About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 27
For the week ended Oct 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 533.2 0.0 11823.4 12607.1 3126.4 24.0
hrw 67.2 0.0 3267.2 4954.1 729.1 6.3
srw 62.4 0.0 2144.1 1854.1 495.3 6.6
hrs 193.8 0.0 3520.4 3379.9 1051.1 10.8
white 209.8 0.0 2752.4 2269.3 789.1 0.3
durum 0.0 0.0 139.3 149.7 61.8 0.0
corn 264.0 0.0 14095.2 29784.6 10399.7 311.0
soybeans 1026.4 0.0 31550.4 30140.0 24228.7 0.0
soymeal 217.2 0.2 3847.9 4456.2 3437.5 1.6
soyoil 2.5 0.0 31.9 122.6 27.9 0.6
upland cotton 68.4 7.1 8438.3 8369.7 5891.4 1090.0
pima cotton -0.7 0.0 102.7 267.6 82.5 0.9
sorghum 1.0 0.0 311.8 2751.8 276.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 15.5 30.1 11.6 0.0
rice 39.5 0.0 562.8 1077.9 235.8 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed in range trading. Winter Wheat markets were generally a little higher and Spring Wheat closed a little lower. Ideas are that weak demand can continue due in part to the stronger US Dollar. The Dollar was lower yesterday but is still strong overall Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. Ukraine now complains that Russia is denying it the ability to export. Russia still appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. The US central and southern Great Plains have been too hot and dry although there are some showers in the western Great Plains now. Conditions are called good for development of Winter Wheat in the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 794 December. Support is at 824, 819, and 800 December, with resistance at 863, 873, and 906 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 930 and 872 December. Support is at 922, 896, and 885 December, with resistance at 960, 985, and 997 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 938, 907, and 885 December, and resistance is at 971, 993, and 1001 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday in part on shipping delays caused by the low river levels on the Mississippi and as the harvest pressure continued. Demand in general has been slow for Rice for both exports and domestic uses. The weekly charts show that trends are down. Harvest progress is almost complete in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Producers are done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1592, 1588, and 1576 November and resistance is at 1625, 1634, and 1650 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday in range trading. A sharply lower US Dollar tried to help a rally for Corn prices on ides that demand could start to improve. Futures continue to hold support areas on the charts but fail at resistance areas. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon even with rain in the forecast for today. Barge traffic has been reduced. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 674, 672, and 665 December, and resistance is at 690, 700, and 706 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 461 and 329 December. Support is at 334, 328, and 322 December, and resistance is at 373, 384, and 393 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher as the US Dollar moved lower and demand ideas got better. Soybean Meal closed lower on ideas of strong production. The US is now more than 80% done with the harvest and a turn to higher prices becomes more possible. The rally potential might not be that great unless demand improves, and the US Dollar turns lower. The Dollar might have reversed from moving higher on Friday and has been much lower so far this week. The US will still harvest plenty of Soybeans in the next few weeks and ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering, and South America as a whole is expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring as the weather outlook is positive for crops. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are weaker in the Midwest but are strong at the Gulf. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result. However, Chinese data showed huge imports from all sources in September. President Xi has been elected to a third term in China and has stocked the ruling body with his associates so there are fears that nothing will change soon there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1366, 1357, and 1349 November, and resistance is at 1398, 1410, and 1414 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 404.00, 399.00, and 392.00 December, and resistance is at 420.00 423.00, and 430.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7430 December. Support is at 7170, 6960, and 6810 December, with resistance at 72380, 7460, and 7580 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on reports of light export demand The market was closed today. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market and that data has been weaker so far this month. Export data has been strong this month from the private sources and MPOB reported improved demand last month. Production was also higher and ending stocks were up more than 10% to 2.315 million tons. Canola was higher yesterday but faded from its highest levels as some profit taking hit the pit. The Canadian Dollar was strong against the US Dollar again yesterday but this did not seem to affect Canola prices. The Canola harvest is about over. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 915.00, 956.00, and 958.00 November. Support is at 910.00, 891.00, and 885.00 November, with resistance at 940.00, 950.00, and 960.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4200 and 4500 January. Support is at 4000, 3880, and 3820 January, with resistance at 4200, 4280, and 4380 January.
