About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday as traders continue to worry about demand. Trends are sideways on the charts as recent price action has been in a trading range. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession and also about Chinese demand due to the lockdowns there. Production is very short. The harvest is appearing in the market, and the market has responded to it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.68 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 880 bales, from 880 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 68,400 bales this year and 7,100 bales next year. Net Pima sales were -700 bales this year and 0 b ales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 75.80, 75.40, and 74.20 December, with resistance of 80.80, 81.60 and 83.00 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly lower yesterday, but nearby months were higher. The market is holding firm on supply side fundamentals. USDA estimated Florida production at 28 million boxes in its latest production reports and are historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricane and in part to the greening disease that has hurt production in recent years. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the storm. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida damage is expected to be very big, with many trees lost as well as fruit lost. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south.
Overnight News: Florida should get moistly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 234.00 November. Support is at 212.00, 209.00, and 205.00 November, with resistance at 219.00, 222.00, and 225.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday in response to reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil. These markets completely ignored the falling US Dollar for the second day. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts for both markets. The crop conditions are called good so producers have been selling although they are out pf the market now due to the weaker prices. Some beneficial precipitation was reported in Brazil last week. More showers and rains are in the forecast in Brazil Coffee areas for this week. Vietnam has also been dry, but scattered showers are now part of the forecast for Coffee areas. The cash market remains strong for Arabica and the demand for certified stocks from the exchange remains a price positive factor.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.386 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.46 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated to scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 173.00 December. Support is at 177.00, 174.00, and 171.00 December, and resistance is at 186.00, 189.00 and 192.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1900 and 1810 November. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1830 November, and resistance is at 1980, 2000, and 2060 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower yesterday on more ideas that supplies of White Sugar would soon be increasing for the market. UNICA reported increased crushing and Sugar production from increased offers of Sugarcane in its reports released yesterday. Center-south mills crushed 27.7 million tons of Sugarcane in the period, an increase of 40.5% from the previous year. That made Sugar production 1.8 million tons, an increase of 59% and Ethanol production 1.4 billion liters, up 10.7% Ethanol demand has been soft but ideas are that it can increase with recently higher Crude Oil futures. Ideas of a world surplus in the coming year are hurting the prices in both markets, but supply remains tight for now. The New York market had been worried that reduced ethanol demand due to taxing policies in Brazil that will force mils down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and the Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil, and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin as EU production was reduced by a hot and dry Summer. Indian exporters are still waiting for a government announcement on its export policy before offering much to the market. This announcement is expected within a week now. India has had a very good production year and estimated Sugar production is now at 36.5 million tons with 9.0 million tons available for export.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in the east and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1790, 1730, and 1710 March. Support is at 1760, 1740, and 1720 March and resistance is at 1820, 1840, and 1880 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 513.00, 510.00, and 485.00 December. Support is at 520.00, 510.00, and 500.00 December and resistance is at 525.00, 533.00, and 541.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday and price trends are trying to turn down. The grind reports were released last week and showed strong demand. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa as a whole for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.549 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2240, 2190, and 2160 December, with resistance at 2310, 2350, and 2420 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1870, 1850, and 1820 December. Support is at 1870, 1820, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 1980 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322