3820 January, with resistance at 4200, 4280, and 4380 January.
Midwest Weather Forecast:: Showers and storms today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
280 Dec
250 Dec
200 Dec
275 Nov

November
2780 Dec
250 Dec
200 Dec
275 Nov

December
230 Dec
230 Dec
200 Dec
250 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 27
Compiled by Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 876.30 -60.00 Nov 2022 up 9.50
Track Thunder Bay 898.30 30.00 Jan 2023 dn 8.00
Track Vancouver 913.30 45.00 Jan 2023 dn 8.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 902.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 917.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 932.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 922.50 -35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 905.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 920.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 935.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 925.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 825.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 750.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3900.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 235.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.72)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 152,011 lots, or 8.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,772 5,772 5,730 5,739 5,760 5,750 -10 1,425 3,079
Jan-23 5,588 5,614 5,550 5,578 5,562 5,581 19 134,348 179,844
Mar-23 5,501 5,520 5,476 5,499 5,489 5,500 11 12,271 43,936
May-23 5,535 5,544 5,492 5,513 5,503 5,517 14 3,847 10,179
Jul-23 5,506 5,516 5,462 5,490 5,478 5,494 16 88 2,365
Sep-23 5,490 5,493 5,450 5,465 5,461 5,472 11 32 506
Corn
Turnover: 478,613 lots, or 1.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,837 2,843 2,821 2,833 2,837 2,835 -2 14,635 37,378
Jan-23 2,881 2,881 2,850 2,857 2,870 2,864 -6 325,066 697,036
Mar-23 2,898 2,902 2,872 2,882 2,893 2,887 -6 76,515 348,929
May-23 2,932 2,937 2,910 2,916 2,929 2,922 -7 20,839 119,281
Jul-23 2,940 2,947 2,921 2,930 2,940 2,934 -6 39,458 170,454
Sep-23 2,945 2,948 2,924 2,928 2,942 2,936 -6 2,100 7,293
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,512,108 lots, or 60.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,901 4,920 4,820 4,836 4,884 4,863 -21 9,922 12,041
Dec-22 4,452 4,466 4,388 4,405 4,430 4,428 -2 65,309 173,154
Jan-23 4,080 4,104 4,024 4,042 4,078 4,062 -16 1,136,261 1,642,217
Mar-23 3,906 3,928 3,860 3,871 3,908 3,892 -16 21,391 136,645
May-23 3,623 3,646 3,587 3,593 3,622 3,618 -4 221,875 450,733
Jul-23 3,587 3,604 3,551 3,558 3,580 3,576 -4 41,936 85,977
Aug-23 3,664 3,664 3,588 3,600 3,629 3,622 -7 7,876 33,188
Sep-23 3,595 3,613 3,552 3,560 3,592 3,581 -11 7,538 23,384
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,220,908 lots, or 9.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,252 8,290 7,918 7,984 8,216 8,064 -152 1,913 3,380
Dec-22 8,250 8,308 7,902 7,958 8,316 8,094 -222 17,331 59,686
Jan-23 8,200 8,250 7,858 7,926 8,232 8,050 -182 1,079,555 435,663
Feb-23 8,206 8,252 7,880 7,942 8,234 8,062 -172 8,873 59,977
Mar-23 8,196 8,252 7,918 7,964 8,246 8,070 -176 9,321 39,368
Apr-23 8,160 8,232 7,886 7,886 8,228 8,056 -172 11,298 33,121
May-23 8,092 8,176 7,832 7,898 8,176 7,978 -198 82,889 104,731
Jun-23 8,050 8,112 7,738 7,810 8,114 7,932 -182 9,427 15,023
Jul-23 8,006 8,036 7,728 7,728 8,054 7,880 -174 159 145
Aug-23 7,914 7,942 7,702 7,702 7,994 7,766 -228 11 52
Sep-23 7,872 7,904 7,628 7,700 7,924 7,738 -186 129 378
Oct-23 7,804 7,804 7,652 7,652 7,848 7,728 -120 2 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 988,305 lots, or 91.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 10,268 10,268 9,788 9,848 10,268 10,062 -206 516 2,485
Dec-22 9,886 9,920 9,534 9,578 9,942 9,666 -276 15,042 62,674
Jan-23 9,460 9,476 9,104 9,154 9,510 9,258 -252 893,317 447,336
Mar-23 8,902 8,942 8,610 8,648 8,966 8,736 -230 9,506 64,397
May-23 8,736 8,766 8,480 8,520 8,796 8,594 -202 57,572 80,917
Jul-23 8,620 8,652 8,386 8,416 8,678 8,484 -194 8,607 24,225
Aug-23 8,580 8,600 8,346 8,366 8,628 8,416 -212 3,105 21,634
Sep-23 8,550 8,554 8,298 8,348 8,586 8,404 -182 640 1,621
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322