Midwest Weather Forecast:: Showers and storms today. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October
280 Dec
250 Dec
200 Dec
275 Nov

November
2780 Dec
250 Dec
200 Dec
275 Nov

December
230 Dec
230 Dec
200 Dec
250 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 25
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 881.20 -11.60 Nov 2022 dn 0.70
Track Thunder Bay 926.80 30.00 Nov 2022 up 4.00
Track Vancouver 941.80 45.00 Nov 2022 up 4.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Glen Hallick, Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or cell 1-204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 937.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 952.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 957.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 940.00 +10.00 Unquoted –
Dec 955.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 967.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 855.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 765.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4000.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 242.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.715)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 163,624 lots, or 9.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 5,783 5,784 5,713 5,755 5,790 5,760 -30 2,752 3,445
Jan-23 5,561 5,594 5,526 5,588 5,573 5,562 -11 142,058 183,576
Mar-23 5,500 5,515 5,457 5,508 5,503 5,489 -14 14,949 42,553
May-23 5,492 5,530 5,470 5,525 5,514 5,503 -11 3,194 9,970
Jul-23 5,493 5,503 5,451 5,500 5,506 5,478 -28 577 2,418
Sep-23 5,466 5,492 5,436 5,482 5,486 5,461 -25 94 518
Corn
Turnover: 409,097 lots, or 11.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 2,836 2,850 2,826 2,837 2,836 2,837 1 10,858 38,949
Jan-23 2,871 2,884 2,860 2,873 2,867 2,870 3 278,660 709,406
Mar-23 2,894 2,906 2,882 2,895 2,892 2,893 1 66,060 346,590
May-23 2,928 2,941 2,921 2,932 2,928 2,929 1 17,131 116,468
Jul-23 2,937 2,952 2,932 2,944 2,940 2,940 0 33,036 166,073
Sep-23 2,945 2,955 2,935 2,946 2,946 2,942 -4 3,352 7,414
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,281,942 lots, or 51.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 4,875 4,972 4,824 4,903 4,839 4,884 45 14,567 14,901
Dec-22 4,432 4,483 4,394 4,434 4,423 4,430 7 66,933 180,902
Jan-23 4,105 4,113 4,051 4,073 4,078 4,078 0 948,723 1,684,044
Mar-23 3,929 3,936 3,884 3,900 3,911 3,908 -3 20,831 133,351
May-23 3,645 3,663 3,596 3,622 3,647 3,622 -25 192,255 439,605
Jul-23 3,617 3,622 3,563 3,586 3,612 3,580 -32 29,717 80,728
Aug-23 3,658 3,658 3,601 3,631 3,657 3,629 -28 5,526 31,549
Sep-23 3,623 3,625 3,576 3,597 3,616 3,592 -24 3,390 20,993
Palm Oil
Turnover: 917,735 lots, or 75.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 8,180 8,344 8,180 8,232 8,264 8,216 -48 794 4,293
Dec-22 8,280 8,380 8,252 8,252 8,300 8,316 16 11,843 61,537
Jan-23 8,206 8,298 8,160 8,166 8,204 8,232 28 829,830 460,728
Feb-23 8,204 8,298 8,180 8,180 8,218 8,234 16 6,378 57,641
Mar-23 8,208 8,302 8,192 8,192 8,214 8,246 32 6,319 37,720
Apr-23 8,180 8,290 8,166 8,168 8,202 8,228 26 5,115 31,714
May-23 8,150 8,238 8,102 8,104 8,146 8,176 30 49,159 105,277
Jun-23 8,084 8,174 8,046 8,046 8,098 8,114 16 8,176 13,882
Jul-23 8,042 8,082 8,014 8,014 8,024 8,054 30 37 160
Aug-23 7,950 8,012 7,950 7,958 7,946 7,994 48 17 55
Sep-23 7,946 7,976 7,834 7,834 7,886 7,924 38 67 363
Oct-23 – – – 7,848 7,848 7,848 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 762,263 lots, or 72.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-22 10,290 10,350 10,190 10,210 10,282 10,268 -14 544 2,380
Dec-22 9,986 10,046 9,820 9,848 9,942 9,942 0 9,967 65,714
Jan-23 9,564 9,602 9,408 9,424 9,534 9,510 -24 684,725 473,375
Mar-23 8,996 9,034 8,890 8,900 9,006 8,966 -40 7,222 61,146
May-23 8,830 8,864 8,712 8,712 8,810 8,796 -14 53,714 78,236
Jul-23 8,708 8,740 8,598 8,608 8,698 8,678 -20 4,120 22,334
Aug-23 8,656 8,696 8,554 8,560 8,650 8,628 -22 1,688 21,447
Sep-23 8,560 8,652 8,518 8,528 8,602 8,586 -16 283 1,496
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322